We Are Bracing for Uncertain Skies at Paris-Roubaix
Paris-Roubaix weekend can only mean one thing—all eyes are on the weather forecast. The women ride on Saturday, April 6, and the men on Sunday. For the women, it’s 148.5 km with 17 sections of cobbles totaling 29.2 km. of ornery stones. For the men, it’s 160 km. with 29 different sections of cobbles totaling over 55 km. of hell. But the big question is, will all those stones be wet?
Despite all the superstars going into the women’s and men’s races and the beautiful bikes and equipment to gawk at, the Paris-Roubaix weather often gets people most excited. In France, March and April tend to be fairly wet, but there have been many years with completely dry cobbles. Where’s the fun in that? This year, the entire course has seen more than a few good soakings in the weeks leading up to the race, but time will tell whether we get to see the mud indeed fly.
What do wet cobbles mean for racers? Crashes, mainly, and a lot of stressful, technical riding. But that’s why we love Paris-Roubaix. While bird-chirping sunny skies might be lovely for some, epic conditions can also make this event memorable. The more grit, the better (for spectators). It’s a proper race of attrition.
The Weather
The weather is predicted to be partly sunny and warm on Saturday, with a high of 71 degrees Fahrenheit that morning and 14 mph winds. There is no chance of rain so far, so it should be a dry race for the women.
On Sunday, however, it will be much cooler for the men, with temperatures in the low 60s, nine mph winds, and a 25% chance of rain. At 73% humidity, even if it doesn’t rain, the riders will undoubtedly be uncomfortable. This means things could certainly get sloppy, but probably not disastrous. It’s only the most epic conditions that get remembered years and even decades later.
Memorable Bad Weather Editions
October 3rd, 2021- Slippin' and slidin'
The last genuinely rain-soaked Paris-Roubaix was in 2021. After nearly two decades of dry spells, fans had their muddy dreams come true. The race was initially scheduled for April 11, 2021, but because of the pandemic, it was postponed to October 3, 2021. This was also the first edition of the Paris-Roubaix Femmes held the day before the men’s race.
Highlights included plenty of rubber-side-up and absolutely mud-caked bodies and faces. Italy’s Sonny Colbrelli won the race after a three-person sprint on the track. He beat out Florian Vermeersch and Mathieu van der Poel at the line—the first time an Italian rider had won the race since Andrea Tafi in 1999. Lizzie Deignan took the inaugural women’s win.
April 14, 2002 - Windy and wet
Before 2021, the previous mud fest was in 2002, for the 100th edition of the Paris-Roubaix. Not only was there rain back in ’02, but there was also wind—so much wind.
Rouleur described the race: "Deceptive rays of sunshine greeted 190 riders at the start in Compiègne. They didn’t last long. Only 41 made it to Roubaix inside the time limit. Seven hours later, their hearts lightened and faces blackened.”
Johan Museeuw made history that year by winning his third Paris-Roubaix after an attack 40 km from the Roubaix Velodrome.
April 10, 1994 - Snow turns to mud
And back in 1994, the famed course saw snow—and not just a few flakes—enough that there was real talk of canceling the race. Snow blanketed the area, but the cobbles were relatively clear. Race day was cold and windy, and riders opted for everything from front suspension to the rear suspension to a classic rigid bike. And as expected, the day also required plenty of equipment changes as it unfolded.
More than 50 km from the finish, Belgian Andrei Tchmil secured a lead with Johan Museeuw chasing. Cyclingnews reprinted Procycling’s contributing editor Peter Cossins’ report of the scene, “Museeuw continued with a dogged pursuit of his Lotto rival, but failed to get on terms before his rear suspension packed up. This required a rapid bike change, which was hobbled by his pedals jamming up so badly with accumulated muck that he couldn’t release his shoe until a GB-MG team mechanic intervened and finally wrestled it free. By the time he got going again, Tchmil was out of sight.”
Cossins went on to recount watching the 47 finishers that day, “‘It was brutal,’ said George Hincapie, beaming with delight having finished on his Roubaix debut. Tchmil apart, all had tales of woe, notably runner-up Fabio Baldato, who crashed on three occasions and punctured on five. ‘I could have been up there contending for the win if I’d had a couple less crashes,’ said Greg LeMond as he headed for the Roubaix showers.”
Things likely won’t be as brutal as these select few Paris-Roubaix days, but all eyes will certainly be on the skies and the cobbles this weekend to see what Mother Nature has in store.
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