Scorching Temps and Strong Winds Will Trouble Tour de France Riders in Stage 15
Stage 15 - Rodez to Carcassonne - 202.5km - Sunday, July 17
Stage 15 brings the Tour closer to the Pyrenees, with a long, lumpy stage in which intense heat and strong winds could be a factor.
The stage begins in Rodez and heads south toward Carcassonne, a fortified city hilltop not far from the Pyrenees. The first hour should again be intense as riders fight to make the day’s breakaway, and with a tired peloton looking ahead to the Tour’s final rest day, there’s a good chance the break will go all the way to the finish.
There are only two categorized climbs along the route–both Category 3–but the riders will find it hard to get into a good rhythm thanks to a steady stream of uncategorized climbs and descents. And the heat will be some of the worst they’ve seen: record highs are expected, with temperatures nearing 100-degrees. This could be a day in which the UCI’s extreme weather protocol is used to shorten the stage–or at least relax regulations about when and how riders can grab water bottles and musette bags during the stage.
But the heat won’t be the only weather-related concern: strong winds are expected as the race nears Carcassonne. Coming out of the east, it could be strong enough to break the race into echelons, which could both pare down the breakaway and cause problems for the peloton if Jumbo-Visma or UAE Team Emirates try to take advantage of any by catching their general classification rivals off-guard.
The key moment will come with about 56km to go as the race heads through the intermediate sprint in Saint-Ferréol and then almost immediately tackles the day’s second categorized climb, the Category 3 Côte des Cammazes (5.1km at 4.1 percent). At this point, the riders will be facing a steady cross-headwind, and anyone dropped on the climb might not rejoin the group they started it with. The race turns right at Conques sur Orbiel with about 10km to go, giving the riders a cross-tailwind to the finish line. Anyone who’s gapped heading into the turn will likely stay there to the line.
Riders to Watch
Before the Tour, Stage 15 was expected to be one of few chances for the Tour’s field sprinters to win a stage during the second week. But with Australia’s Caleb Ewan (Lotto-Soudal) struggling after crashing on Stage 13, his compatriot Michael Matthews (Team BikeExchange-Jayco) winning Stage 14 after spending all day on the attack, and Belgium’s Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) high atop the Tour’s points classification and working to protect his teammate’s lead on the general classification, there are few teams willing to do the work necessary to keep the break in check and catch them before the finish. So expect teams hunting for stage wins to put multiple riders up the road in an attempt to head into the rest day with a win: BORA-hansgrohe, Bahrain-Victorious, Israel-PremierTech, Trek-Segafredo, and Lotto-Soudal.
If asked to pick one rider to take the victory, we’re going with Denmark’s Magnus Cort-Nielsen (EF Education-EasyPost) who’s been rather quiet since winning Stage 10 in Megève. Cort’s one of the smartest riders in the peloton, and he’s proven himself able to handle the heat. He’s been happy to let his teammates go on the attack in recent days, and we suspect he’s got Stage 15 circled in his roadbook–and with a stage win already in his pocket, he’s got nothing to lose.
When to Watch
The final 75 minutes of stage should be the most exciting–essentially from the intermediate sprint through to the finish in Carcassonne. We’ll be tuning in around 10:30 a.m. eastern, with the stage expected to finish at about 11:45 a.m. eastern. But we won’t blame you for going for a long ride and watching a replay later in the day.
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