Which college football programs develop the most 3-star recruits into top NFL draft picks?
No matter how much some college football coaches try to tell you otherwise at their yearly national signing day news conferences, recruiting rankings matter.
The top of the 2020 NFL draft was yet another set of data showing that players ranked as four- and five-star recruits coming out of high school are more likely to end up reaching the NFL.
Using the recruiting rankings from Rivals.com for reference, 21 of the 32 players chosen in Thursday night’s first round were rated as at least four-star recruits. Of those 21, seven were five-star recruits. When you consider that there are typically somewhere in the range of 30-35 five-star prospects, 300 or so four-star prospects, and hundreds of other recruits with two- and three-star ratings in a given recruiting class, that’s a pretty good hit rate.
Those high-ranking draftees typically represent the top performing programs in college football. This year, LSU, Alabama and Ohio State combined for 12 of the 32 first-rounders. But not every school can recruit at that level and are forced to search for diamonds in the rough to help them win games and develop into draft prospects.
That got us wondering which programs develop the most low-level recruits — unranked, two-star and three-star prospects — into players picked in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. So we went through each FBS school’s draft picks from the past 10 years (2020 draft included) and looked up those draftees’ Rivals recruiting rankings.
Here’s what we found:
The 10 programs that developed the most three-star (or lower) recruits into Round 1-3 picks in the last 10 years are Ohio State (14), Wisconsin (13), Boise State (12), LSU (12), Stanford (12), Louisville (11), Washington (11), Mississippi State (10), TCU (10) and Utah (10).
Many of the programs that end up atop recruiting rankings are still finding high-upside three-star recruits as well, and no program is doing that better than Ohio State.
OSU has had 43 players go in the top three rounds of the draft over the last 10 years, and 14 of them were rated at three stars or below — more than any other program. Six of those players went in the first round.
LSU isn’t far behind. Of the 45 Tigers picked in the top three rounds since 2011, 12 were ranked at three stars or below. That figure includes three 2020 first-rounders: Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
By comparison, Alabama has had 54 players drafted in those rounds, with just six rated at three stars or below. Notre Dame (3/24), USC (2/23), Georgia (3/22) and Oklahoma (4/21) all had a similarly low percentage. That, of course, is also a reflection of how well those programs recruit.
It could be argued that no program is doing more with less talent than Wisconsin. In the Rivals.com era (dating back to 2002), Wisconsin’s average team recruiting rank is 41.7. Yet the Badgers are routinely developing top NFL draft choices. Over the last 10 years, 18 Badgers have gone in the top three rounds. Thirteen of those players were ranked at three stars or lower and six went in the first round.
Not only did Boise State have the highest number of draftees among Group of Five programs, it tied Stanford and LSU for third-most three-star-to-NFL stories in all of FBS. The Broncos have had nine three-stars, two two-stars and one unranked player go in the first three rounds. The unranked player was walk-on linebacker Leighton Vander Esch, a first-round selection of the Dallas Cowboys in 2018.
The Pac-12 was well-represented in this study with Stanford, Washington and Utah all producing NFL players at a high rate. Of that group, Utah had the highest hit rate on three-star talent, with 10 of its 13 top picks earning three-star rankings in high school. For Stanford, it was 12 of 20 while 11 of Washington’s 19 picks were three-star or lower.
Louisville leads the way out of the ACC with 11 of its 14 high-round picks ranking as three-star recruits. That includes five first-rounders.
TCU has also developed its talent well with 10 of its 11 Round 1-3 picks coming in as three- or two-star recruits. Four of those 10 ended up as first-rounders in the NFL.
Temple has also identified some real diamonds in the rough and got them to the NFL. Of the program’s seven top-three round picks, only one (Matt Hennessy) was a three-star recruit. The others were either rated two stars or were walk-ons who were unranked. Also of note in the AAC, Connecticut has produced a surprisingly high amount of top draft choices (seven) relative to the program’s lack of on-field success. Temple and UConn were matched at seven by UCF, a program with a much more fertile recruiting base.
