What can we expect from the 2022 holiday season?

Maybe it's because football is back, or because I've been anxiously awaiting the season finale of "The Bachelorette," but I'm starting to think of holiday shopping as a game.

Whatever these times might be, they are not the Dickensian days of "A Christmas Carol." We are not a society of Bob Cratchits saving up every penny for our proverbial Christmas geese, as one business expert told me.

These days, most people, regardless of their socioeconomic status, seem to at least have a smart phone. During the pandemic, many discovered that they had too much stuff and opted to purge their homes of useless clutter. We're clearly not giving out of necessity anymore. So what is gift giving at Christmas all about, anyway?

More retail news: Why did Costco pick North Port?

New stores: Clive Daniel Home opens in Sarasota at Fruitville Commons

I think it's a game.

You have a few of the same elements present in football or "The Bachelor" (I believe "The Bachelor," with its raucous impractical group dates, suspiciously timely professions of love and fixation on "the right reasons," to be a game).

One example is time. Football players and coaches use the clock to their advantage, strategically taking timeouts. In the case of Christmas shopping, the clock is already ticking to Dec. 25 and the pressure is on.

Another is creativity. "Bachelor" contestants often have to recite a poem, perform a standup comedy set or even sing or dance to advance in the competition. For Christmas shopping, I need to think of something my loved ones will like that they probably wouldn't get for themselves. This requires a lot of creative thinking, internet research and possibly some arts and crafts skills.

I'm also required to think quickly and to minimize risk to successfully acquire my prizes, which in the case of Christmas shopping are the gifts I'll send to my loved ones. Those gifts are the Christmas equivalent of the NFL's Vince Lombardi Trophy or of a $100,000 Neil Lane engagement ring on a "Bachelor" show.

But of course, like any contestant on a reality television program, at the end of the day I'm in it for the right reasons. I want my family and friends to know I'm thinking of them, which is the biggest part of why I want to be smart about my holiday shopping.

Turns out I am not the only one feeling the pressure of the ticking clock. The studies that have been released so far about the upcoming holiday shopping season indicate that it will begin earlier. In fact, half of consumers who said they plan to holiday shop said they'll start by Halloween, according to a forecast from Bankrate.

Then there's the "I" word -- inflation. We see it everywhere, from the gas pump to the grocery store to restaurants, where some are adding extra fees to offset their own costs.

Unsurprisingly, inflation is expected to impact consumer behavior this holiday season. Most consumers surveyed by Bankrate that said increased prices for consumer goods will impact their holiday spending said they're looking for ways to save money.

Retail companies are taking the hint. Starting next month, Target is launching a partnership with the iconic toy retailer FAO Schwarz, which includes 120 items from all toy categories ranging from $9.99-$149.99 and 50 toys for less than $20. About half of the toys on Walmart's 2022 Top Toy List for the holidays are under $50 and many are under $25.

Still, several major annual spending forecasts expect holiday sales to be up compared to last year.

Mastercard's annual SpendingPulse holiday forecast projected a 7.1% increase in U.S. retail sales for this holiday season. Those numbers are not adjusted for inflation, however, so take that for what it is. Deloitte's annual survey found that sales should increase 4-6% this holiday season for a total of $1.45-$1.47 trillion.

Sales for the extended holiday season of Oct. 11-Dec. 24 are expected to grow by 7.3% over last year and by 19.4% over 2019, according to Mastercard. E-commerce sales will be up 4.2% compared to last year, and 69.2% compared to 2019, the company said.

People will be on the hunt for a bargain. More than three-fourths of holiday shoppers -- 84%, to be exact -- said they're taking steps to reduce their purchase costs, including taking advantage of discounts, coupons and sales, buying less than in the past, shopping earlier and going for cheaper brands.

Beware of those "sales," though, Carol Osborne, director of the Zimmerman Advertising Program at the University of South Florida's Muma College of Business, said. What looks like a deal in November might actually have been sticker price in July or even September.

"I started tracking prices and picked a couple of things like a couple of TVs -- you have to really have it down to the model -- and just kind of watched how they fluctuate. You could see where prices are ticking up this time of year, and it wasn't really a deal," Osborne said. "The July price went up by September and then in October it was 20% off everything -- well yeah, it's because you raised all the prices. People don't know any better."

But even as we hunt for deals, competing for the best prices on bread makers, Beats by Dre speakers and floral Crate & Barrel teapots, let's not forget what makes the holidays special -- togetherness.

With the bleak backdrop of unimaginably tragic world events, like the war in Ukraine, Osborne said she thinks people will focus more on what matters. This is something that  I noticed in 2020 with the pandemic: People seemed to be drawn to spiritual gifts, inspirational signs and messages of hope.

Gift-giving has also gotten more practical since COVID, Osborne said. It's better to get a camera for your niece who loves photography or a new pan for an aunt who loves cooking, rather than just getting either of them a vase that will collect dust. Osborne said a niece sent her sister a pizza pie from a place they loved growing up. Sure, it goes away quickly, but it means something.

So I guess maybe that's a less cynical take than the one I started out with. And let's face it, when you win the Super Bowl or "The Bachelorette," it's so much better if you have someone to share it with (in the case of the "Bachelorette," you literally do, in the form of your brand new fiancé, whom you will inevitably break up with in less than six months).

That being said, I will be getting my dad a much better gift than my brother or my sister could ever dream of getting him. Bah humbug!

Laura Finaldi, the Herald-Tribune’s retail and tourism reporter, can be reached at 941-361-4951 or lfinaldi@heraldtribune.com. Follow her on Twitter and Instagram @lauraefinaldi. Join her Sarasota-Manatee Retail News page on Facebook at facebook.com/groups/sarasotamanateeretail/.  

Support local journalism with a digital subscription to the Herald Tribune.

This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Sarasota holiday shopping 2022: What to expect