To plant or not to plant? A look at frost potential heading into May
In most ways, spring is one of the most wonderful times of the year. Warming weather, blooming flowers, and the return of many outdoor activities people love to do. Gardeners and farmers especially have their eyes on this transitional period as a time to get their crops for the year going, planting those first seeds with the hopes that they will eventually reach their full potential. But as most planters know all too well, you can’t just plant at anytime. The weather especially has to be warm enough that there’s no risk for morning frost, which can kill sprouting plants. So what about this spring? Are we ready? Let’s dive into the facts.
Just from a climatological perspective, in the last 6 years the vast majority of years experienced their last frost dates in late April. Only 2 years, 2020 and 2023, saw frost in the month of May. So far so good. The odds are already looking in our favor as we close in on the last days of April in 2024. But we simply cannot just look at the past. What’s the forecast look like?
Typically when you’re looking for days that can produce frost we look for overnight lows less than 40. Prolonged stretches in the mid to low 40s due to a cold airmass are also something to watch, mostly because of the tendency for models to fluctuate with their values over time. Temperatures will warm up all the way into the upper 80s in places early next week, as lows likewise rise into the 60s. Models also show a dip back into the 40s for lows early in May. As we mentioned previously, those lows in the 40s are not a sure thing for frost, but it means we’ll have to pay close attention. Some places in the Valleys will be a little bit more likely to drop down to the freezing mark thanks to a natural cold pooling effect. The good news overall is that within the next 6-10 days, we’ll see pretty decently above average weather heading into May. Hopefully this is it!
So what’s the verdict? For those outside of the valleys frost chances moving forward are looking slim, so in many cases the growing season will begin for many. We still recommend checking the forecast beforehand though. On the other hand, for those in those valleys maybe wait a week and then reevaluate. There’s still a chance some of the models shift away form the mid 40s but it’ll be a wait and see situation. Nevertheless it’s clear that the cold weather is nearly out the door and we’re well on our way to the summer growing season. Happy planting!
-Meteorologist Jackson Chastain
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