Outlook ’24: Denim Leaders See Challenging Road Ahead
In 2023, the denim industry saw some manufacturers downsize as business dried up, while others invested outside their home countries for speed-to-market benefits. Some companies made proactive decisions to align their businesses with looming sustainability regulations, while others continued to bury their head in the sand. Mills expanded their expertise into new product categories that complement their denim business as others set out to pioneer new fibers and technologies.
Thought leaders in the denim supply chain anticipate another year of highs and lows.
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Here, leaders from the design, manufacturing, fiber, chemical, technology and trade show worlds share their outlook for 2024. While hailing from unique areas of expertise, they share a common belief that the industry needs agility and flexibility to accommodate consumers’ ever-changing demands and the economic shifts roiling the global denim market. Their remarks have been lightly edited for clarity.
Rivet: What lesson did you learn in 2023?
Adriano Goldschmied, Genious Group and Daily Blue founder and designer: We learned once again that denim is keeping changing, new trends and technologies are out and ready to change our business for the better. That’s why denim will never die.
Ebru Ozaydin, The Lycra Company’s global strategic marketing director, denim, wovens and RTW: I think Eleanor Roosevelt’s quote is perfect for my personal lesson: The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.
Sebastian Klinder, managing director of Munich Fabric Start and Bluezone: Trade shows are more relevant than ever. In a sector that goes through such a rapid transformation as the fashion and textile industry, it is incredibly important to create spaces and events where the whole market and all its relevant participants can meet in order to discuss, gain orientation and inspire each other. Fabric platforms will play a pivotal role in connecting manufacturers with buyers, facilitating collaborations, and fostering a marketplace that emphasizes quality and innovation—we just need to rely on our own strength.
Rebecca Larsen, AGI Denim senior manager, business development: The underlying theme of 2023 was adaptability. Clients expressed their needs for adaptability in many ways. The top requests were speed and chase models, leveraging our verticality, embracing co-creation and development, and reducing lead times. At AGI Denim, we’re committed to a continuous evolution of our processes. We achieve this by staying at the forefront of emerging technologies, conducting competitive analyses, and promptly addressing the needs of our customers. Amidst the erratic nature of denim’s current trends—affected by volatile consumer behavior and changing weather patterns—we’ve taken a proactive approach to offer solutions. Our approach involves a combination of fabric innovation and production flexibility. Whether it’s reimagining denim through new constructions like rip stops or exploring unconventional denim silhouettes, we’re dedicated to meeting the evolving demands of the denim market.
Alberto De Conti, head of Rudolf Hub1922: The fashion and denim industries are characterized by constant flux and unexpected developments that reflect the dynamics of consumer preferences and consumer shares of wallet. Rapid changes influenced by social media and global economic changes make the market very volatile. Innovation and adaptability are essential for modern businesses to remain relevant and competitive. We should never forget that we must operate in a constantly changing landscape.
Alice Tonello, Tonello R&D and marketing director: One lesson learned in 2023 is definitely that one should take nothing for granted. To be open to change, persevere and welcome new collaborations with positivity and enthusiasm.
Paolo Gnutti, Isko Luxury by PG creative director: Fortunately, you never stop learning. By character, I am very curious and love to experiment and be [inspired] by what surrounds me, both on a personal level and on a work level. This allows me to acquire new processing techniques, industrial applications and even laundry finishes. 2023 has taught me, once again, that you must look around, listen and assimilate all information because it can only bring you technical enrichment that is never taken for granted.
Rivet: What is one opportunity for the denim market in the new year?
AG: For sure digital printing. We are [in the early stage] but it is a start of something that can change our business forever. Maybe what we did up to now will be “Jurassic Park” in a while…
EO: The denim market has been going through some challenging times since 2021. It becomes hard to predict consumer behavior, understand their needs and expectations. This is due to many factors, from cost-of-living pressures to wavering consumer confidence. However, as an industry, we have seen fantastic developments in the sustainability space, offering design possibilities with next-gen materials. Bioderived Lycra fiber is one of the groundbreaking sustainability innovations in fiber technology.