Below is a look at how every FBS team has fared with lower-level recruits over the past 10 years. The list is sorted by conference in alphabetical order. A more detailed look including all the players is available at the bottom of this post.
Note: Drafts from 2011-20, Rounds 1, 2 and 3 only
American Athletic Conference
Cincinnati
Total draft choices: 5
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 2
2-star: 3
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Connecticut
Total: 7
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 2
2-star: 5
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Byron Jones
East Carolina
Total: 1
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 1
Round 1: None
Houston
Total: 5
4/5 star: 1
3-star: 4
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: D.J. Hayden, William Jackson
Memphis
Total: 5
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 2
2-star: 2
Unranked: 1
Round 1: Dontari Poe, Paxton Lynch
SMU
Total: 3
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 2
2-star: 0
Unranked: 1
Round 1: None
South Florida
Total: 3
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 3
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Temple
Total: 7
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 1
2-star: 4
Unranked: 2
Round 1: Muhammad Wilkerson, Haason Reddick
UCF
Total: 9
4/5 star: 2
3-star: 4
2-star: 3
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Blake Bortles, Breshad Perriman
None: Navy, Tulane, Tulsa
ACC
Boston College
Total: 10
4/5 star: 2
3-star: 7
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Anthony Castonzo, Luke Kuechly, Chris Lindstrom
Clemson
Total: 27
4/5 star: 20
3-star: 5
2-star: 2
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Vic Beasley, Isaiah Simmons
Duke
Total: 2
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 1
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Laken Tomlinson, Daniel Jones
Florida State
Total: 25
4/5 star: 17
3-star: 8
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Christian Ponder, Bjoern Werner, Xavier Rhodes, Cameron Erving
Georgia Tech
Total: 3
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 2
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Louisville
Total: 14
4/5 star: 3
3-star: 11
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Calvin Pryor, Marcus Smith, DeVante Parker, Sheldon Rankins, Jaire Alexander
Miami
Total: 16
4/5 star: 11
3-star: 5
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Phillip Dorsett, David Njoku
NC State
Total: 12
4/5 star: 5
3-star: 4
2-star: 3
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Bradley Chubb, Garrett Bradbury
North Carolina
Total: 15
4/5 star: 7
3-star: 8
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Jonathan Cooper, Sylvester Williams, Eric Ebron, Mitchell Trubisky
Pittsburgh
Total: 6
4/5 star: 2
3-star: 4
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Aaron Donald
Syracuse
Total: 3
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 2
Unranked: 1
Round 1: Chandler Jones, Justin Pugh
Virginia
Total: 4
4/5 star: 2
3-star: 1
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Virginia Tech
Total: 8
4/5 star: 5
3-star: 3
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Kyle Fuller, Terrell Edmunds
Wake Forest
Total: 2
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 2
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Kevin Johnson
Big 12
Baylor
Total: 9
4/5 star: 5
3-star: 2
2-star: 2
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Kendall Wright
Iowa State
Total: 2
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 1
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Kansas State
Total: 6
4/5 star: 2
3-star: 4
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Oklahoma
Total: 21
4/5 star: 17
3-star: 3
2-star: 0
Unranked: 1
Round 1: Lane Johnson, Baker Mayfield
Oklahoma State
Total: 6
4/5 star: 2
3-star: 3
2-star: 0
Unranked: 1
Round 1: Justin Blackmon, Brandon Weeden
Note: Weeden graduated high school in 2001, before the Rivals.com era. He then played minor league baseball before enrolling at OSU in 2007. He was not assigned a ranking.
