Here’s Exactly When Mark Cavendish Could Break the Record During the 2023 Tour de France
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Monday’s Stage 3 should end with the Tour’s first field sprint, which also means it’s the first chance for Great Britain’s Mark Cavendish (Astana) to set a new record for the most stage victories in Tour de France history. (He’s currently tied with Belgian legend Eddy Merckx for the most all-time with 34.)
This is perhaps the most mountainous Tour in decades, with even the Tour’s easiest days containing a categorized climb or two, so Cavendish–and the Tour’s other sprinters–have fewer chances than usual to win stages and earn points toward the Tour’s green jersey competition.
Looking over the route, while the Tour’s organizers identify eight stages as ending in sprints, we see only six of them being suitable for Cavendish–mainly because there’s a climb or two in the final hour of racing that might drop the 38-year-old (and others) from the leading peloton. That leaves six chances for the Manx Missile to beat Merckx.
Here’s a rundown of each of these six stages along with the time they’re expected finish–in case you want to tune-in and (hopefully) watch Cav make history:
Stage 3 - Amorebieta-Etxano to Bayonne (187.4km) - Monday, July 3
The first French stage finish of the 2023 Tour should end in a field sprint, despite the four categorized climbs in the first half of the stage as the race winds its way out of the Basque Country and into France. But the sprinters’ teams have enough road left to reel back any breakaways, and while there’s an uncategorized bump of a climb inside 20km to go, we don’t see it being too much of an issue for Cav this early in the Tour.
The sprint itself will be fast: there’s a 180-degree right-hander at 2km to go and the race heads downhill toward the 1km to go banner before rising in the final 500m toward the finish line. If Cav’s team can keep him at the front and out of trouble, he could break the record here.
Expected Stage Finish Time: 11:30 a.m. EDT
Stage 4 - Dax to Nogaro (181.8km) - Tuesday, July 4
Even on his best day, Cav often struggles in the mountains. So with two hard days in the Pyrenees up next, it would be in Cav’s best interest to win one of these first two sprint stages. Stage 4 begins in Dax, near the home of France’s Andre Derrigarde, who won 22 stages at the Tour between 1953 and 1964, which puts him fifth on the all-time list.
A pretty straightforward stage, and the only categorized climb (the Category 4 Côte de Dému) comes with 27.4km to go. It could shed a few sprinters if they haven’t recovered well enough from the Tour’s first three stages, but given how few chances they have this week, they’ll fight like heck to make it over with the leading peloton.
The finish takes place outside of Nogaro on the Circuit Paul Armagnac, a motorsport track outside the town. The riders will complete about half of the circuit inside the final 3km, a sight we’re looking forward to seeing. Cav’s been a motorsports fan all his life, and would certainly appreciate breaking the record here.
Expected Stage Finish Time: 11:20 a.m. EDT
Stage 7 - Mont-de-Marsan to Bordeaux (169.9km) - Friday, July 7
If Cav makes it through the Pyrenees, he has a field sprint in Bordeaux to look forward to. Bordeaux is one of the Tour’s most famous cities when it comes to field sprints, and it’s been the site of some of the race's most memorable bunch gallops. Cav won a stage here himself back in 2010, his fourth stage win in that year’s Tour.
Some hard cornering between 4km- and 2km-to-go could make things dicey, but once the riders make it through it’s essentially a straight shot to the finish on a boulevard alongside the Garonne River. This is Cav’s last chance for a stage win before the race heads into the Massif Central for a series of hilly stages–and a summit finish on the famous Puy de Dôme.
Expected Stage Finish Time: 11:15 a.m. EDT
Stage 11 - Clermont-Ferrand to Moulins (179.8km) - Wednesday, July 12
After a Rest Day sandwiched between some hard days in the hills, Cav and the rest of the Tour’s remaining field sprinters get a chance to fight for the stage win in Moulins at the end of Stage 11, which could be their only chance for a win during the Tour’s second week.
By no means is this an easy stage, with three categorized climbs and a jagged profile throughout the first two thirds of the route. But things settle down considerably after the final climb–the Category 4 Côte de la Croix Blanche–which the riders summit with 61.3km left to race. So there’s time for the sprinters’ teams to reel in the breakaway.
This the first Tour de France stage to finish in Moulins, but the town frequently hosts March’s Paris-Nice. The “Race to the Sun” last visited in 2019, with Ireland’s Sam Bennett outsprinting Australia’s Caleb Ewan and the Netherlands’ Fabio Jakobsen to win the stage.
This is the last chance for Cav to win a stage before the race heads back into the mountains–and surviving them is no guarantee. If he hasn’t broken the record yet, he might not get another chance. But let’s think positive…
Expected Stage Finish Time: 11:15 a.m. EDT
Stage 18 - Moûtiers to Bourg-en-Bresse (184.9km) - Thursday, July 20
Any sprinters who survive the Alps will be rewarded with a relatively flat stage from Moûtiers to Bourg-en-Bresse. By this point in the Tour, everyone is exhausted, so a breakaway could escape early and go the distance if the GC contenders want an easy day and the sprinters’ teams are too tired to chase.
The run-in to the finish in Bourg-en-Bresse is fairly straightforward with a few roundabouts and a couple of corners inside the final 5km. The road bends to the right inside the final kilometer, but the riders shouldn’t have to hit their brakes to make it through safely. With a Category 3 climb 28km from the finish of Friday’s Stage 19, this is Cav’s last chance to win one before the final stage into Paris.
Expected Stage Finish Time: 11:40 a.m. EDT
Stage 21 - Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines to Paris (115.1km) - Sunday, July 23
The Tour ends on Sunday, July 23rd with its traditional finish on the Champs-Élysées, a stage that Cavendish has won four times–a Tour record. But his last visit didn’t go so well–and had it–you might not be reading this (because we’d have little reason to write it).
Here’s the story: Cav came into Stage 21 of the 2021 Tour de France having already scored four stage wins in that year’s Tour, a miraculous achievement that was made even more amazing given the fact that the Manx Missile wasn’t even supposed to be racing and was called-up at the last minute by his Deceuninck-Quick Step team. He came into the final stage having equalled Merckx’s record, but he faltered in his last attempt to take the record for himself. Belgium’s Wout van Aert won the stage instead. Quick Step then left Cav off its roster for 2022, denying him more chances to make the record his own.
Now riding for Astana, Cavendish announced at May’s Giro d’Italia that this season would be his last. So assuming he has failed to win a stage and survived what is perhaps the most mountainous Tour of his career, he’ll enter Stage 21 with one last chance at history.
Expected Stage Finish Time: 1:30 p.m. EDT
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