We Asked ChatGPT to Help Us Generate a List of Predictions for the 2023 Tour de France.
We’re just weeks away from the start of the 2023 Tour de France, which means it’s the perfect time to make some bold predictions as to how this year’s race might play out. To help us with this year’s list, we turned to everyone’s favorite chatbot, ChatGPT, to see what it “thinks.”
Here’s what it came up with, along with our commentary as to just how right (or wrong) it might be.
1. “A newcomer will surprise everyone and claim the yellow jersey. In a shocking turn of events, a previously unknown rider will emerge as a dominant force and secure the coveted yellow jersey at the 2023 Tour de France. This underdog's extraordinary performance will captivate fans worldwide.”
As much as we’d love to see it, this sounds a little far-fetched. The defending champion, Denmark’s Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma), heads into the Tour as the overwhelming favorite; and Slovenia’s Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates), winner of the race in 2020 and 2021, looks to be the only rider capable of beating him (if he recovers from a broken wrist in time to get himself in shape).
The only “newcomer” capable of defeating these two might have been Belgium’s Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quick Step)–but he’s not racing. The 23-year-old won last year’s Tour of Spain and was leading this year’s Giro d’Italia before testing positive for COVID-19 on the eve of the Giro’s first Rest Day. Everyone hopes his team will make a last-minute decision to send his first Tour de France, but all signs point to 2024 as the year in which he makes his Tour debut.
2. “The fight for the green jersey, awarded to the best sprinter, will be fiercer than ever. Several top sprinters will compete head-to-head in thrilling finishes, resulting in a closely contested green jersey competition throughout the Tour.”
We like the chatbot’s thinking here, as this year’s green jersey battle will be tough to predict thanks to the lack of a clear favorite and an unconventional course. The defending champion, Belgium’s Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) has made it clear that he’s not chasing the jersey this year.
And the course makes life really hard for field sprinters, so don’t expect someone to reel off four stage victories on their way to winning green. Instead, we’re wondering if an all-rounder who doesn’t care about the General Classification will take home the jersey for winning the Tour’s Points Classification–someone like France’s Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal-Quick Step). With so many mountain and transitional stages–especially during the Tour’s tough opening week–Alaphilippe looks poised to make an early bid to wear green (and maybe yellow).
3. “After recovering from a career-threatening injury, Great Britain’s Chris Froome (Israel-PremierTech) will make an impressive comeback at the 2023 Tour de France. The former champion will showcase his resilience and determination, surprising everyone with his exceptional performance.”
We love this prediction as it’s bold but not unreasonable. Froome’s story is a testament to just how fragile a career can be. He looked poised to challenge for a record-tying fifth Tour de France victory with INEOS in 2019, but crashed while pre-riding a time trial at the 2019 Critérium du Dauphiné.
He was 34 at the time, already at the tail-end of his peak years as a grand tour rider, and the crash nearly ended his career. He’s now in his third season with Israel-PremierTech and has enjoyed a relatively trouble-free season (so far). Assuming he makes the team (we think he will), we’d love to see the 38-year-old win one more stage at the Tour, then close the curtain on his storied career.
4. “Breakaway specialists will dominate the mountain stages. The mountain stages of the 2023 Tour de France will witness a surge of breakaway specialists. These talented climbers will take advantage of strategic opportunities, leaving the peloton in awe as they conquer challenging ascents and descend with extraordinary skill.”
The chatbot is onto something here, especially given current racing tactics. Grand tour contenders just don’t seem all that concerned with winning stages anymore–especially if letting a breakaway go up the road means the race behind it is easier to control. At the recently-completed Giro d’Italia, for example, all but one of the race’s 7 mountain stages went to a rider from the breakaway.
Now don’t get us wrong: Vingegaard and Pogačar are exceptions in that they enjoy winning stages while fighting for the yellow jersey, but if the race is close, don’t expect them to risk too much in order to do it.
5. “A lesser-known team will defy expectations and clinch victory in the team time trial. This unexpected triumph will showcase the importance of teamwork and demonstrate that cycling is not just about individual performances.”