TCU
Total: 11
4/5 star: 1
3-star: 8
2-star: 2
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Jason Verrett, Josh Doctson, L.J. Collier, Jeff Gladney
Texas
Total: 11
4/5 star: 9
3-star: 1
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Texas Tech
Total: 4
4/5 star: 1
3-star: 3
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Patrick Mahomes, Jordyn Brooks
West Virginia
Total: 12
4/5 star: 6
3-star: 4
2-star: 2
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Kevin White, Karl Joseph
None: Kansas
Big Ten
Illinois
Total: 10
4/5 star: 2
3-star: 7
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Whitney Mercilus, A.J. Jenkins
Indiana
Total: 4
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 4
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Iowa
Total: 14
4/5 star: 5
3-star: 7
2-star: 2
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Riley Reiff, Brandon Scherff, T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant
Maryland
Total: 6
4/5 star: 2
3-star: 4
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Darnell Savage
Michigan
Total: 20
4/5 star: 15
3-star: 4
2-star: 0
Unranked: 1
Round 1: None
Michigan State
Total: 8
4/5 star: 2
3-star: 2
2-star: 3
Unranked: 1
Round 1: Darqueze Dennard, Trae Waynes, Jack Conklin
Minnesota
Total: 3
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 2
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Nebraska
Total: 8
4/5 star: 2
3-star: 4
2-star: 0
Unranked: 2
Round 1: Prince Amukamara
Ohio State
Total: 43
4/5 star: 29
3-star: 13
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Bradley Roby, Darron Lee, Malik Hooker, Gareon Conley, Denzel Ward, Damon Arnette
Penn State
Total: 15
4/5 star: 11
3-star: 2
2-star: 1
Unranked: 1
Round 1: None
Purdue
Total: 2
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 2
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Ryan Kerrigan
Rutgers
Total: 6
4/5 star: 2
3-star: 3
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Wisconsin
Total: 18
4/5 star: 5
3-star: 9
2-star: 3
Unranked: 1
Round 1: J.J. Watt, Gabe Carimi, Kevin Zeitler, Travis Frederick, T.J. Watt, Ryan Ramczyk
None: Northwestern
Conference USA
Charlotte
Total: 2
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 1
2-star: 0
Unranked: 1
Round 1: None
Florida Atlantic
Total: 4
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 1
2-star: 3
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Florida International
Total: 3
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 3
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Louisiana Tech
Total: 3
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 1
2-star: 2
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Vernon Butler
Marshall
Total: 2
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 2
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Middle Tennessee
Total: 1
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Old Dominion
Total: 1
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Rice
Total: 2
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 1
Unranked: 1
Round 1: None
Southern Miss
Total: 4
4/5 star: 2
3-star: 2
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
UTEP
Total: 1
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 0
Unranked: 1
Round 1: None
UTSA
Total: 1
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Marcus Davenport
Western Kentucky
Total: 2
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 2
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
None: North Texas, UAB
Independent
BYU
Total: 5
4/5 star: 3
3-star: 1
2-star: 0
Unranked: 1
Round 1: Ziggy Ansah
Notre Dame
Total: 24
4/5 star: 21
3-star: 3
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Tyler Eifert
UMass
Total: 1
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
None: Army, Liberty, New Mexico State
MAC
Buffalo
Total: 1
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Khalil Mack
Central Michigan
Total: 2
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 2
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Eric Fisher
Kent State
Total: 2
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 2
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Miami (Ohio)
Total: 2
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 1
2-star: 0
Unranked: 1
Round 1: None
Northern Illinois
Total: 3
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 2
Unranked: 1
Round 1: Jimmie Ward
Ohio
Total: 1
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Toledo
Total: 2
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 1
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Western Michigan
Total: 3
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 1
2-star: 2
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Corey Davis
None: Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan
Mountain West
Boise State
Total: 13
4/5 star: 1
3-star: 9
2-star: 2
Unranked: 1
Round 1: Shea McClellin, Doug Martin, Leighton Vander Esch
