Rolex, Patek and Audemars Piguet Prices Will Keep Falling on the Pre-Owned Market, a New Study Says
Over the past few years, there has been extreme flux in the watch market, particularly when it comes to the “big three”—Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet. All the way back in 2018, we began seeing an uptick in demand as the industry experienced a shortage of stainless steel sport watches. Then the pandemic hit in 2020, and the issue with supply became further exacerbated.
Many collectors began redirecting the funds they may have typically spent on travel, dining out or other experiences to growing their collections from the safety and comfort of their homes. At the same time, production slowed further thanks to pandemic shutdowns. Soon, collectors looking to offload models from the big three saw an opportunity to sell in the pre-owned market at premium prices.
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The flood of models from Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet continued through 2021 and into the spring of 2022. “Until May of this year, prices had risen more and more. Then in mid-May, the ratio tipped, more supply than demand.” Tim Stracke, co-CEO of Chrono24 told Robb Report in July. Now, it looks like the pendulum will continue to swing in the other direction, and prices of the big three are expected to drop further as the inventory continues to surge in the pre-owned market.
According to the most recent quarterly report by Morgan Stanley in conjunction with data contributed by WatchCharts( h/t Business of Fashion), prices of the most popular watches from Rolex, Patek and AP have fallen dramatically in the secondary market since the peak in April. This means the price of the Rolex Daytona is down 21 percent, the Patek Philippe Nautilus is down 19 percent and the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak is down 15 percent. The trend has extended to other brands outside the big three as well. For example, the Vacheron Constantin Overseas Ref. 4500V/110A-B483 peaked at $39,900 in the secondary market this past April and can now be purchased for nearly $10,000 less.
The reversal is simple enough to diagnose, according to Morgan Stanley. Supply is now outstripping demand. “We have noticed a significant increase of watch inventory in the secondary watch market year to date as a result of secondhand watch dealers and individual watch investors off-loading their stocks,” the financial services company said.
Despite the price drops, it’s worth noting that the going rate for these watches in the pre-owned market is still well above retail. For instance, the original retail price of the aforementioned Overseas is just $22,500. While the price of a Patek Philippe Nautilus Ref. 5711A may have dropped from $240,000 to $190,000 in the secondary market, it’s still more than five times the original list price of $35,000.
In addition, certain brands are defying the trend altogether. Some examples include Bulgari with a 1 percent increase, A. Lange & Söhne with at 3 percent and Girard Perregaux with a 5 percent bump in the pre-owned market.
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