Atlantic hurricane season off to slow start but above-normal number of storms still expected

·4 min read

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season may have started slow — there have only been three named storms so far — but forecasters warned activity is still expected to be above normal.

The National Hurricane Center currently is watching three tropical waves, including one in the Caribbean. Another tropical wave is expected to move off Africa's coast later today.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued an updated forecast for the season Thursday, revising its prediction slightly downward, with six to 10 hurricanes expected.

An average Atlantic season spawns seven hurricanes and peaks in August, September and October.

Your guide to preparing for the 2022 hurricane season in Florida

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Excessive rainfall forecast

Overall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said 14 to 20 named storms will develop in the Atlantic basin, which includes storms in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. In May, the organization predicted 21 named storms.

The numbers include tropical storms, which have wind speeds of 39 mph or higher. A hurricane develops when sustained winds reach 74 mph.

Revised seasonal forecast: Atlantic hurricane season off to slow start. But top forecasters still expect above-normal activity

WeatherTiger: Hurricane season has been quiet so far. Don't let that fool you

Tropical Storm Colin was the last named storm in the Atlantic basin. It developed off South Carolina over the Fourth of July weekend. The next named storm will be Danielle.

When is hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

Hurricane season's ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA
Hurricane season's ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA

Although the season has gotten off to a quiet start, the peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

Colorado State University hurricane activity forecast for Aug. 4-17

Colorado State University predicted normal or 50% chance for hurricane activity over the next two weeks and a below-normal or 40% chance over the same period.

Historically, the primary threat in early August comes from storms that form in the tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles, said Philip Klotzbach, meteorologist with Colorado State University.

Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 8 a.m. Aug. 5:  

What's out there and where are they?

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three tropical waves. It's also watching a system that is expected to become a new tropical wave moving off the African coast later today.

Tropical conditions Aug. 5, 2022.
Tropical conditions Aug. 5, 2022.

Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave is located in the eastern Atlantic southwest of Cape Verde. It's moving quickly to the west at 23 mph.

Tropical wave 2: Another tropical wave in the Central Atlantic is located east of Grenada. It's moving to the west at 23 mph.

Tropical wave 3: A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea is located west of Grenada. It's moving to the west at 23 mph.

Who is likely to be impacted?

It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from the tropical waves.

Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared during what's expected to be an active hurricane season.

Weather watches and warnings issued for your area

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The next five days

See the National Hurricane Center's five-day graphical tropical weather outlook below.

Excessive rainfall forecast

What's out there?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.

What's next?

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This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: NHC watching 3 tropical waves, 1 in Caribbean. Above-normal activity expected