China May Be Putting Its Nukes on High Alert
According to a report by the Union of Concerned Scientists, Beijing is considering a small but scary change to the way it stores its nuclear weapons. China may be reversing its decades-old nuclear policy and putting its nuclear weapons on permanent high alert. This would make China's nuclear deterrent more credible, but also heighten the possibility of accidental nuclear war.
China is thought to have approximately 250 nuclear weapons. Unlike most nuclear powers, China keeps most its weapons at a low state of readiness, partially disassembled and hidden in underground tunnels. It would take hours to ready a Chinese nuclear weapon for launch. The rationale had been that as a relatively poor country, there was little China could do about a full-scale nuclear strike. Instead, it would ensure that at least a handful of missiles would survive such an attack and be used to destroy enemy cities. The reasoning was that nobody would trade Washington D.C. or Moscow just to rid China of nuclear weapons.
The United States and Russia, both of whom maintain a "launch on warning" nuclear posture to deter surprise attack, maintain networks of early warning radars and satellites to warn them of incoming missiles and bombers. China doesn't even bother with that, reasoning that just having the weapons is deterrent enough.
That puts incredible pressure on a nuclear power to launch its weapons before they are destroyed-the "use them or lose them" dilemma
China's nuclear policy may sound primitive, but it makes a lot of sense. China has not engaged in a nuclear arms race with other countries, and so it has not boosted its arsenal to tens of thousands of weapons as the U.S. and USSR did. This means China is far less likely to blunder into an accidental nuclear war, tricked by radar malfunctions or computer anomalies into thinking an enemy first strike is minutes away. That puts incredible pressure on a nuclear power to launch its weapons before they are destroyed-the "use them or lose them" dilemma.
But now, China too may be moving to the "launch on warning" nuclear policy that governs US and Russian nuclear arsenals. According to the UCS report, China is considering deploying its first early warning satellites, similar to the U.S. Air Force's Space-Based Infra-Red System (SBIRS)-a network of satellites designed to warn of attack by watching for the launch plumes of nuclear missiles.
Why is China doing this? The report says that a combination of accurate U.S. nuclear weapons, U.S. hypersonic weapons, and ballistic missile defenses could destroy China's nuclear arsenal in a surprise attack and then shoot down any surviving weapons-effectively making America invulnerable to attack. No more nuclear deterrent or mutually assured destruction.
The UCS report highlights a number of recommendations to avoid the situation, including lowering America's (and presumably Russia's) nuclear posture, limiting national ballistic missile defense so it is only useful against rogue states with very small arsenals, and acknowledge that the U.S. is vulnerable to Chinese nukes.
China is no longer a poor country. It has options. One of those options is to go to a hair-trigger nuclear war posture. If it does, it will join the club of nations that could start an accidental nuclear war.