Not sure what the chatbot is thinking here: there’s no team time trial in this year’s Tour de France. (Let this be a lesson to you kids, do your own homework!)
6. “A talented rider will deliver an extraordinary performance during the individual time trial, shattering the existing record for the fastest time. Their exceptional speed and precision will leave spectators in awe and cement their status as a time trial specialist.”
Not gonna happen this year, chatbot! There’s only one individual time trial in this year’s Tour, and it’s hilly, which means the current record of 55.446 km/h (34.5 mph) set by Australia’s Rohan Dennis on Stage 1 of the 2015 Tour de France, is safe.
But Stage 16’s 22.4km individual time trial is the only ITT in this year’s Tour, and it ends with an ascent of the Category 2 Côte de Domancy, where France’s Bernard Hinault dropped his competitors to win the world championship in 1980. So while we won’t see any records broken, we will see fireworks that could shape the outcome of the race overall.
7. “Young talents will steal the limelight. The 2023 Tour de France will witness the rise of promising young talents. These rising stars will showcase their potential, challenging the established veterans and leaving a lasting impression on the cycling world.”
Once upon a time, riders didn’t become grand tour contenders until their mid- to late-20s. Now they burst out of the gates and win tours while barely old enough to drink (in the USA, at least). Case in point: the average age of the last four Tour de France champions is just 22.5.
But while this is less of a prediction and more of a trend, there is someone making his Tour de France debut this year that we could see leaving a lasting impression: Eritrea’s Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty). A talented sprinter who last year won Ghent-Wevelgem and a stage at the Giro, the 23-year-old is a good bet to win a stage or two and challenge for the green jersey.
8. “The 2023 Tour de France will prioritize sustainability and environmental responsibility. The race organizers will implement innovative measures to reduce waste, promote recycling, and minimize the event's carbon footprint, setting an example for future sporting events.”
This one’s a given as the Tour’s organizers have been more concerned with sustainability in recent years, and their last environmental audit (conducted in 2021) showed a 40% reduction in emissions overall.
The hope is that this year’s audit indicates that the race is even closer to achieving its goal of a 50% reduction in emissions by 2025, which should be helped by the fact this year’s route is relatively light when it comes to long pre- and post-stage transfers. We’re still not sure if we can consider the Tour an example for other sporting events (there’s still a long way to go before the race will be known for its sustainability), but progress is being made.
9. “Unconventional race strategies will lead to unpredictable outcomes: In a bid to gain an edge over their rivals, teams will adopt unconventional race strategies that defy traditional norms. These innovative approaches will lead to unpredictable outcomes, keeping fans on the edge of their seats throughout the race.”
With two clear favorites in Vingegaard and Pogačar, it’s likely that the only tactical battle to make any difference will take place between these two riders and their teams. But this year’s route is definitely unconventional, with two hard days in the Basque Country to open the race followed a few days later by a mid-week trip through the Pyrenees.
This could lead to some early gaps forming, especially if someone like Vingegaard–who already seems to be approaching top form–chooses to test Pogačar–who’s still recovering from a crash in late-April and is behind in his preparation–right away. GC contenders generally don’t like to take the yellow jersey too soon at risk of over-extending themselves and their teammates in having to defend it for three weeks.
But Vingegaard could gamble by trying to get the better of Pogačar before the Slovenian has a chance to race himself into shape. While this might not lead to an unpredictable outcome–we don’t see anyone other than Vingegaard or Pogačar winning the Tour–it would be an unconventional way for them to do so.
So who will win? Well, we asked the chatbot and here’s what it said:
10. “As an AI language model, I do not have real-time information or the ability to predict future events such as the winner of the 2023 Tour de France. The outcome of sporting events depends on various factors, including the performance and form of the athletes, race strategies, and unforeseen circumstances. It's best to follow the event and its coverage to find out who will win the Tour de France in 2023.”
This is perhaps the chatbot’s most accurate response yet. So be sure to stay with Bicycling.com throughout the 2023 Tour de France (and Tour de France Femmes) for results, analysis, and non-AI-based insight.
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