Deloitte Predicts Holiday Retail Sales Will See Lower Growth

·2 min read

Ahead of the peak 2022 holiday shopping season, Deloitte has shared it expects holiday retail sales will increase between four and six percent – 12.8 to 14.3 percent in e-commerce holiday sales – compared to the 2021 season.

In contrast to the low-growth predictions for the 2022 holiday shopping season, in 2021 holiday sales grew by 15.1 percent during the November to January time frame.

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The lower projected growth, said Daniel Bachman, U.S. economic forecaster at Deloitte, “reflects the slowdown in the economy this year. Retail sales are likely to be further affected by declining demand for durable consumer goods, which had been the centerpiece of pandemic spending. However, we anticipate more spending on consumer services, such as restaurants, as the effects of the pandemic continue to wane.”

Additionally, Bachman said that while inflation will help raise dollar sales, retailers will see less growth in sales volume.

“As inflation weighs on consumer demand, we can expect consumers to continue to shift how they spend their holiday budget this upcoming season,” said Nick Handrinos, vice chair and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution and consumer products leader at Deloitte LLP. “Retail sales are set to increase as a result of higher prices, and this dynamic has the potential to further drive e-commerce sales as consumers look for online deals to maximize their spending. Retailers across channels who remain aligned with consumer demand and offer convenient and affordable options can be well positioned for success this season.”

Overall, Deloitte is predicting that e-commerce holiday sales will reach between $260 billion and $264 billion this season, with total holiday sales totaling between $1.45 trillion to $1.47 trillion during the November to January time frame.

In preparation for retailers’ competitive season ahead, Rod Sides, global insights leader at Deloitte, told WWD that “given some lingering challenges in the supply chain on certain goods, retailers may be able to capture available spend by clearly displaying in-stock quantities to drive immediate action for hot items. Finding ways to create more value via bundling or unique offers for loyal customers may also help spur demand.”

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