The Most (and Least) Likely Eligible Genre Films to Be Nominated for Best Picture

Germain Lussier

January 8, 2024 at 5:15 PM·5 min read

All four of these films are eligible for the Best Picture Oscar. But not all realistically have a shot.

Awards season is in full swing all across the world, but for most movie fans, one award matters more than all the others: the Oscar. The Acadamy Awards are voted on by the people who work on them, from actors and directors to costume designers and set builders. It’s widely considered to be the most prestigious and enduring award, and the one every film is after.

Before a winner can be crowned, the Academy must determine which films released in the previous year are eligible for awards and which are not. For 2024, 265 feature films released in 2023 are eligible for the Academy Award for Best Picture; of those 265, around 65 of them are genre films—fantasy, sci-fi, horror, etc.

Without watching this one, you probably wouldn’t know it’s a genre film. But it is. And while saying that is kind of a spoiler, the way it deals with it is why it has an excellent chance of a Best Picture nomination.

Unlikely: Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

In a dream world, James Wan’s superhero sequel was good enough for a nomination. In reality, it’ll be lucky to get special effects nominations.

Likely: Asteroid City

Wes Anderson’s quirky alien story is certainly a long shot at a Best Picture nomination—but it at least did have some awards buzz, unlike, say, the next film in this list.

Unlikely: The Exorcist: Believer

The original Exorcist was the first horror movie to ever be nominated for Best Picture, so the potential was (at least hypothetically) there for this sequel. Too bad it’s so, so terrible.

Likely: Barbie

Barbie is probably the only lock on this list in terms of actually getting a Best Picture nomination. And for good reason.

Unlikely: Fast X

If Fast Five or Furious 7 didn’t get any Oscar love, this far-inferior sequel sure as hell won’t. Funny to imagine a world where a Fast movie did get some love though.

Likely: Beau Is Afraid

Ari Aster’s dreamscape of a film probably won’t get any major Oscar nominations, but it at least has the pedigree to be in the conversation.

Unlikely: Five Nights at Freddy’s

While fans of this box office smash would certainly love to see the film get some attention from the Academy, we’re sorry to say that will not be happening.

Likely: The Boy and the Heron

Hayao Miyazaki’s latest is all but assured to get at least some nominations from the Academy. But will one of those be for Best Picture? It’s not out of the realm of possibility.

Unlikely: The Flash

The same can’t be said for The Flash, which will, unsurprisingly, not hear its name called in any aspect on Oscar night. Even for the Oscar Fan Favorite.

Likely: Dream Scenario

The team behind Dream Scenario probably thought the film had a shot at awards at one point, and while that seems less likely now, the fact it did get a Golden Globe nomination for star Nicolas Cage, moves it firmly to the “Likely” side, albeit it much less than others.

Unlikely: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Again, the dream for this movie was to get something with Oscar potential. And while the end product is honestly pretty good, it’s not good enough.

Likely: Godzilla Minus One

io9's pick for Best Film of the Year probably won’t get any Oscar attention because of the stigma it has as a monster movie. But, as anyone who has seen it will tell you, this particular monster movie is better than most.

Unlikely: Meg 2: The Trench

Meg 2, on the other hand, is a monster movie worse than most. Well, maybe not “most.” But it’s certainly worse than its very fun predecessor.

Likely: Poor Things

If Barbie is the only genre lock for a Best Picture nomination here, Poor Things comes in a close second, especially after besting Barbie at the Golden Globes.

Unlikely: Rebel Moon - Part One: A Child of Fire

LOL. Come on.

Likely: Robot Dreams

Probably not for Best Picture but Robot Dreams is widely considered one of the best animated films of the year, so we’d imagine it at least gets that nomination.

Unlikely: Shazam! Fury of the Gods

While we didn’t hate this movie, we did mostly forget it existed—so seeing it on the eligible list was rather amusing.

Likely: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

No doubt guaranteed a Best Animated Film nomination, Across the Spider-Verse is certainly good enough to get a Best Picture nomination. But will enough voters agree? We hope so.

Unlikely: Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

No real shade against this movie, which is much better than it could’ve been, but we do not live in a world where a Transformers movie of any quality gets an Oscar nomination. Though we do want to live in that world.

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