How the Democrats Can Flip The House in the 2018 Midterm Elections, Part 9

Over the ten weeks between Labor Day and Election Day, as Democrats and Republicans battle it out for control of the House, we're taking a look at 30 of the most competitive races in the 2018 midterm elections: Where are these key districts, and what are they like? Which member is trying to keep their job? Who wants to take it away? And for whom might generous donations of your valuable time and money make the greatest difference, if you were so inclined to make them? Democrats need to win only 23 seats to earn the gavel for the next two years, and nothing terrifies Donald Trump and friends more than what they plan to do with it.

You can read earlier installments of this series at the end of this post, or a complete guide to the 2018 Senate races here.

California 45th: An Elizabeth Warren protégé sounds the alarm on student debt

The district: Another wealthy slice of inland Orange County, including Irvine, Orange, and Tustin. (Go Anteaters?) It's pretty diverse—25 percent Asian, and 18 percent Hispanic. McCain and Romney won by comfortable margins in 2008 and 2012, respectively, but in 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 5.4 points.

The incumbent: Mimi Walters, a former investment banker and two-term congresswoman who is now attempting the same tightrope walk as most California Republicans in purple districts: Be Trump-y, but not too Trump-y. Although she's voted with the president a solid 98.9 percent of the time over the past two years, Walters has pivoted to local for the campaign, attaching herself to a GOP-backed ballot initiative that would repeal the state's controversial gasoline tax. She has also blamed climate change for exacerbating Southern California's wildfires, which is both (1) probably correct and (2) given her lifetime 4 percent rating from the League of Conservation voters, a little late!

The challenger: Katie Porter, a UC Irvine law professor tapped by then-California attorney general Kamala Harris in 2012 to be the state's independent bank monitor of banks in aftermath of the housing crisis. Both Harris and Elizabeth Warren, who taught Porter at Harvard Law School and later worked with her at the CFPB, have lent Porter their endorsements. She supports Medicare for All, and as you might expect, she speaks frequently about the need to address the student loans bubble, the specter of which will be haunting this writer's dreams until 2029.

From the archives: In May 2016, by a 217-206 vote, the House passed an amendment to a spending bill that would have prohibited the government from contracting with entities that discriminate against LGBTQ employees. As voting wound down, however, majority whip and likely Paul Ryan replacement Kevin McCarthy took to the floor and began lobbying individual Republican legislators to change their minds. Seven of them did, and Mimi Walters was one of them. The amendment failed in dramatic fashion by a single vote, as outraged Democrats chanted "Shame!" at their counterparts across the aisle.

Unlike some of her GOP colleagues, Mimi Walters knows that bigotry is wrong. She just can't bring herself to stand up to it.

Minnesota 2nd: Angie Craig wants a rematch

The district: The suburbs across the Mississippi River to the south of Minneapolis and St. Paul. Red Wing, home of the company that makes a mean pair of work boots, is in this district. It's mostly white, and pretty wealthy. Trump eked out a 1.2-point win here.

The incumbent: Former conservative talk radio host Jason Lewis, first elected to Congress in 2016. Lewis is, to put it delicately, a vile shithead with misogynist spaghetti for brains. Here's Lewis in 2012, after Rush Limbaugh famously called then-Georgetown Law student Sandra Fluke a "slut" for arguing that ACA should mandate that insurers cover contraceptives.

In November 2012, on women voters for whom health care is the most important issue:

Elsewhere, Lewis has asserted that the same arguments put forth for legalizing same sex-marriage could be made in support of slavery. He clarified that he would not own a slave, though, because he's a good guy—it's just that other people could, maybe. As reported by the Minneapolis Star-Tribune:

Again, this is a sitting member of Congress we're talking about here.

The challenger: Angie Craig, a former healthcare executive who lost to Lewis by two points in 2016, when a third-party spoiler candidate took home a critical eight percent of the vote. (Sound familiar?) Craig is married to a woman and has four boys, but she's made clear that this race isn't what Lewis thinks of her personal life. "I'm fairly offended by some of the things Jason Lewis has said," she told the Minnesota Post, "but I’m more offended by the votes he’s taken in this Congress." Those votes include ones in favor of the tax bill and the Affordable Care Act, which he has promised to try and repeal again if re-elected this fall.

Jason Lewis is human garbage: As you might expect, Lewis has some takes about families like his opponent's. As unearthed by BuzzFeed News:

Angie's oldest son, Josh—whose adoption came after a three-year court battle—had this to say in response:

I submit that "Jason, I'm doing just fine" would make an excellent epitaph for this man's career in Congress.

New Jersey 7th: Home of the lamest carpetbagging accusation in politics

The district: A bunch of New Jersey commuter towns east of New York City, where the average household income is nearly $160,000. The president's favorite golf course is here. Clinton beat Trump by a single point.

The incumbent: Four-term Republican Leonard Lance, whose recently managed to squander much of his moderate reputation—he opposed both the ACA repeal effort and the tax bill—by stating that he "tend[s] not to believe" the sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court justice and serial liar Brett Kavanaugh. As the New York Times notes, Lance attempted to clarify his remarks by stating that he had made them under the assumption that Christine Blasey Ford would not testify before the Senate, but Lance can't afford to make mistakes, and this might prove to be enough of one.

The challenger: Tom Malinowksi, a Polish-born Rhodes Scholar who moved to New Jersey as a child and served in the Obama administration as Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor. He was instrumental in lobbying Congress to end the government's use of torture and black sites in the War on Terror, and earned special recognition from the late senator John McCain in 2013 for his efforts. In a district in which the high cost of living is squeezing out middle-class constituents, Malinowksi is focusing heavily on affordability, advocating for a $15-per-hour nationwide minimum wage and guaranteed paid parental leave.

Doesn't everyone have Google Maps by now?: Lance has dismissed Malinowksi as a D.C. insider and shameless opportunist, claiming that he "moved into the district exclusively for the purpose of running for Congress." As Malinowki's campaign manager noted, this is a curious assertion, given that the candidate's residence in Rocky Hill is located 10 minutes from his childhood home in Princeton. A fact-check of this estimate indicates that it may have been a smidge high.

Here is a good rule of thumb for politicians: If you're going to call your recently-relocated opponent a "total carpetbagger," you should make sure they moved more than 4.2 miles away from mom's house first.

Previously in "A House-Flipper's Guide to the 2018 Midterm Elections":

Part 1: Illinois 6th, California 10th, Maine 2nd

Part 2: New York 19th, Kansas 2nd, California 25th

Part 3: Kentucky 6th, California 39th, Ohio 1st

Part 4: Iowa 1st, Virginia 7th, Washington 8th

Part 5: Colorado 6th, Michigan 8th, Kansas 3rd

Part 6: New Jersey 3rd, Texas 32nd, New York 22nd

Part 7: California 48th, Minnesota 1st, Texas 7th

Part 8: Minnesota 8th, Illinois 12th, North Carolina 9th