'Today's' Ticking Clock: Who Is Matt Lauer's Heir Apparent?
This story first appeared in the Nov. 15 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine.
Less than two years after a disastrous anchor transition on NBC's Today, the clock is counting down to the next one. And the debate over who might replace Matt Lauer, said to earn nearly $25 million annually on a deal that extends to early 2015, is as delicate as it will be public. The botched June 2012 changeover from Ann Curry to Savannah Guthrie might have torpedoed NBC News' reputation as the outlet of the deftly executed handoff, but it also has made NBCUniversal executives including CEO Steve Burke and News Group chairman Patricia Fili-Krushel determined to make the next one smooth and painless. "We hope that he wants to last out at least this contract on the Today show," Fili-Krushel recently told THR, adding that she'd "keep Matt Lauer as long as he wants to stay."
But she also admitted the focus over the next two years is finding his heir apparent and that "expanding the family is the easiest way" to groom a successor but "not the only way."
Willie Geist, 38, joined Today more than a year ago as co-host of the 9 a.m. hour with Natalie Morales and Al Roker. Geist is well-liked at NBC News and MSNBC, where he continues to appear on the first half of Morning Joe. He and Meet the Press host David Gregory, who has filled in on Today, are the obvious in-house candidates to succeed Lauer, should he leave. And some suggest Gregory, 43, is better suited to Today than Meet the Press, which has endured ratings woes, falling behind ABC's This Week during the third quarter. CNBC's Carl Quintanilla also is said to be a contender.
Data provided to THR by Q Scores, which measures audience sentiment toward stars, reveals that Geist and Gregory have higher positive ratings than Lauer; among adult women -- the key demographic against which morning TV ads are sold -- Gregory's positive Q Score stands at 18, compared with Geist's 14. Lauer this year dropped to a positive Q Score of 7, compared with 15 in 2012.
Burke is said to have made Today a top priority. On Oct. 31, THR.com reported that the show's longtime entertainment booker, Melissa Lonner, will leave by year's end. And NBC News executives are looking at other possible changes. Today had expressed interest in Anderson Cooper for a role on the show. But Cooper, 46, is negotiating a new deal with CNN and will continue to anchor pieces for 60 Minutes, whose executives want him to do more. Ryan Seacrest, 38, the subject of much speculation last year, and Carson Daly, 40, who in September was appointed Today's digital host and social media correspondent, are considered long shots for an anchor position. (Among Lauer's morning-news colleagues, Daly is the most polarizing and has "the weakest emotional connection" to female viewers, notes Q Scores executive vp Henry Schafer.)
For NBC News, the stakes could not be higher. In 2012, Today generated $515 million in ad revenue for the 7 a.m. to 9 a.m. hours, according to Kantar Media, the biggest moneymaker in the NBC News portfolio. But Good Morning America's ratings -- in September, GMA marked a full season as the No. 1 morning program among total viewers and the 25-to-54 demo -- spurred a shift in upfront dollars from Today to GMA, say buyers.
ABC's ad-sales representatives naturally touted their show's top-rated status during upfront negotiations in the spring, while NBC reps stressed that their show was "stabilizing" after months of turmoil. "When the ratings story isn't good, they'll find other things to talk about," notes one buyer. "They might acknowledge it, but they'll never focus on the negative. They'll just change the conversation."
But with the third hour of Today, NBC can achieve better pricing -- the main reason Today continues to command a bigger share of revenue. (Kantar Media estimates that GMA took in $318 million in 2012.)