Ulster SFC 2024: 'My heart tells me Donegal can win, but Derry may have too much' - Michael Murphy column

Make no mistake: since the Ulster Championship draw in October pitted Derry and Donegal together in the quarter-final, the respective counties have been counting down the days to Saturday's game in Celtic Park.

It's the one everyone's been waiting for. Look, Derry v Donegal would have been a cracking game anyway, but with Mickey Harte's move to Derry and Jim McGuinness' return to Donegal, it's been elevated to unmissable status.

The game is finally here, and it's brilliantly poised. Derry, already Ulster's kingpins, come into the championship off the back of winning the Division One title.

Donegal, meanwhile, have risen steadily under McGuinness, who achieved his first objective in gaining promotion back to the top tier and winning Division Two.

The first three games in the Ulster Championship didn't exactly set the world alight, but Derry and Donegal have the potential to produce one of the games of the season.

My heart will always tell me that Donegal can win, and while Jim's positive influence has strengthened my belief in this Donegal team, I can't get past the idea that getting to the very top requires a timeframe.

Donegal are only seven months into this journey. Last year, not only did they lose a lot of games, but they also lost some of that physicality that you get from playing the best teams in the country.

That's only now being rediscovered, and while they have most of their key players back playing together, it's going to take more time to reach the level Jim and his coaching staff are targeting.

Derry are in a different position. This group have built cohesion, conditioning and a winning formula over the past five years. They've had big wins in Ulster finals and crushing defeats in All-Ireland semi-finals.

They have been through a lot together and it's hard to look past that going into Saturday.

• Derry must embrace 'hunted' tag against Donegal

• Championship fixtures/results

McBrearty and Gallen key for Donegal

There has been a marked improvement in Donegal's performances this year. As you would expect from a Jim McGuinness team, you can see the buy-in from the players. From what I've seen, there is a collective effort to make games as hard as possible for the opposition.

Donegal have attacked quickly off turnover ball and have benefitted from the form of Patrick McBrearty and Oisin Gallen up front. Not only in terms of scores - their creativity and general work-rate has been phenomenal.

Their roles will be key this weekend. Given the threat posed by Derry's full-back line, McBrearty and Gallen will be needed in defence, where Caolan McGonagle has impressed at centre half-back.

If we take Derry's game with Monaghan last year as an example, when Monaghan's key forwards Jack McCarron and Conor McManus were on the field, Chrissy McKaigue and Conor McCluskey really put them on the back foot when Derry had the ball. It was a key strategy that worked well for Derry.

McBrearty and Gallen's defensive output has progressed massively, but they face a huge challenge this weekend against Derry's runners.

'Kick-outs crucial'

The kick-out battle will be fascinating to watch this weekend and will play a big part in determining the outcome.

Derry's Odhran Lynch is perhaps the most aggressive goalkeeper at getting away short kick-outs. If a Derry player makes even a yard or two separation from his marker, Lynch will hit it. Derry value possession from their kick-outs so much in helping them build attacks and are willing to risk that.

But Donegal, as we saw throughout the league, have worked hard to give the opposition a hard time at kick-outs. That battle between Derry's ability to build attacks from short kick-outs and Donegal's aggression in pressing kick-outs could be one of the most fascinating sub-plots on Saturday.

On the Donegal side, Shaun Patton has a booming kick-out. With Celtic Park being a tight and narrow surface, he could land his kicks in the Derry 45. But Derry, like Donegal, don't like giving teams handy possession from kick-outs. We saw that against Dublin in the Division One final.

Because of that, the midfield battle is going to be really competitive. Donegal have big players in the backline to take on the likes of Conor Glass and Brendan Rogers. Caolan McGonagle, Jason McGee, Michael Langan, Ciaran Thompson, they're all 6ft 2in-plus.

And given Patton's length, Donegal may look to go over Derry's high press and boom the ball as far down the field as possible. Both teams are efficient at carving out shots in possession, so it's hard to overstate the importance of winning kick-out ball.

One of the big questions is: how do Donegal stop Derry when Derry have the ball?

Derry are so efficient and skilful at crafting attacks. It comes from familiarity. They have played with each other for a few years and all understand each other's roles closely.

They have a marquee forward in Shane McGuigan who can shoot the lights out and Ethan Doherty, who despite being young player of the year in 2023, is still one of the most underrated forwards in the country.

On top of that, Eoin McEvoy hit 3-5 throughout the league, McCluskey scored three goals while Lachlan Murray added some unpredictability to Derry's attack. All told, it's a serious amount of firepower for any opposing team to contend with.

In the McKenna Cup final, Donegal dropped a bit deep so it will be interesting to see if they press higher and try to engage Derry higher up the field on Saturday.

Whatever transpires, I'm sure we'll be glued to it to the bitter end.

'Tyrone could be dark horses'

There has been plenty of discussion around Derry, Donegal and Armagh, who will be in the final again if they beat Down in next week's semi-final, but I think Tyrone could be real dark horses this year.

They had mixed results during the league, but they still possess an exceptional amount of quality. And any time they are written off or fly under the radar, they tend to deliver.

Tyrone were hammered by Dublin in their last Division One game, but it's easy to forget that they shipped six goals to Kerry in their final league fixture in 2021, and look how that year turned out for them.

In Darragh Canavan, they have one of the top three attackers in the game. They have solid man-markers at the back and a first-class goalkeeper in Niall Morgan.

The big challenge for Tyrone is curbing Paddy Lynch's influence on this Cavan team. He kicked over 50% of their scores in the league and hit 1-9 against Monaghan.

He will certainly focus the minds of the Tyrone defenders but there are no better men than Padraig Hampsey and Michael McKernan to take on that particular challenge.

Cavan are coming off the back of an impressive win over Monaghan and will have big numbers out in Breffni Park for the visit of Tyrone.

For Cavan, copying their template from the Monaghan game to create tension amongst the Tyrone ranks might be the best way forward, but I can't help but think Tyrone will relish this quarter-final as an opportunity to sharpen their sword ahead of possible semi-final showdown with Derry or Donegal.