A key highlight in our Planet Agenda update is our recent collaboration with Qore, a joint venture between Cargill and HELM, to enable the development of bio-derived Lycra fiber made with Qira. This collaboration will allow us to produce Lycra fiber that is made with 70 percent renewable content derived from an annually renewable source, dent corn. A recent LCA screening demonstrates that it has the potential to significantly reduce our carbon footprint when compared to original Lycra fiber.
SK: In the new year, one significant opportunity for the denim market lies in sustainable innovation and co-creation. The growing awareness and demand for eco-friendly and ethically produced denim present a chance for mills and brands alike to showcase and promote sustainable denim materials. Collaborations between manufacturers and brands that highlight environmentally conscious practices can drive the industry and act as a chance for suppliers to position themselves as ingredient brands. This opportunity aligns with the broader trend of consumers seeking transparency and sustainability in their fashion choices as well as with new technological innovations that allow those transparency needs.
RL: We are dedicated to leveraging verticality and co-creation, and with the recent integration of our Creative Agency, we’re positioned to tackle these requests and challenges with fast solutions. Creative Agency is an all-encompassing denim creative hub that seamlessly integrates cutting-edge research, design, development, marketing, and production—a 360° expertly curated, in-house solution at the source. The implementation phase has already begun, and we are genuinely excited about the ongoing utilization of our Creative Agency. This strategic move is aimed at enhancing our co-creation processes, enabling us to collaborate even more with clients and bring innovative ideas to fruition at an accelerated pace. Additionally, we recognize that technological advancements, particularly in digital design and manufacturing processes, hold the potential to reshape the industry. These innovations not only enhance efficiency but also contribute to reducing development and production lead times.
AD: Denim brands have the ultimate opportunity to educate consumers about sound and informed sustainable production initiatives, promote transparency and build stronger ties with a growing segment of socially and environmentally conscious customers. As sustainability becomes an increasingly important factor in purchasing decisions, the denim market has an opportunity to redefine itself in the new year.
AT: In the upcoming year, one opportunity for the denim market could be prioritizing consumers, involving them more in the purchasing process. This means, for example, offering customization or on-demand production, reducing waste by creating exactly what customers want when they need it. This approach not only satisfies preferences but also minimizes waste and environmental impact.
PG: We need to focus on long-term opportunities for the market if we want to bring real innovation and change to the market. For this reason, PG’s latest collections have targeted not only the luxury end of the spectrum, but also the ‘in-between’ end so that we can make luxury accessible to all. That meets the larger numbers that large-scale fashion production requires [while] creating lasting, conscious and responsible fashion.
Rivet: What challenges will the denim market face in 2024?
AG: To keep denim exciting for consumers. Sustainability and circularity are just a tool to do things better, but it is the design that is bringing denim beyond the 5-pocket business, creating new opportunities for traditional jeans but also for an elevated product.
EO: Although we are hoping to see fewer uncertainties and more clarity in year 2024, still things are hard to predict…The challenges are twofold. First, understanding the consumer sentiment—what they want, why they want it, what would really make them excited for and engaged with denim again. How their wardrobes will be evolving? In short, reading consumer minds.
Second, the global sourcing map is shifting to new territories, and new transformative models continue to be introduced. Flexibility and resilience will be imperative for anyone who wants to stand out and be successful.
SK: Despite the opportunities, the denim market will face challenges in 2024, primarily centered around the economic and geopolitical landscape. Fluctuations in raw material costs, trade uncertainties, and economic disruptions can impact the denim supply chain. As fabric platform organizers, navigating these uncertainties to ensure a stable and reliable marketplace for denim manufacturers becomes crucial for us. Additionally, the evolving regulatory landscape, especially concerning sustainability standards, may pose compliance challenges for denim producers.