Colorado State
Total: 5
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 3
2-star: 2
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Fresno State
Total: 2
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 1
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Hawaii
Total: 2
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 1
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Nevada
Total: 2
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 1
Unranked: 1
Round 1: None
San Diego State
Total: 6
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 2
2-star: 3
Unranked: 1
Round 1: Rashaad Penny
San Jose State
Total: 1
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 2
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Utah State
Total: 6
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 1
2-star: 5
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Jordan Love
Wyoming
Total: 2
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 1
Unranked: 1
Round 1: Josh Allen
None: Air Force, New Mexico, UNLV
Pac-12
Arizona
Total: 2
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 2
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Arizona State
Total: 6
4/5 star: 1
3-star: 4
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Damarious Randall, Brandon Aiyuk
California
Total: 11
4/5 star: 4
3-star: 6
2-star: 0
Unranked: 1
Round 1: Cameron Jordan
Colorado
Total: 8
4/5 star: 1
3-star: 7
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Nate Solder, Jimmy Smith
Oregon
Total: 12
4/5 star: 6
3-star: 6
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Kyle Long, Marcus Mariota, Justin Herbert
Oregon State
Total: 8
4/5 star: 3
3-star: 4
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Stanford
Total: 20
4/5 star: 8
3-star: 12
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: David DeCastro
UCLA
Total: 15
4/5 star: 13
3-star: 2
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
USC
Total: 23
4/5 star: 21
3-star: 2
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Utah
Total: 13
4/5 star: 3
3-star: 10
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Star Lotulelei
Washington
Total: 19
4/5 star: 8
3-star: 10
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Desmond Trufant, Marcus Peters, John Ross, Vita Vea
Washington State
Total: 3
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 1
2-star: 1
Unranked: 1
Round 1: Deone Bucannon
SEC
Alabama
Total: 54
4/5 star: 48
3-star: 6
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Marcell Dareus, Chance Warmack, Ryan Kelly, Josh Jacobs
Arkansas
Total: 7
4/5 star: 4
3-star: 3
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Frank Ragnow
Auburn
Total: 16
4/5 star: 13
3-star: 3
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Nick Fairley, Dee Ford
Florida
Total: 27
4/5 star: 21
3-star: 6
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Jarrad Davis, Taven Bryan
Georgia
Total: 22
4/5 star: 19
3-star: 3
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Dandre Baker
Kentucky
Total: 7
4/5 star: 2
3-star: 5
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Bud Dupree, Josh Allen
LSU
Total: 45
4/5 star: 33
3-star: 10
2-star: 2
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Morris Claiborne, Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Mississippi State
Total: 17
4/5 star: 7
3-star: 9
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Montez Sweat, Johnathan Abram
Missouri
Total: 13
4/5 star: 4
3-star: 6
2-star: 3
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Aldon Smith, Shane Ray, Charles Harris
Ole Miss
Total: 11
4/5 star: 8
3-star: 1
2-star: 1
Unranked: 1
Round 1: Evan Engram
South Carolina
Total: 11
4/5 star: 7
3-star: 3
2-star: 0
Unranked: 1
Round 1: Hayden Hurst, Javon Kinlaw
Tennessee
Total: 9
4/5 star: 7
3-star: 2
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Texas A&M
Total: 18
4/5 star: 10
3-star: 7
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: Ryan Tannehill, Johnny Manziel, Germain Ifedi
Vanderbilt
Total: 6
4/5 star: 3
3-star: 3
2-star: 0
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Sun Belt
Appalachian State
Total: 2
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 1
Unranked: 1
Round 1: None
Arkansas State
Total: 1
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
Georgia Southern
Total: 2
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 1
2-star: 0
Unranked: 1
Round 1: None
Louisiana Lafayette
Total: 3
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 3
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
South Alabama
Total: 1
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 0
Unranked: 1
Round 1: None
Texas State
Total: 1
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 0
2-star: 0
Unranked: 1
Round 1: None
Troy
Total: 2
4/5 star: 0
3-star: 1
2-star: 1
Unranked: 0
Round 1: None
None: Coastal Carolina, Georgia State, UL Monroe
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