Should conference title games continue in playoff expansion era? Commissioners mulling future of college football

This weekend is one of college football’s crown jewels.

A buffet of conference championship games unfold over a 28-hour period starting Friday night and ending in the wee hours of Sunday morning. The 10-game lineup features five top-20 matchups, two top-eight clashes, a few Heisman Trophy candidates and the sport’s blue-blood powers, including Texas, Georgia, Michigan, Florida State and Alabama.

Television ratings will be superb, attendance incredible and competition intense.

But in an expanded playoff era, a question looms for some of the sport’s most influential leaders: Are conference championship games necessary?

“I do think that people are going to have to look at that,” said Mike Aresco, commissioner of the American Athletic Conference.

“We are in a period of change and assessment,” ACC commissioner Jim Phillips said. “Conference championships should be assessed. Is it necessary to play a 13th game?”

A year from now, with an expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, conference championship weekend will have a much different feel than it does now.

Under a four-team postseason format, championship games, in many cases, are quasi-quarterfinals or elimination games — compelling matchups with incredible stakes on the line. For example, each of the five major conference title bouts include one, if not two, CFP contenders that, with a loss, will likely find themselves on the outside of a four-team field.

In a 12-team format, that’s less likely to be the case.

Seven of the 10 teams participating in this year’s Power Five championship games would already be in the 12-team field — win or lose this weekend. In fact, over the past five seasons — excluding the anomaly of 2020 — 28 of the 50 teams that participated in their conference title games would've secured a berth in a 12-team playoff before championship weekend whether they won or lost. Seven more of those teams would've advanced to a 12-team CFP if they didn’t play in a championship game.

In an expanded postseason, many of the stakes in conference title games are built around attaining one of the four first-round byes designated for conference champions — something that could be determined during the regular season. Is the 13th game really worth it?

As playoff expansion draws closer, it’s a question asked more and more by those in charge.

“The championship game is a huge part of our season,” Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti said. “Deciding a champion on the field, there is history to it. It means a lot. It’s been the right way to do things for a while.

“But down the road as the playoff changes, are there other ideas to consider?” he asked. “Yes.”

Conference championship games are not deeply rooted in college athletics. Many of them started just in the past decade, including the Sun Belt (2018), Big 12 (2017) and AAC (2015). Others aren’t far behind: Mountain West (2013), Pac-12 (2011), Big Ten (2011), ACC (2005), Conference-USA (2005) and the MAC (1997).

The SEC owns the original, started in 1992. And while the league has held discussions over the future of the championship game, commissioner Greg Sankey says his membership believes it to be the most appropriate way to crown a champion.

“As the conference with the most experience conducting conference championship games, we continue to believe it is an important part of determining a conference champion,” he said. “The [expanded playoff] system is predicated on conference champions being identified in a clear way. As things change, we’ve had the conversation, but what I’ve described to you is the overall destination of that dialogue.”

However, the thought of playing an extra game against stiff competition and with little at stake before potentially playing three or four more playoff games is an issue for many stakeholders, especially coaches. Among many in the coaching community, there is brewing concern about competing in a game if a team has already secured a spot in the 12-team field.

Coaches have informed their corresponding commissioners and athletic administrators about their feelings, even suggesting they bench players in a conference championship game to avoid injuries ahead of a playoff run, multiple stakeholders told Yahoo Sports.

The current expanded CFP format grants six automatic berths to the highest-ranked conference champions — the top four get byes — and six at-large spots for the next highest-ranked teams. However, in light of the Pac-12’s collapse, commissioners recently recommended that the 6+6 format change to 5+7, subtracting one automatic bid and adding an at-large spot.

This weekend, a host of participants in championship games would be locks for a 12-team field, including Michigan, Texas and Florida State, along with all four participants in the Pac-12 and SEC games (Oregon, Washington, Alabama and Georgia). In a 12-team CFP, only a first-round bye is at stake for those programs.

Three teams this weekend would have a shot to go from out of the CFP to into it by winning games to earn their league’s automatic spot: Oklahoma State, Louisville and Iowa.

“Whether the playoff is the current 12 or if it goes to 16, I think the enthusiasm for conference championship games will begin to wane,” Washington athletic director Troy Dannen said. “You’ll start to feel a little different about conference championship games even though they are play-in games for some.”

Dannen’s Huskies (12-0) meet Oregon (11-1) in a Pac-12 championship game that is a rematch of an October regular-season game between the two.

“The only thing that can happen in this game next year is somebody getting hurt,” Dannen said.

The injury risk is not insignificant, Aresco said.

College athletics is in the midst of one of the most transformative periods of its existence, with athletes holding their most power ever. Athlete health and well-being is a discussion point as concussion lawsuits and other legal entanglements are filed against the NCAA and power leagues.

Those competing in championship games normally played an intense game the week before during rivalry weekend. That could mean playing a half-season’s worth of games to end the year if a team advances to the national championship.

“There’s a real issue there in terms of how much you put your guys through,” Aresco said.

“It’s something we need to look at,” Mountain West commissioner Gloria Nevarez said. “Number of games and numbers of plays is a direct correlation to student-athlete health.”

There are, of course, plenty of drawbacks to eliminating a conference title game, the financial piece being one of them.

Championship games are often incorporated into a conference’s television package. The SEC and Big Ten championship games are estimated to hold a television value of more than $40 million, experts say. Even the Big 12 championship game is priced at about $25 million-$30 million.

