Get Ready for a Thrilling Final Week of the Vuelta
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After fifteen stages, a young Belgian is on the verge of winning his nation’s first grand tour since 1978, but after losing time to his rivals this past weekend, his grip might be loosening.
The 2022 Tour of Spain (known locally as the “Vuelta a España”) looks like it’s headed toward another exciting finish. Here’s a quick rundown of what went down since the first rest day–and what to expect in the Spanish grand tour’s tough final week:
Who’s Winning?
With only six stages remaining, Belgium’s Remco Evenepoel (Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl) still wears the red jersey as the Vuelta’s overall leader. But after losing time to his rivals on Stages 14 and 15, his days at the top of the General Classification could be numbered. Heading into the final week, he leads Slovenia’s Primož Roglič (Jumbo-Visma)–the Vuelta’s three-time defending champion–and Spain’s Enric Mas (Movistar)–a 2-time runner-up–by 1:34 and 2:01, respectively.
What Happened
The Vuelta’s second week began with Stage 10, a 31.1km individual time trial in Alicante. As expected, Evenepoel and Roglič dominated, finishing first and second on the day. In winning the stage, Evenepoel extended his lead to 2:41 over Roglič–who moved up to second overall–and 3:03 over Mas, who fell one spot on the GC. The next day, Stage 11 ended with a field sprint in Cabo de Gata with Australia’s Kaden Groves (Team BikeExchange-Jayco) taking the first grand tour stage victory of his career.
Stage 12 finished on the climb to Peñas Blancas with Ecuador’s Richard Carapaz (INEOS Grenadiers) timing his attack perfectly to win the stage. After watching his GC chances disappear in the Vuelta’s first week, the pre-race favorite was free to join a 32-rider breakaway that gained over 7 minutes on the chasing peloton. Evenepoel crashed on a descent earlier in the day, but was able to rejoin the group and seemed to suffer no ill effects from the fall on the final climb. Denmark’s Mads Pedersen (Trek-Segafredo) won the next day on an uphill finish in Montilla, taking Stage 13 to solidify his lead in the Vuelta’s Points Competition.
But the real drama was reserved for the weekend, when back-to-back summit finishes on Stages 14 and 15 revealed some cracks in Evenepoel’s armor. Dropped a few kilometers from the top of the tough finishing climb to La Pandera on Saturday, Evenepoel lost :52 to Roglič and :20 to Mas. He did well to limit his losses by riding a steady tempo, but it was clear that the previous two weeks had taken a toll on the 22-year-old. Carapaz won the stage, his second in three days.
Evenepoel lost more time on Sunday’s Stage 15, which finished atop a 2500-meter summit high in the Sierra Nevada mountains. The Netherlands’ Thymen Arensman (Team DSM) escaped from the breakaway to win the stage, but behind him Mas and Colombia’s Miguel Angel-Lopez attacked the GC group. The duo gained :42 and :38 by the finish, with Roglič also cutting another :15 from his deficit.
With more mountains to come in the Vuelta’s final week, Evenepoel’s opponents have to feel good about their chances of snatching the red jersey from his grasp before the race ends in Madrid on Sunday.
What Did We Learn?
After Evenepeol won Tuesday’s time trial, many seemed ready to concede the race to the young Belgian. But the weekend’s summit finishes proved that the race is far from over–and for good reason.
Remember: Evenepoel has raced only one grand tour so far in his career (the 2021 Giro d’Italia), and he abandoned it after 17 stages. He’s also spent the last ten stages defending the red jersey, a tough task for anyone, let alone someone so inexperienced when it comes to the rigors of trying to win a three week stage race.
That inexperience applies to his team as well. Quick-Step’s done a respectable job supporting Evenepoel, but the team’s efforts pale in comparison to those of Jumbo-Visma, who, even without American Sepp Kuss, looks ready to throw everything it has at Evenepoel and Quick-Step. And they have good reason to be motivated: Roglič is getting stronger by the day and looks to be riding with a chip on his shoulder (you would too if you watched your teammate win the Tour de France after you abandoned the race for the second year in a row).
Mas is the Vuelta’s biggest wild card. The Spaniard has finished second twice and looks poised to at least end up on the final podium in Madrid. But with his team in danger of being relegated from the WorldTour this coming off-season, we wonder if his team will let him gamble and go for the overall win, or ask him to play it safe and bank the points that come with a top-3 finish.
What’s Next?
The Vuelta’s final week opens in Extremadura, with high temperatures and more mountains. But first comes Stage 16, which should offer one last chance for the Vuelta’s field sprinters before Stage 21 in Madrid.
The next two days end with summit finishes: Stage 17 ends with a Category 2 climb that looks perfect for a breakaway; and Stage 18 concludes atop the Category 1 climb to Alto del Piornal. This should be one of two chances for Roglič and Mas to cut further into Evenepoel’s lead. Stage 19 covers two laps of a circuit with a Category 2 climb, making it the perfect opportunity for riders hoping to test their form for the upcoming world championships.
Then it all comes down to Stage 20, a mountain-filled ride through the Guadarrama Mountains outside of Madrid. The stage features five categorized climbs, including a finish just past the summit of the Navacerrada, which has now featured at the end of Stage 20 three times in the Vuelta’s history. In 2015, the Netherlands’ Tom Dumoulin entered the day in the red jersey, but collapsed on the mountainous stage, losing almost four minutes–and the Vuelta–to Italy’s Fabio Aru (Astana). Will another Benelux rider suffer the same fate? Or will Evenepoel do just enough to ride into Madrid on Sunday as his country’s first grand tour champion in over 44 years?
No matter what happens, expect another exciting finish to a race that consistently produces them. Our hearts are rooting for Belgium, a nation that hasn’t won a grand tour since 1978. But our heads can’t help but pick Roglič, who’s made a habit of salvaging his season at the Vuelta.
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