Jeff Probst Breaks Down a "Reckoning" in the 'Survivor 46' Premiere

"All of you believe you can win this game. But it's simply not true."

Jeff Probst told this to the castaways of Survivor 46 as he scans the crowd during the season's opening minutes. Despite the rough waves that brought the 18 new players to the beach, the Emmy-winning host and executive producer continued to rock the boat, raining down truths like the precipitation currently pouring down on them all.

"Right now, there's at least one of you that cannot win. No matter who you go to the end with, it won't matter. Something about your personality is not gonna gel with this group, and you won't get the votes. That blind optimism right now, that specific point of view you're bringing into the game, is gonna work or not work. But it's your single biggest weapon."

Perhaps nobody visualized that blind optimism more than this season's first boot, David Jelinsky. In my interview with him before the game began, the 22-year-old already declared himself the winner. He came into the season wanting to be called by his last name, a distinction earned by legends of Survivor yore. And, true to that "legend in the making" credo, Jelinsky spent the first three days grabbing for every opportunity that came his way. He volunteered for the Sweat task immediately upon hitting Yanu beach, and said he'd go on the first journey of the season before even opening the scroll from the boat.

Unfortunately for Jelinsky, that overzealousness only ended in one result: Failure. A misunderstanding of the word "several" caused him to quit the Sweat task halfway through, finding success impossible. On the journey, when tested with a social strategy game, he quickly veered from deception, giving up his vote for hopefully some goodwill with the other tribes.

"I think there's maybe a bit of a reckoning coming for the self-proclaimed 'superfan,' Probst says to me. We talk immediately following the first Tribal Council of the season, bathed in the warm glow of the various flames lit around the incredibly impressive Asian temple-inspired set. "If you're coming out here to experience everything, that's an approach. But that's a different approach than 'I'm coming out here to play the game based on what is laid out for me.' I feel like Jelinsky's point was, 'Hey, man, I want to taste it all.' Well, everything he tasted, turned sour."

Related: Everything We Know About Survivor Season 46

Even from a physical perspective, Jelinsky was a (barely) walking example of Murphy's Law. Attending the first Tribal Council (which Parade was fortunate to attend as part of a set visit out to Fiji), he ran through a laundry list of other things that had befallen him in the first few days. The toil from the Sweat challenge wreaked havoc on his feet, and he lacerated his toes. He discovered he was allergic to coconut, and with no flint, that means he can only really rely on water as a source of sustenance. Except he also lost his water bottle. Even when he tried to take his game into his own hands and go idol hunting, a crab pinched him, perhaps a symbol of the island being out to get him.

And yet, despite all the red flags in front of him, Jelinsky saw nothing but green. The Tribal Council was a rough one for him, as the rest of Yanu talked at length about how much they disagreed with his choices and how he was actively hindering the tribe. Probst was also calling out Jelinsky's lack of logic, between his attempt at blaming his failure on the misuse of the word "several" and his hesitation to say that he had quit the Sweat task. It even got to a point where Bhanu Gopal openly said, "I love that kid, but I can't take it anymore."

But blind optimism is a hell of an enabler. Jelinsky was voted out unanimously, as voting confessionals from his former allies Kenzie Petty, Tiffany Nicole Ervin, and Q Burdette critiquing his open and sloppy gameplay. The slot machine salesman silently walked out, not giving a word to the people who all crushed his dreams. And, shockingly, in his final words, he admitted that every ounce in his body told him that he would survive the night.

"What's fascinating is that what it takes to come out here is sometimes your biggest liability," Probst tells me, "and that is you have to believe you can win. You have to believe you can win. But in that blind optimism of believing you can win, you sometimes don't see where your fallacy is. You don't see your Achilles heel, or you're blind for a reason."

Read on for my on-set interview with Probst, where we spoke about Jelinsky's downfall, the struggles of Jess Chong, and where he sees the season going after its first vote.

Related: Jeff Probst Reveals the Secret Theme of Survivor 46

Let me start with a bold question. Is there anyone in recent memory who had a worse first three days on Survivor than Jelinsky?
Well, Jelinsky started moments in--you were there, Mike--when he said, "I'm gonna go by my last name." And he referenced how all the great players have last names. So he walked into it pretty bold, saying, "I'm going to proclaim myself as a future great player. And it kind of went downhill from there. 

So at Tribal Council, we see Jelinsky actually say, "The theme of the season is 'everything goes wrong for Jelinsky.'" During the night, he proceeded to provide a laundry list of things that had happened to him only a few days in the game. From your perspective, how much do you think he had the "cards stacked against him," as he claimed, versus clearly the tribe's mentality of, "You dealt your own hand"?
Well, it's a fundamental approach to life. And maybe this will change him. But he clearly came into this game feeling that things happen to him. Like he said on the Sweat challenge, it wasn't achievable, right? And the journey, he was in a no-win situation. And the crab attacked him. And his feet got cut up, and he can't sleep on bamboo. He lost his water. All of these things happen. I liked Jelinsky. That's why he's on the show. But I was a little surprised by how often it seemed to be things happening to him, rather than, "This is my situation. And here's what I need to do with it."

