Farmers' Almanac Releases Winter 2024 Forecast For Canada

Ian Greenwood
·3 min read
5

Another fall, another round of pre-season long-range winter forecasts.

Up next in the rotating cast of predictions is the Farmers' Almanac's (not to be confused with the Old Farmers' Almanac) prognostications for Canada's winter in 2023 and 2024.

Here's the gist of it.

<p>Courtesy: Farmers' Almanac</p>

Courtesy: Farmers' Almanac

Aside from British Columbia, the Farmers' Almanac is calling for chilly conditions throughout Canada this season, hence the yearly title for the forecast: "The BRRR is back."

I'm into it. As a Montana resident, Alberta and British Columbia are a quick jaunt away for me, so I wouldn't complain if resorts like Fernie, Lake Louise, Kicking Horse, and Revelstoke got their fair share of cold temperatures because, y'know, cold temperatures mean less rain.

As for precip totals, Canada's Great Lakes region is apparently the place to be. Here are the breakdowns of predicted snowfall from the Farmers' Almanac:

"It’s not winter without snow, right? Where should snow-lovers rejoice? The Great Lakes region! If you live or plan to visit areas around the Great Lakes, you should get your fill of snow as our forecast points to above-normal amounts. Both coastal regions of Canada will see a mixed bag of wintry precipitation. British Columbia will see another wet, white winter with temperatures just above and below the freezing mark."

It's not winter without snow, right? I'm in agreement there, even if Mother Nature seems to be on a different program during some ski seasons.

The Farmers' Almanac also provides specific storm advisories for certain months and regions in Canada:

  • "Wintery mix of rain, sleet, and snow in the second week of January over the Pacific Coast, Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes."

  • "Heavy mountain snows over the Rockies and Prairies during the first week of February."

  • "A coastal storm affecting Quebec and the Maritimes during the second week of February, followed by a wave of frigid air."

  • "March could go out like a lion with stormy conditions nationwide; a white Easter Sunday seems possible for southern Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada."

Now, of course, the question is this: "Are the Farmers' Almanac forecasts any good?"

During my brief ski writing career, I've had the chance to dig into these ponderings, and overall, my take is this after speaking with a handful of meteorologists:

Long-range forecasting is tremendously difficult, no matter who you are or what resources you have access to. While meteorological techniques have vastly improved over the past 100 years, their reliability drops precipitously as prediction timelines increase.

Here's how OpenSnow forecaster Sam Collentine put in a recent blog post explaining NOAA's 2023-2024 winter weather predictions: "Long-range forecasts are rarely accurate. These [NOAA's] forecasts cover three months, but we know that skiing quality improves and degrades with storm cycles that last a few days to a week."

Does that mean you should chuck any long-term Farmers' Almanac forecast you see? Probably not.

Meteorological outfits with more antiquated sensibilities, while perhaps more woo-woo than heavy hitters like NOAA, have been in the biz since before I was born -- their guesses are certainly better than those of your friend who took a meteorology 100 course in college.

With that in mind, buy in as much as you'd like -- just keep that grain of salt handy.

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