RL: Staying agile will continue to be crucial in meeting the dynamic demands of the denim market. Continuing to address the downtrend in denim and adapting to the evolving trend of non-5-pocket denim presents a considerable challenge. Our ability to respond to shifting trends will be key in assisting our clients. Adding to the complexity of the situations, client needs for lower-priced items while simultaneously satisfying consumers’ increasing desire for quality goods will be a balancing act. Maintaining cost efficiency and delivering high-quality products will be essential. Navigating through economic challenges requires a proactive approach, and we are committed to addressing these hurdles through strategic planning, innovation, and working closely with our brand partners.
AD: There are a several potential challenges for the denim market in 2024, and one that we somehow hope the denim market could face has to do with stricter environmental regulations. As concern for the environment grows, governments and regulators will introduce firmer regulations on manufacturing processes, waste disposal, chemical and water consumption. Compliance with these regulations is likely to be a challenge for denim manufacturers who continue to favor dubious shortcuts over truly sustainable practices.
AT: A challenge facing the denim market in 2024 could be creating products that have a real value, showcasing distinctive character while respecting different aspects: human rights, the environment, and diverse beauty standards. It’s essential to ensure that consumers are actively engaged in a mindful purchasing process.
PG: The challenge, in my opinion, remains the same: to produce collections that will arouse the interest of a ‘tired’ market and entice the end consumer to buy the product. Price does not make the difference but rather it is the product that will be able to make the difference. Knowing how to do it well and tastefully will be the winning tool for those who can do it.
Rivet: What’s your outlook for the global denim market in 2024?
AG: In an unstable and insecure global situation, we need to be ready to be more flexible and able to increase the speed of bringing products to the markets. I think the market is unpredictable even if things today are doing well. Digitization will be the tool to do that and improve the quality of design. AI will help the industry read the trends better and faster. No sleeping mode for now.
EO: The first quarter will be important. We will see how things start to shape up; however, I believe around April and onwards, the picture will start to be clearer for the industry. Despite all the challenges around cost, it will remain dominant in discussions. We will also start to see more exciting innovations in the pipeline. We will no longer see sustainability as a nice-to-have for a particular product or service; instead, manufacturers will embed sustainability into their processes. So, it will be a must-have or a set requirement, not something seen as an add-on.
SK: The outlook for the global denim market in 2024 is cautiously optimistic. The industry is poised for growth, driven by factors such as the continuous increasing demand for denim fashion, innovation in design, and sustainability. However, global economic shifts, trade tensions, and unforeseen events may introduce volatility. By staying adaptable and responsive to industry dynamics, consumer needs and external influence factors, the denim market can contribute to a resilient and thriving global fashion industry in 2024.
RL: Our outlook for the global denim market is optimistic and marked by positive trends. Inventory levels are showing improvement, providing our clients with freedom and flexibility in design and development. This positive shift allows for more creative exploration and responsiveness to industry innovations. With the emergence of cutting-edge technologies like Circ, Good Earth Cotton, FiberTrace, Renewcell and many others, our commitment to innovation remains persistent. We haven’t stopped or slowed down in the integration of these technologies to enhance our offerings.
AD: Given the ongoing (and growing) cost pressures, the look of the average pair of commercial jeans is likely to remain anonymous and boring. Over the course of 2024, we might see a gradual inclusion of recycled materials that allow brands to create unique storytelling. In terms of manufacturing, the denim supply chain needs to become more resilient and flexible. Nobody knows whether production will pick up again, but given the global nature of the denim industry, companies that can overcome supply chain challenges, such as disruptions or raw material shortages, will be better positioned.
AT: I would like to say that 2024 will be an easy one for the global denim market, but it will certainly be challenging. However, I think it will surprise us with innovative and new and previously unconsidered content.
PG: My expectation is to be able to produce what is lacking—to offer the market a product that will entice purchase. We all have full closets. To make the end consumer find the space, we must give them what they do not yet have. This is my personal challenge and that inspires me in the creation of my designs, to give what is not yet there.
