David: While the headline isn't reflective of the information Karl Smith compiled here, the reference to the Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW) benchmark figures for the Labor Department is encouraging. The tone of the article leaves something to be desired, but the accuracy of the QCEW data is what stands out and something I've written about in posts for several years. It's tough to hide BLS bias when U.S. Census Bureau figures show the seasonally adjusted (guess)timates to be so obviously off. They favor and support the deep state narrative, while often being contradicted by dozens of less publicized and scrutinized figures in the monthly Employment Situation Report. The QCEW figures are hard to argue and tough to hide from when they’re included in workforce analysis.
I've done extensive research on the topic and post occasionally, as well as maintain a website which charts BLS, QCEW, and Employment & Training Administration (ETA) data. The bottom line is the more accurate and supportable the data is, the more devastatingly bad the economy showed itself to have been from 2009 through 2011. We were still down millions of jobs through election season in 2012 from the workforce Obama inherited from "W" Bush. The ETA had the economy down 5.7 million jobs through the final calendar quarter of 2012, and Obama began his second term in January 2013 still down about 5.2 million jobs according to the only other tax-based count used by the Labor Department.
I've formerly written press releases in a different field that regularly reached hundreds of thousands, sometimes millions. My material often appeared word-for-word with a byline attributing printed and posted material to a supposedly different author in the media. Regardless, the important thing was to get the information out and give it some reach. It's fair to say I know more than most about the inner workings of the media, and I readily recognize lazy, often biased reports.
A significant part of this story appears to have drawn from a post I made Friday before midday, regarding the QCEW and actual, supportable data from the Labor Department. If you have an interest in reading more about figures which show just how much better the economy is doing than most sources are passing along to the public, I'd recommend reading at least one of three posts my screen name and image should link to from Friday after the ESR was released and left millions shocked over a dynamite report that contradicts the left's flimsy, politically motivated recession narrative.
Here's a taste of alternative figures I didn't include in those earlier reports, but they're germane, even key in my estimation, to comparing the economies of Donald Trump and Barack Obama, who was consistently lavished with praise for results that were mind-numbingly slow by boot-licking media and deep state globalists with an agenda. The author and editor here deserve some credit for posting material that identifies the BLS seasonally adjusted guesstimates as less than reflective of current economic conditions.
Through 34 months of MAGA change, the 95,634,000 Not in Labor Force( NiLF) count remains a surprising 140,000 less than the final full month figure under Obama, at 95,774,000 entering 2017. The 80,686,000 count inherited by Obama spiked 15.1 million, 60% of whom were considered working age Americans between 20 and 64 years of age. From late in the second calendar quarter of 2016 across Obama's final months, the purge of working age Americans topped 69%, skewing BLS unemployment rates artificially low.at 4.8 and 5.1 (seasonally adjusted, & not seasonally adjusted %) entering 2017. If the 9,060,000 eligible long-term unemployed banished to NiLF were counted as unemployed at the 62.5% participation rate in place at the start of 2017, the final unemployment rate for the Obama administration would have been 8.7%.
Midway into the Trump Administration's third year, job losses have slipped to 965,415 monthly and 222,788 weekly, besting annual or longer average counts since the workforce was half its current size. New claims are down 40.2% since Americans' persistent jobless recovery period under Obama averaged 1,613,798 monthly.
As of November 2019, the BLS showed 8,418,000 jobs added on the CPS (HD Table A-1, nsa), reaching 158,945,000 from January 2017's baseline 150,527,000 count. The Labor Dept.'s regularly publicized figure, total nonfarm employment (CES ED Table B-1), grew by 10,351,000 from January 2017's unadjusted 143,273,000 count through November 2019's 153,624,000 total nonfarm figure.
