How Trump Is Exploiting Clinton's Race Problem
Hillary Clinton has a race problem and Trump exploited it during Monday night's debate. It was easy to miss his strategy if you were cheering her confident performance from a blue state watch party or following a triumphant Democratic twitter feed posting baffled Trump gifs. This was the most watched debate in history and the consensus is that Clinton slayed. It was a great night on stage, which ought to be followed by a good week in the polls. Well done, Madame Secretary.
Hillary Clinton still has a race problem. Like many of the challenges facing her candidacy, it is only marginally of her own making, but it is a problem nonetheless.
Any Democrat running for President in the modern era understands the power of black voters. Seeking office at the end of the Obama era, Hillary Clinton certainly understands that African American voters are crucial to her electoral success. And the overwhelming majority of African Americans who vote on November 8 will cast their ballots for Clinton. In a poll released in early September by ABC News and the Washington Post, 93 percent of black voters expressed support for Secretary Clinton. She is the consensus choice of black voters.
But to win the presidency Hillary Clinton not only needs the overwhelming support of black voters, she also needs a significant―perhaps historic―proportion of black Americans to become voters on November 8. Here's why: The president is chosen by votes in the electoral college and 270 is the magical number. As of debate night, polls show Trump and Clinton locked in an electoral college dead heat. The states that will make the difference in 2016 include Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and possibly Pennsylvania and Virginia. These are swing states. But the states don't really swing. Preferences don't really change from election to election. The only thing that changes is the composition of the electorate; who turns out to vote.
Clinton's race problem is a turnout problem.
The election and reelection of president Obama generated historic African American voter turnout. In the past two presidential elections, African American voters have been the cornerstone of the Democratic party coalition. Indeed, their relative absence in both the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections led to massive losses for Democratic candidates, and this is an indication of what can happen if black voters are not motivated to show up to the polls in 2016. According to a Cook Political Report, in 2012, "African-American voters accounted for Obama's entire margin of victory in seven states: Florida, Maryland, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Without these states' 112 electoral votes, Obama would have lost decisively." Clinton's race problem is a turnout problem.
This is where Trump deploys his strategy. He does not counter her attacks. He does not seek to attract black voters. He simply seeks to close the distance between himself and Clinton. Instead of trying to climb out of the basket of deplorables, Trump reaches over and pulls her in with him.
Here are some of his responses from Monday night:
You were the one that brought up the words super-predator about young black youth. … I think you've apologized for it. But I think it was a terrible thing to say.
And when it comes to stop-and-frisk, you know, you're talking about taking guns away. Well, I'm talking about taking guns away from gangs and people that use them. And I don't think―I really don't think you disagree with me on this, if you want to know the truth.
The African American community has been let down by our politicians. They talk good around election time, like right now, and after the election, they said, see ya later, I'll see you in four years.
In your debates against Barack Obama, you treated him with terrible disrespect. And I watched the way you talk now about how lovely everything is and how wonderful you are. It doesn't work that way. You were after him, you were trying to-you even sent out or your campaign sent out pictures of him in a certain garb, very famous pictures. I don't think you can deny that...So when you tried to act holier than thou, it really doesn't work. It really doesn't.
There is plenty of Trump bluster here, but there is just enough truth to sting. The racial tactics of the 2008 Democratic primary have not been entirely forgotten by African American voters. This summer's #GirlIGuessImWithHer viral hashtag captured black voter ambivalence towards Clinton's candidacy. When Trump speaks of hellish inner city neighborhoods that need his special brand of law and order, he is tapping into an argument trumpeted for nearly two decades by former President Clinton, who claimed to have brought down crime by putting 100,000 officers on city streets.
It is a frustrating strategy for the the Clinton campaign. It is arguably disingenuous. But it just might work, because it is based in a solid understanding of real voter behavior. When voters perceive little difference between candidates, they are less likely to turn out to vote. It is highly unlikely that Trump will win a substantial portion of African American voters, but he need not win those votes to inflict real harm on Clinton's campaign. All he has to do is create a discouraging and distressing landscape devoid of meaningful electoral choices.
All he has to do is create a discouraging and distressing landscape devoid of meaningful electoral choices.
This is not an effort to craft a great American vision articulated in lasting, graceful rhetoric, but it is a smart political strategy. Take aim at the cornerstone of your opponent's base. Tell that base your opponent is just as bad as you are and there is no real point in making a choice. Convince enough of those voters to stay home on election day in order to win in key states. In a razor thin contest, this may be enough.
To win, Clinton will have to make it clear that the difference between them is very real. She has two more debates to make that case.
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