With Nadal and Djokovic Injured, Who Will Win the 2023 French Open?

The best tennis players on the planet are descending upon Paris’ famed red courts to begin the 127th edition of the French Open. The 2023 tournament might be the most exciting Grand Slam in the past 20 years and, at the very least, the most wide-open men’s singles clay court major championship since Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic began dominating the surface in 2005.

Since Roger Federer won Wimbledon in 2003, 13 players—including Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic—have won a Grand Slam, and since Nadal won his first French Open in 2005, just one person not named Federer, Nadal, or Djokovic has won the ultimate clay court prize. Simply put, tennis has been a pretty boring affair outside of those three. Now, after about two decades of three-player dominance, things have begun to open up.

When Federer finally waved goodbye to tennis in September 2022, the men’s singles world began to reshape itself. Days earlier, Carlos Alcaraz announced himself as the most exciting tennis prospect since any of the big three stepped onto the court by dispatching Casper Ruud in the 2022 U.S. Open final and subsequently becoming the youngest No. 1 in the history of the ATP Rankings. In January, however, Djokovic responded by winning the 2023 Australian Open, which Alcaraz missed due to injury.

With the second Grand Slam of 2023 finally ready to begin Sunday, May 28th, fans will get an opportunity to see tennis—at least on clay—begin to step into the future.

Why the 2023 French Open Is So Exciting

Nadal is out: The Spanish star pulled out of the tournament last Friday due to a hip injury, while also noting 2024 will be his final French Open.

Djokovic’s injury/form: The Joker is still set to play in this year’s tournament, but he isn’t in top form. He’s battling injuries to his hamstring and elbow, while his clay court season has been anything but stellar. Actually, since winning the Australian Open in January, he hasn’t won a single tournament. He followed up surprising losses at the Monte-Carlo Masters and Srpska Open by pulling out of the Madrid Open with an elbow injury and most recently suffered his earliest defeat at the Italian Open since 2013, after a quarterfinal loss to sixth ranked Holger Rune.

Considering both of the above, just about anything could happen at the 2023 edition of the French Open, so considering the openness of the field, who is most likely to win at Roland-Garros?

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The Contenders

Carlos Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz is the betting odds favorite to win the 2023 French Open. He’s back on top of the Men’s Singles ATP standings and has been in a run of strong form throughout much of the clay court season, winning both the Barcelona Open and Madrid Open. However, after regaining the No. 1 ranking with a second round victory at the Italian Open, he was upset in the next round by then world No. 135 Fabian Marozsan.

The loss may have its benefits, however, giving the Spaniard a longer rest period ahead of this year’s event. Still, Alcaraz has a tough draw with both Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas on his side of the bracket. He has managed to avoid both Italian Open finalists Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune.

Novak Djokovic

Despite his poor run of form, it wouldn’t surprise anyone too much to see Djokovic put the kibosh on talk of the next generation of stars—at least for one more tournament. At 36 years old, there’s no doubt that time is finally beginning to catch up to the super Serbian, but how much time he has left near the top of his game might remain up to him.

The early exhibit from Rome might also benefit Djokovic, giving him a longer time to heal his bothersome hip and elbow. He’ll be on the same side of the draw as Alcaraz and Tsitsipas, but, obviously, Djokovic knows how to win against top opponents.

Holger Rune

Currently ranked sixth in the world, the 20-year-old Dane continues to be one of tennis’ most exciting young prospects. At last year’s French Open, he stunned fellow 2023 contender Tsitsipas to reach his first career Grand Slam quarterfinal. His 2023 clay court season has been equally impressive. He defeated Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner on his way to the Monte-Carlo Masters final where he lost to Andrey Rublev. Then, he made it to the finals once again at the Italian Open, defeating both Djokovic and Casper Ruud, before losing to Medvedev.

Rune has managed to avoid Alcaraz, Djokovic, Tsitsipas, or Rublev on his side of the draw. However, a semi-final against Medvedev remains a strong possibility. In good news, the bottom half of the draw is pretty much wide open with Rune, Medvedev, Sinner, and Ruud all having an opportunity to win. Better yet, Rune’s play has begun to resemble that of two time-winner Djokovic: A powerful forehand, speed, and impressive stamina make him a great returner who might be strongest from the baseline.

Daniil Medvedev

Where’s ​​Daniil Medvedev been since winning the 2021 U.S. Open? After winning his first major title in September 2021, Medvedev followed up by not winning any Grand Slams in 2022. His 2023, meanwhile, remains up in the air. He lost in the third round of the Australian Open, but won his first ever clay court title when he defeated Rune in the Italian Open final.

Medvedev finds himself in the wide open bottom half of the French Open bracket. With no Alcaraz, Djokovic, Tsitsipas, or Rublev, Medvedev seems primed to turn his clay court weakness into a specialty.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Fifth-ranked Tsitsipas remains somewhat of a question mark. At just 24, he still has plenty of time to turn himself into tennis’ top young player, but is still yet to win a Grand Slam. In January at the Aussie Open, he made it to his second ever Grand Slam final—having previously lost to Djokovic at the 2021 French Open final—but once again suffered defeat at the hand of the Serbian. Tsitsipas’ clay court season has not been particularly successful as he is yet to win a title.

As a former French Open finalist, there is no counting out Tsitsipas. His path to the final, however, will be a challenge. A possible quarterfinal match against Alcaraz, followed by a possible semi-final versus Djokovic would be hard for anyone. Add in the Greek’s recent history against both, and it’s easy to understand why a championship would be quite the feat despite his history at the event.

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Jannik Sinner, Casper Ruud, Dominic Thiem, Stan Wawrinka

Ruud, Thiem, and Wawrinka have all reached the final of the French Open before, with Wawrinka having even won the title over Djokovic back in 2015.

While Ruud is currently ranked fourth in the world, his dip in form during the beginning of the clay court season has made him seem like a less reliable top prospect than one might expect. Still, he finds himself in the bottom half of the bracket, meaning anything could happen.

What happened to Dominic Thiem? After losing to Nadal in both the 2018 and 2019 French Open finals, Thiem now finds himself ranked No. 91 in the world. Nothing about his 2023 has suggested a title will be in reach, but with all of his experience, maybe, just maybe, there’s something left in the 29-year-old’s bag of tricks?

Just ahead of Thiem in the ATP rankings sits one-time French Open champion Stan Wawrinka at No. 88. While it's been a few years for the Swiss star has been a major force, he did defeat Rune at the 2023 edition of Indian Wells (a.k.a. BNP Paribas Open).

Sinner is one of the most exciting prospects in the men’s tennis world. The 21-year-old Italian defeated Alcaraz at the 2023 Miami Open, before losing to Medvedev in straight set in the final. At last year’s French Open he made it to the fourth round and with his seat on the unpredictable side of the bracket, anything remains possible.

Vegas Odds*

● Carlos Alcaraz +150

● Novak Djokovic +225

● Holger Rune +700

● Daniil Medvedev +800

● Stefanos Tsitsipas +1,000

● Jannik Sinner +1,100

● Casper Ruud +1,600

● Dominic Thiem +6,600

● Stan Wawrinka +6,600

*According to Vegas Insider