Officials Say There May Be 100 Million New COVID Infections This Fall and Winter
White House officials are reportedly preparing for 100 million new COVID-19 infections in Americans this fall and winter, according to reports. If the predictions are correct, about 30% of the population would be newly infected with the virus.
An official told The New York Times that the 100 million number is the median of what is expected. Meaning, it’s not a worst- or best-case scenario—it’s somewhere in between.
According to CNN, the Biden administration requested $22.5 billion in supplemental COVID-19 relief funding—for testing, treatments, and to help prevent future outbreaks—in March in a government funding package, but it was removed from the bill. If the funding isn’t approved, the White House will take funding from testing, new treatments, and vaccine outreach and try to stockpile it to have an enough updated vaccines available only for elderly people, a senior administration official told a group of reporters, per The Hill.
The news comes just days after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a report that found 60% of Americans—and 75% of children—had been infected with COVID-19 by February.
The news raises a lot of questions, including what you can do now to prepare for the upcoming surge. Here’s what you need to know.
Is there a new COVID surge coming?
It looks that way. The administration official predicted the next wave of COVID-19 infections would start this summer in Southern states, where people will head inside to try to get out of the heat, per The Times. That will be followed by surges in the rest of the country—including the North—in the fall.
Doctors say the prediction makes sense. “This virus is unfortunately a keeper,” says Thomas Russo, M.D., professor and chief of infectious disease at the University at Buffalo in New York. “It’s going to be minimally like flu where we see intermittent surges and winter respiratory virus season is an unquestionable time when we’re going to see a surge.”
Cases are always going to increase and decrease, says Amesh A. Adalja, M.D., a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “The virus is never to be eradicated,” he suggests, noting that it joins four other types of coronaviruses that are responsible for 30% of common colds.
The next surge of COVID is “already underway,” says William Schaffner, M.D., an infectious disease specialist and professor at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. “We’re seeing increasing numbers of mild cases—that will certainly continue,” he says. “It is possible that, as we get to the fall where people’s immunity from vaccination and natural infection begins to wane and we start to go indoors more, there will be more spread.”
Existing vaccines also “aren’t great at preventing infection,” so there’s likely to be a jump in cases in the fall and winter as people head indoors more, Dr. Russo says. However, he adds, if people are fully vaccinated or have recently been infected with the virus, they’re likely to have more mild cases.
But ultimately, Dr. Russo says, “we don’t know what next winter will hold.”
What to know about new COVID variants
Delta and Omicron variants made headlines when they were the dominant variants, and now BA.2.12.1 is wrecking havoc. The Omicron sub-variant now makes up 36.5% of new COVID-19 infections in the U.S., per CDC data—up from just 3.5% of cases in late March.
“New variants will appear and may be able to get around some of the immunity from vaccination and prior infection but will be unlikely to erase all the protection that exists, especially against what matters: hospitalization,” Dr. Adalja says.
Each variant tends to stick around for six months or so, Dr. Russo points out. While there is talk of creating an Omicron-specific booster, Dr. Russo says its effectiveness at preventing future infections all depends on whether Omicron is actually the dominant variant in the fall and winter. “If a new variant pops up that’s immunologically poorly related to Omicron, we may have more disease,” he says.
Dr. Schaffner also notes that BA.2.12.1 is “a very contagious virus” and will “cause lots of cases” as it continues to circulate.
What to do before the next surge
Dr. Adalja point out that COVID-19 isn’t going anywhere. “Each person has to decide what level of protection they want from COVID based on their own indivisible risk tolerance,” he says.
Doctors stress the importance of getting vaccinated. “Make sure you’re up to date with your vaccination regimen,” Dr. Russo says. “But all of the things we know work in terms of protecting yourself from COVID will still hold for the upcoming winter surge.” That includes masking up when COVID cases are at moderate or high levels in your area, washing your hands well, and doing your best to avoid crowded indoor spaces.
As for what you can do this second, Dr. Schaffner says it’s not a bad idea to stock up on high quality KN95 and N95 masks while they’re in stock and on sale at a reasonable price.
Overall, though, Dr. Adalja urges people to be aware that COVID-19 is something we’ll continue to need to think about. “It is ultimately an unavoidable virus,” he says.
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