There Is Still Much Uncertainty Around Queen Elizabeth's Platinum Jubilee Celebrations

The bunting is already out, the Platinum Pudding has been chosen, and at the front of Buckingham Palace the stage is quite literally being set. With less than one week to go until Britain marks the Queen’s 70 years on the throne across a four-day weekend, many are gearing up to enjoy the party. There have been months of meticulous preparations, the final rehearsals are happening now; yet as we approach the moment there is a sense that much uncertainty still hangs over this jubilee.

Unlike in 2012 when the Queen marked her Diamond Jubilee hot on the heels of William and Kate’s wedding and when she and Prince Philip both had busy working timetables, the landscape in 2022 is very different for the royal family. The 96-year-old monarch no longer has her “strength and stay” by her side and she now has mobility issues that have forced her to pull out of a spate of public appearances. With the Queen only able to confirm her attendance at her own jubilee events at the last minute, there are drastically different possibilities for how the celebrations could look and who will be center-stage during key moments.

We know that the monarch will be surrounded by her family during the four days of events but this in itself raises a set of unknowns that were almost impossible to imagine a decade ago. The fractured family dynamics that were laid bare when Harry and Meghan walked away from royal life are set to be inspected on the world stage once again amidst a sense that many relationships remain deeply precarious. And just how many seconds the disgraced Prince Andrew spends in close proximity to his mother while the cameras are rolling has the potential, as Prince Philip’s memorial service reminded us, to totally change the focus.

Even the most stalwart members of the royal family have faced significant challenges recently, reminding us that glowing coverage is by no means guaranteed even for the most popular royals. The Platinum Jubilee tours to realms in the Caribbean will be remembered not for the way they marked the Queen’s milestone in countries where she remains head of state but for the controversy that arose over visuals that were described as harking back to colonial times. Prince Charles and Camilla touched down in Canada amidst calls for him to apologize on behalf of the Queen for the treatment of indigenous children in residential schools. He didn’t, but managed to avoid the outrage that William and Kate’s trip sparked after he devoted a large portion of his opening speech to acknowledging the past and pledging to listen.

Yet recent polling in Canada shows many now want to cut ties with the monarchy and follow Barbados’ recent lead in becoming a republic. While much of the coverage of the Queen’s milestone will be celebratory, it will be interesting to see to what degree conversations about moving on from the monarchy will surface prominently at this time in Commonwealth realms.

Milestones are, of course, a moment to reflect, and the royal family has certainly embraced nostalgia in their tone around this jubilee. Their official twitter account is currently taking us on a tour of the archives by sharing an image a day to represent each year of her reign. Center stage at this year’s Buckingham Palace summer opening are Dorothy Wilding’s first official portraits of the new Queen taken not long after her accession. The BBC was given access to the royal family’s personal video footage for a documentary which focuses on her life as a princess including her engagement to Philip. And while the Queen waved to the crowd from the Gold State Coach for her Golden Jubilee in 2002, this year the same coach windows will be filled with film footage of the the young Elizabeth II on her coronation day.

When the Queen traveled to her coronation in June 1953, the streets were teeming with people despite the relentlessly rainy weather. With the UK's Met Office suggesting that some dry and sunny spells could be on the cards during the bank holiday weekend it seems unlikely that people’s willingness to stand in the rain to see the processions 69 years on will be put to the same test. But a recent poll by YouGov found that a majority of 56% of Britons do not have plans to celebrate the Platinum Jubilee and will not make plans. While it’s hard to imagine that there won’t be cheering flag-waving crowds out in force for Thursday’s Trooping the Colour and Sunday’s Pageant, such scenes can of course never be guaranteed.

Some YouGov polling that the monarchy will enjoy is the Queen’s favorably ratings, with results showing that for the past 10 years a steady 80% of the British public have a positive view of her. These ratings mirror her consistent approach to her role and demonstrate the fact that, despite turbulent times for the monarchy, her popularity remains untouched.

It is possible that the Queen’s motto of “I have to be seen to be believed” could be tested during the Platinum Jubilee celebrations if for some reason she just cannot make it to events despite her wish to be there. It is also possible that the fraught dynamics surrounding Harry and Meghan’s return could play more of a starring role than the family would like and that at the same time Prince Andrew could somehow manage to position himself close enough to the spotlight to cause the perfect storm. It could also be that by the end of the Platinum Jubilee weekend the monarchy has basked in nothing but the glow of positivity and celebration as the world watches this very popular monarch mark her truly once-in-a-lifetime milestone.

The preparations have been extensive and the forecast is good. But only when the day comes will we know for sure.

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