2024 Tony Awards slugfest: ‘Illinoise’ throws musical predictions into disarray [WATCH]

Sam Eckmann
·5 min read
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I thought I was safe to boldly pronounce my initial 2024 Tony Awards predictions, but then Sufjan Stevens appeared to stomp all over them. As David Buchanan and I convened to discuss where we thought the musical nominations were headed this season, news broke that Off-Broadway’s dreamy dance show “Illinoise” will transfer to the St. James Theatre just in time to compete at this year’s ceremony. The show, based on Stevens’ seminal album, has thrown our Tony predictions into disarray. Watch our full video slugfest above.

“Illinoise” marks the 15th new musical of the 2023-2024 season. That’s more new tuners than any Broadway season since 1975-1976. Theatergoers this year are indeed spoiled with a glut of new shows, but predicting the coveted Best Musical category has become a titanic task.

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SEE 2024 Tony Awards nominations predictions: Big tallies for musicals ‘Lempicka,’ ‘The Notebook,’ ‘Cabaret’ …

David believes “Illinoise” will be a “strong contender” for many categories, including the Best Musical. We both have certainly carved out space at the top of the Choreography race for Tony winner Justin Peck (“Carousel”). I’m predicting it for Best Musical too, but hesitant to vault the critical darling up to first place so quickly. Voters are always more inclined to reward tuners with an original score. Plus “Illinoise” has a strictly limited run, concluding its Broadway residency on August 11. Voters might find more value in backing one of the musicals opening in a crowded Spring season, in hopes of boosting their box office.

With that in mind, David and I both agree on three other Spring shows, at least for now. “Suffs” features a score from Shaina Taub and details the women’s suffragist movement. That Hillary Clinton and Malala Yousafzai have signed on as producers may help attract serious attention. “Lempicka” is a portrait of Art Deco painter Tamara de Lempicka. It marks the highly anticipated return of Eden Espinosa to Broadway after an 18 year absence, which has made her the current frontrunner for Lead Actress in a Musical. “The Notebook” should also register thanks to a beautiful storytelling device which tugs at the heartstrings. It was smeared by a few high profile critics, but I argue that like the novel and film adaptation before it, the emotional pull of this story makes it “critic proof.”

Three other literary adaptations with spring debuts are also in the hunt: “The Great Gatsby,” “The Outsiders,” and “Water for Elephants.” David is also keen on “Hell’s Kitchen,” which uses a catalog of songs from Alicia Keys to tell a story inspired by her upbringing in New York. There are also two critical darlings which sadly faced premature closings: David Byrne’s immersive disco party “Here Lies Love” and Adam Guettel’s sophisticated take on “Days of Wine and Roses.” “I don’t think I have room for two shows that will be closed,” laments David as he pours over his Best Musical lineup. David and I are betting on “Here Lies Love” for now, but “Wine and Roses” stars Kelli O’Hara and Brain d’Arcy James are sure to earn nominations regardless for their career-best performances.

SEE Can ‘Merrily We Roll Along’ claim a trio of acting wins at the 2024 Tony Awards?

Speaking of performances, both David and I predict that Jonathan Groff is “having his moment” and out front for Lead Actor in a Musical for “Merrily We Roll Along.” In fact, we predict a great showing for that Stephen Sondheim revival, Lindsay Mendez and Daniel Radcliffe also leading the pack for the two featured acting races. The stars of the latest revival of “Cabaret” will surely provide tough competition, with Gayle Rankin, Eddie Redmayne, Bebe Neuwirth, and Steven Skybell all playing beloved characters which have won Tonys before.

Still, we caution readers to pay close attention to some performers who might be less famous than the “Merrily” trio, but are poised for their breakout moment at the Tonys. This includes Maryann Plunkett and Dorian Harewood (“The Notebook”), Maleah Joi Moon and Kecia Lewis (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Ali Louis Bourzgui (“The Who’s Tommy”), Hugh Coles (“Back to the Future: The Musical”), Liam Pearce (“How to Dance in Ohio”), Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer (“Spamalot”) and Paul Alexander Nolan (“Water for Elephants”).

“It’s overwhelming,” admits David, which sums up the task of making predictions this year quite accurately. So be sure to watch the video discussion to hear our complete thoughts on the state of the race before jumping over to the prediction center.

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