I agree. I think it might be something he can take away of learning that he has much more control over things than he thinks. That he can say, "Yeah, I shouldn't have volunteered for the journey," rather than, "It was a no-win situation. I wanted to give the others extra votes so we have more numbers going into the merge."
Yeah, it's a really good point. And maybe even when he reads this interview, because I don't want to lecture. I'm not, I'm just watching. But I think everything you said lines up with me, which is you can't have it both ways. You can't volunteer for the Swweat, and then quit, but not own the fact that you quit. And if you want to quit, that's fine. Or if his feet were really messed up, that's legitimate. But there's a way of owning it of saying, "Man, I messed up. I volunteered for that. I had Q with me and I couldn't finish and I feel awful." Then the conversation is over.

But when you start stringing stories, like, "Jeff had said 'several hours.' Several is seven. It's in the word." Then you just start losing credibility, where people are like, "I don't know if I can trust you because you can't even see your own truth." People make mistakes on Survivor every day. I mean, that's the game. You're forced to make decisions, and usually they're wrong. But it's how you own it. I think that's probably the lesson that Jelinsky is going to lose, because clearly he thought it was Jess tonight. And all five people were against him. And even though he put on a show to pretend that he thought it was him, he clearly did not really believe it was him. Which is kind of amazing, given all the things he said tonight.

Yeah, there was this odd almost quadruple bluff happening where everyone else knew they were voting for him, but he didn't. But he also didn't was Jess to play her Shot in the Dark, so he's playing up that he feels in danger when he actually is. There was so much talk about walking out of Tribal with unity. And they had it, just against him, because of the fact that he would step up for things and then end up stepping back.
And I think there's maybe a bit of a reckoning coming for the self-proclaimed "superfan." If you're coming out here to experience everything, that's an approach. But that's a different approach than "I'm coming out here to play the game based on what is laid out for me." I feel like Jelinsky's point was, "Hey, man, I want to taste it all." Well, everything he tasted, turned sour. It ended up hurting his tribe. So I don't know if it's as simple as just saying, "I want the experience." Survivor is a very complicated game because you're playing with other equally qualified players. And if you give them a slight opening, they'll take you out. 

Related: Meet the Full Cast of Survivor 46

On the literal other side is Jess, who, much to her own chagrin, was set up as another possible target. Clearly she was having a tough time mentally processing everything. You mentioned in Tribal about how much sleep and food deprivation can affect players in the beginning. But we have seen someone like David Wright be able to pull themselves out of that official nosedive and go on to soar. From your vantage point, where does Jess go from here?
Hopefully, it's what you alluded to, which is it's temporary. Because I don't think she's putting on a show. And I think sometimes maybe when you feel that you're not 100%, then you get a little paranoid about it. And then that makes it even harder. But, if they win to challenge and they get flint and they can make fire, maybe that will help, that things will get a little easier for her. Because she's very bright. This is a tough way to start. And if she doesn't recover, and they come back to Tribal, I think she might be in trouble.

Speaking to that, Yanu finished in last place for both of the challenges, and failed the Sweat task. Now, we certainly have seen tribes pull themselves out of losing early as recently as Tika. Do you feel that Yanu can recover from these first few days?
It's two "yes"es. Yes because now they're five, which means that the next challenge, both tribes will have to sit somebody out. So that might weaken them a little bit, we'll see. The other yes is because your entire tribe doesn't have to survive. You just have to get to the merge, where the game breaks open. And sometimes, those tribes that suffer so much, the bonds for the people that do remain are really, really entrenched. And they can be a powerful duo or trio or four people, whatever it is. So yes, Yanu is still alive.

Let's go back to the first day. As of late, you've opened the season with some sort of statement about the game of Survivor. In season 43, for example, it was all about the "social contract" that gets determined by every installment's group of players. For season 46, you focused on "blind optimism." There's at least one of them who started the game not being able to win, and 17 of them ultimately will not. What goes into your thinking behind these opening speeches, and what made you decide that angle for this season?
It's this group. And it really honestly always comes usually like the morning of or maybe the day before. It's not a pleasant feeling. Sometimes there is a little bit of panic of, "What is it we should talk about in the beginning?" But I just sat down the day before and went through all the players. And the conclusion I came to was, this is a really interesting odd group. And so let's just have some fun. So I came up with a bunch of weird questions just to see what would happen.

[Author's note: What Probst is alluding to, where he opened the season by asking the contestants a series of non-sequitur questions that were separate from the game, ultimately did not make the final cut of the episode. However, you can check out our eyewitness account of what is likely the funniest opening in the show's history.]

