This Is the Ultimate Jack Pearson Death Theory
After one-and-a half seasons of speculating on the subject of Jack's death, This Is Us is finally ready to show the audience exactly how he met his tragic fate. Based on the events of season 2 episode 13, "That'll Be The Day," there are two prominent theories that could predict what happens in the fateful, question-answering episode: Jack dies saving a dog or Jack dies trying to save someone else.
The dog theory makes some sense: Kate blames herself for her father's death, and we now know present-Kate has a strong emotional reaction to the idea of adopting a dog for Toby. ("You come with a lot of baggage that isn't your fault," she tells the pooch, Audio.) So there you go: Jack went back in to save the dog. But do you really think This Is Us would deliver a reveal that simple?
Consider this theory instead: Jack dies trying to save his son Kevin.
On the night of the fire, Kevin fights with his parents and goes to watch the Super Bowl with his girlfriend, Sophie. Later in the night he calls his mom to apologize for his behavior and tells her that he's staying the night at Sophie's house, which Rebecca is fine with, but she crucially (by forgetting or not having an opportunity) does not tell Jack that Kevin isn't coming home. When Jack hears the door slam later in the night he encounters Randall in the kitchen and greets him by saying, "I thought you were Kevin," further proving that he expects Kevin home that night. The note he leaves on the basement door for Kevin says, "If I don't see you before work tomorrow. I love you. You owe us an apology," which reiterates that he doesn't know where Kevin is before he heads to bed.
When the fire starts, only Rebecca knows that Kevin isn't home, but if she is unable to tell Jack that before, say, passing out from smoke inhalation, there's no way for him to know that Kevin isn't trapped in the basement. At this point in the story, Kevin is still injured and would probably require help getting up the basement stairs, and Jack would absolutely charge back into the flames to attempt to save his son - but since Kevin isn't there to find, he'll search in vain and die in the process. It's a solid theory, but it doesn't explain Kate's fixation on dogs, unless the real secret behind Jack's death is something she never told Kevin.
The flashback to the Pearsons right after the fire shows Kate telling Randall that they have to find Kevin because "he has to hear it from me." Kate would know that Jack went looking for Kevin in the house and died because of it, and knows that the knowledge of his father dying for him would destroy an already emotionally fragile Kevin. So what if she lied and told Kevin (and likely Randall and her mother) that Jack went back into the house to save the dog instead? Perhaps Kate came up with a lie that defined her relationship to her brother for the rest of her life.
There is some contextual evidence that Kate is keeping a secret from her brother. They have an intensely codependent relationship in which Kate constantly worries over where Kevin is and what he's doing. When he goes to rehab, she blames herself for "taking [her] eye off the ball," which shows that she feels responsible for his physical and emotional condition (not to mention his whereabouts). Kate keeping such an important secret from her brother might also be the largest part of the burden she bears after Jack's death, which could contribute to contribute to the weight gain we know happens shortly after her father's funeral.
The show won't reveal if Jack dies for Louie, for Kevin, or for another reason entirely until after the Super Bowl on February 4th, so until then it's probably in everyone's best interest to stock up on tissues, water to rehydrate after you cry all the moisture of of your body, and snacks.
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