Who Will Win at Tonight's Oscars—And Who Should
It's Oscar Sunday, the culmination of two months of Hollywood back-patting and structural gatekeeping. Tonight, the Motion Picture Academy must contend with a host-less show, widespread criticism for its mostly-white nominees, and the shadow of last night's Independent Spirit Awards, which awarded truly innovative—and, yes, better—movies than the Academy even nominated. With expectations already tempered, here's what you have to look forward to tonight.
Best Picture
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
1917
Parasite
What should win: Parasite is the only logical choice. As Candice Frederick put it for ELLE.com, "If we’re talking about the most well-made film of last year—which I think is what the Best Picture category is supposed to be about—then we don’t have to look anywhere else."
What will win: This is a very tight race, and 1917 and Parasite both feel like they have a 50 percent chance. Unfortunately, 1917 might have the slightest of edges, because Parasite is a lock for International Feature. If that's the case, Bong Joon-Ho will likely take home the Director Oscar.
Best Director
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Who should win: In a perfect world, a movie like Parasite takes home Director and Picture.
Who will win: This will likely go to Bong, but if Parasite miraculously lands Best Picture, Mendes will almost certainly take Director.
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Who should win: No disrespect to Renée Zellweger, who is, in fact, fantastic as Judy Garland. But this has been one of the most boring awards seasons in recent memory. It's never any fun knowing exactly who will be taking home the statue ahead of time, and it's particularly disheartening when there's no real competition in the rest of the category. The Academy snubbed Awkwafina, who delivered the only true competition for Zellweger with The Farewell.
Who will win: Zellweger won every major award leading up to Oscar night, and tonight will be no different.
Best Actor
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Who should win: This category opted for safe choices over a lot of extraordinary performances, including Eddie Murphy in Dolemite Is My Name and Robert Pattinson in The Lighthouse. If the Academy wants to right that wrong and award originality, the Oscar will go to Antonio Banderas as a regretful director in Pedro Almodóvar's sublime Pain and Glory.
Who will win: Joaquin Phoenix's Arthur Fleck cleaned up this year, and the actor will likely become the second person to win an Oscar for playing the Joker. (Heath Ledger posthumously won Supporting Actor in 2009 for The Dark Knight.)
Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johannson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Who should win: Again, this category features some truly egregious snubs, including Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers and Zhao Shuzhen's transcendent performance as Nai Nai in the The Farewell. Frankly, none of the nominees stand out here, but Florence Pugh has the slightest edge for her engaging screen presence.
Who will win: Just like the other acting categories, this is a lock, this time for Laura Dern.
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Who should win: Here's a category I could not care less about; not a single one of these performances is particularly inspired. If I was the sole member of the Academy, I'd give this to Kevin Garnett for his standout acting debut in Uncut Gems. If I have to choose from the above five, make it Joe Pesci, the bright spot in the interminable viewing experience that is The Irishman.
Who will win: This is Brad Pitt's award to lose, and he won't.
Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman, Steven Zaillian; based on the book I Heard You Paint Houses by Charles Brandt
Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi; based on the novel Caging Skies by Christine Leunens
Joker, Todd Phillips and Scott Silver; based on characters created by Bill Finger, Bob Kane, and Jerry Robinson
Little Women, Greta Gerwig; based on the novel by Louisa May Alcott
The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten; based on his play The Pope
What should win: Greta Gerwig reinvigorated an American classic without sacrificing the integrity of the source material. Little Women is the obvious choice.
What will win: Inexplicably, Jojo Rabbit—a forgettable movie with serious tonal issues—emerged as the frontrunner following last weekend's WGA Awards.
Original Screenplay
Knives Out, Rian Johnson
Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach
1917, Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
Parasite, Bong Joon-Ho and Han Jin-Won
What should win: Knives Out received a much-deserved nomination for its clever ode to Clue and Agatha Christie novels, but Bong and co-writer Han Jin-Won are again unparalleled for their tight, witty thriller.
What will win: Parasite's WGA win also gives it the edge here.
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