Ticket revenue from championship games is not insignificant, either. The cheapest tickets for this weekend’s SEC championship game in Atlanta are $325. Couple the television value with ticket revenue from a sold-out venue, and such an event is hard to replace financially.

However, there are ways. The CFP could use new television revenues from an expanded playoff to compensate leagues that choose to end their championship games. The organization is expected to earn at least $1 billion annually from a new television deal for the 12-team playoff.

But title game benefits go beyond money, Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark said. The Big 12’s title game will be broadcast in 144 countries and streamed in New York’s Time Square.

“From a marketing, brand and reach perspective, it’s of huge value for us,” he said. “We look at it as a tentpole event. It’s a great game but also a great show.”

It’s also important to the majority of college football teams that are devoid of the rich resources necessary to advance consistently to the playoff field. Many of the 133 FBS teams start the season with the expressed goal of reaching their league championship game, not the national championship.

“Is that what’s best for college football, to eliminate conference championship games?” asked Judy MacLeod, commissioner of Conference USA. “What about the other 100-plus teams who don’t play in the playoffs? You are taking away championship opportunities.”

Of all the drawbacks of eliminating title games, the most troublesome might be determining a conference champion based only on regular-season results. Leagues are expanding to greater numbers and eliminating divisions — both of which could cause problems.

In such large divisions, it’s impossible for each team to play every other team in a single season. Imagine a conference using a convoluted tie-breaking procedure for a three-team tie at the top of the regular-season standings. The tiebreaker would determine what team earns the league’s automatic bid and first-round bye into the playoff.

“You really want your championship decided by a computer rating?” asked Jon Steinbrecher, MAC commissioner. “We made decisions on the expanded playoff thinking we’d all have championship games. I don’t know why we’d back away from those now.”

Not holding a championship game resulted in issues in 2014, the first year of the four-team CFP.

The selection committee left out of the field 11-1 TCU and Baylor, co-champions of the Big 12, which then did not hold a conference championship game. It instead included 12-1 Ohio State, which won its 13th game in the Big Ten championship.

After ending its championship game in 2010, the Big 12 restarted its title game in 2017 to avoid the absence of the infamous “13th data point.”

Suddenly, in the era of CFP expansion, is it time for everyone to eliminate the 13th data point?

“It’s a really good question,” Sun Belt commissioner Keith Gill said. “You can see the argument of having your best team play [in the conference championship game] and lose. But you could also see how it might put you in a place for a better seeding or get into the playoff.”

For Group of Five programs, the situation is much different than their Power Five (soon Power Four) counterparts. In a 5+7 playoff model, the Group of 5 is likely to get only one team into the field — its highest-ranked conference champion.

That team could dramatically change given the results of title games. For instance, Tulane would likely get the G5 bid this year as the highest-ranked G5 and champion of the AAC. But if the Green Wave loses its championship game this weekend, the bid likely goes to unbeaten Liberty, which must win its own title game in Conference USA.

Phillips, of the ACC, believes leaders will continuously evaluate their championship games over the first several years of the expanded playoff. Is it working? Did it cost us a spot? Did it get us a spot?

However, a key issue looms in eliminating them: television contracts. Most league title games are built into the conference’s media rights agreements, some of which span another decade. The ACC is locked into a TV deal with ESPN for the next 13 years.

“Part of the complexities of the situation is media rights and what you’ve already sold,” Phillips said.

Television plays a part in other ways as well.

The elimination of championship games could alleviate a cramped December where officials are attempting to play eight new playoff games while going head-to-head with the NFL. That’s problematic for broadcasting windows.

For now, the four CFP first-round games are scheduled to kick off the third week of December. One game will be played on Friday, Dec. 20, and three games on Saturday, Dec. 21, which pits college football against the NFL. In the third week of December, the NFL begins playing games on Saturday, as well as their traditional Sunday and at night on Monday and Thursdays. Prime-time television windows are clogged.

With the elimination of conference title games, could college officials shift the Army-Navy game to what is now championship weekend and begin the 12-team playoff in the second week of December?

“The second weekend of December is a gold mine,” said retiring Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick, a member of the CFP Management Committee of commissioners. “The NFL can start to go on Week 3. We are starting on Week 3. Figuring out how to capture the second weekend in December has to be a high priority for the future leadership of the CFP.”

Cutting the 13th game would also make it more possible to further expand the 12-team playoff to 14 or 16, for instance. “It might take something like no more conference championships to get that to expand,” MacLeod said.

So what’s the answer? The opinions seem to vary greatly. Some want to seriously explore eliminating league championships, others are vehemently against it, and a third group is in between.

“As college athletics is under tremendous transition, I think you need to be open right now and thoughtful on what it looks like in the future,” said Alabama athletic director Greg Byrne, whose team has played in the SEC championship game seven of the past 10 years.

Georgia athletic director Josh Brooks believes in preserving league title games. Clinching a first-round bye in the expanded playoff is valuable enough to continue holding the SEC championship game, in which the Bulldogs have played six of the past seven years.

“I’m a big fan of the game,” he said. “It’s special.”

And so, as college football enters its last championship weekend before the playoff expansion era begins, the question is likely to linger for several more years.

Should conference championship games continue?

“I’ve always said this,” Petitti said. “I believe that formats and playoff systems, all those things, tend to evolve. This could be an area where it stays the same, or it might be something that you continue to think about differently.”