China had nearly 2 million excess deaths in 2 months after ending ‘zero-COVID’ policies, study finds

Britney Heimuli
·3 min read
24
Family members in protective gear collect the cremated remains of their loved one bundled with yellow cloth at a crematorium in Beijing on Dec. 17, 2022. China’s sudden reopening after two years holding to a “zero-COVID” strategy left older people vulnerable and hospitals and pharmacies unprepared during the season when the virus spreads most easily, leading to many avoidable deaths, The Associated Press has found.

After China lifted its zero-COVID restrictions last year, almost 2 million excess deaths occurred during the two-month period of December 2022 and January 2023, according to a study from the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle released Thursday.

The study, published in the JAMA Network Open, said there was an estimated 1.87 million excess deaths, with the majority of those deaths occurring among adults ages 30 and older after the policy was lifted.

All provinces in China, except for Tibet, were observed in the study.

The Deseret News has previously reported on China’s zero-COVID policy, which included using “drones to remind people to wear masks,” extensive lockdowns and mass testing.

The restrictions kept “COVID cases and deaths to a minimum for much of the pandemic. But when the government abruptly lifted the restrictions in December after rare mass protests across the country, the virus was unleashed on 1.4 billion people who had barely been exposed to it,” NBC News said.

Related

Study details

Researchers analyzed search engine data and obituary data from two universities in Beijing and one in Heilongjiang, according to the study.

Joseph Unger, biostatistician and health services researcher at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, told The Independent, “Because the Chinese population had been largely shielded from infection with limited natural immunity and was not fully or well vaccinated, the sudden introduction of widespread COVID-19 infection had a devastating impact.”

According to NBC News, satellite imaging and other evidence revealed an increase in activity at crematoriums and funeral homes, as well as internet searches for words like “cremation” and “burial.”

Researchers added that, “These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and public health experts and are important for understanding how the sudden propagation of COVID-19 across a population may be associated with population mortality.”

Related

Reuters reported that in January, officials from the Chinese government said there were about 60,000 COVID-19 deaths resulting from the policy lift.

As new variants were being discovered, health experts asked for more data from China since the number of hospitalizations and deaths kept growing, according to Reuters.

Leaders in China “declared a ‘decisive victory’ over COVID” in February, said The Independent.

Unger said that “despite China being the first place to be hit by COVID-19, it was able to quickly suppress the disease through stringent measures over an extended period,” per The Independent.

Jin Dong-yan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong, told NBC News that “the way the study estimates data is not ‘scientifically rigorous,’ but it is nonetheless an ‘objective’ and ‘beneficial’ attempt.”