And what's fascinating is that what it takes to come out here is sometimes your biggest liability, and that is you have to believe you can win. You have to believe you can win. But in that blind optimism of believing you can win, you sometimes don't see where your fallacy is. You don't see your Achilles heel, or you're blind for a reason. And it's interesting that it came up at Tribal, that Kenzie said, "I still have it." Even after being at Tribal, I still believe that's a very positive strength. You just got to just trudge forward.

I totally agree that this seems like a very funny, quirky, and positive group. But how long do you think that is going to last, especially once the elements kick in and the game starts kicking up? I guess the fact that, to your point, someone just lost every challenge and blindsided somebody and is still feeling great speaks to everyone's vibe.
I agree. I think Kenzie is a bright light of positivity. But there is always an upside to Tribal. And that is that you're getting rid of somebody which changes the dynamic. Even if you don't want to vote that person, out the fact that they're gone, it's now different. It's a different group. Six became five, and those five are going back right now. They're back at camp, and they're talking about what happened. And I'm certain that they're saying, "Listen, that's what we needed. We're now going to be good, and we're going to win." Blind optimism will carry them into the next challenge. blind optimism doesn't win a challenge, though.

Related: Jeff Probst Calls Survivor 46 “One of the Most Vicious Seasons Ever”

Talking Sweat vs. Savvy, this is the first time since introducing this in the new era that both tribes failed their individual tasks. [Author's note: Season 45 also had both tribes fail, but the show opted to go for a combination Sweat/Savvy challenge.] How surprised were you by the results?
Well, the Savvy didn't surprise me as much, only because Savvy is trickier. It's mental. And sometimes you can be good at a certain type of puzzle and not good at another type of mental riddle or something like that. The Sweat is the one that surprised me because we test these thoroughly. We know they're achievable. It might take you those last two or three minutes. It might come down to the last few grains of sand. But they're achievable.

The failure was the quit. And that's why I couldn't let Jelinsky off the hook. Because you're not going to get away with saying that the challenge was poorly designed, because it's not true. And I'm sure Q's truth is something to the effect of, "Look, if I had had another partner, we would have done it. The minute I saw him deciding to quit, I realized, 'Well, I'm not going to I'm not going to kill myself if we're going to fail. So let's just end it.'" That's a smart move by Q because they're gonna rely on him a lot physically. But yeah, I was surprised. I wouldn't say that this was a Sweat that they failed; I don't think that's happened yet. This was a Sweat that they quit. They opted out of it. And then Jelinksy threw the sand timer because they were frustrated.

We saw Tiffany find an idol on Day 3, which is remarkably early, especially in the new era where the idols are based around accomplishing multiple tasks. Does that surprise you at all?
Well, it doesn't surprise me. Here's the thing, Mike. The team that hides the idols, it's the same team. And they hide them in the same types of places. Meaning they're designed to be found within the first nine or 10 days. We don't know when; you never know. Sometimes people look for an idol for five minutes, and they find one. Other times, a person will look for an idol for 15 days all day and never find it. It's not so scientific that you can say, "Let's have this be found on 2:00 pm on Day Three." And I love that women are finding idols. Because that's been a topic lately. And I think it's fueling women to say, "Why aren't we finding more idols?" And maybe that's changing.

The Survivor 46 contestants came out to play after just watching season 44, which instituted the birdcage idols and the idea of production-created fake idols. How much did that paranoia inform the way you approached idols this season?
Well, each season, we resort to just start with a fresh, clean slate. And just think about what have we done? What might they be anticipating? And then we decide, do we want to lean into what they're anticipating? Or do we want to go in a different direction? Honestly, if you look at our track record, there's no way to predict. Because sometimes we'll do the same thing two or three times. And then sometimes we'll do something completely different. The player doesn't know.

But the smart player comes in with a lot of history. And they make some assumptions. They know where idols are probably hidden. What they don't know is if there are any hidden. Maybe they aren't hidden this year, maybe it's something different. That's the thing that really works to our advantage is that they just don't know. And sometimes the audience will go, "Oh, my God, I don't get it. They just walked right past it." Well, I mean, the jungle is not easy. I mean, there are thousands of trees out here and rocks and things you can look under. There's a little bit of luck. You pick the right path and look up at the right moment.

Well let's talk perhaps your own blind optimism about this season. We've gone through the marooning, the first challenges, and the first trip to Tribal Council. What are you expecting to happen over the next 23 days of Survivor 46?
I'm very excited! They're fun. The marooning made me feel good because we work all year to find these people. But then we put them in a group, but we never test that group dynamic. We don't know until they show up and I ask them those first questions. All the producers, everybody's going, "Well, here we go."

One of the questions was, "What's the perfect bowl of popcorn?" A really innocuous question. But one person said, "I like it this way," and another person said, "You're out of your mind. That's not how you eat popcorn." That's when you know, "Okay, we got something happening." Because when you can take just a basic little question about popcorn and have people being funny and revealing personality, then you know something's happening there. So I feel really good. I still stand by what I said. There are people right now that I won't mention who cannot win this game. It's already been revealed in the first three days, but they don't know it.

Next, go behind the scenes of the Survivor 46 marooning.