Ranking 8 potential QB trade targets if the Carolina Panthers can’t get Deshaun Watson
Panthers general manager Scott Fitterer has lived up to his word that Carolina would “be in on every deal.” The team nearly pulled off a trade for Matt Stafford last weekend and they’re also reported to be ready to “aggressively” pursue Deshaun Watson. It’s clear they are one of the many NFL teams prepared to make a major change at quarterback this offseason.
While we desperately want to see Watson wearing a Panthers uniform, realistically, it’s probably not going to happen. For one thing, the Texans are still saying he’s not available. That may change if Watson is committed to holding out, but for now we should assume he is out of reach. Even if Watson does eventually wind up on the trade block, there are at least two other teams with more to offer – and they’ve already been mentioned by Watson among his preferred destinations.
Aside from Watson there’s only one other quarterback who should be considered off-limits. Clemson stud Trevor Lawrence is the presumed No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft. The Jaguars will either choose him or pillage another team for a decade’s worth of draft capital and move down. Either way, Lawrence coming to Carolina is less likely than Watson.
Aside from them, every other QB who might become available is worth consideration, though.
We have already examined the other top 2021 draft prospects, including Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Mac Jones.
Today, let’s focus on potential swaps for passers who are already in the NFL and could be on the move. Here are eight QBs who are potential trade targets, ranked based on how much we like the fit/risk.
Thanks but no thanks: Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
First, let's take a look at a few quarterbacks who almost meet the standards of what Carolina should be seeking in a non-Watson QB trade, but fall just short for one reason or another. The Vikings, Raiders and 49ers are all expected to be in on a new quarterback, which means Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo could all be on the move soon. We're grouping them together here for a few reasons: first, because their games are somewhat limited in similar ways and they're also just not what we'd prefer to see in a future Panthers QB. They all have their moments and in any given season one of them might be a legitimate top-10 QB. That said, none of them consistently compete at that level from week to week. Garoppolo might wow you with a pinpoint 35-yard dime on one play, then throw a hilarious head-scratching interception the next. Carr also makes a fair number of pretty throws, but like Teddy Bridgewater he's not the kind of QB who can carry a team to a win. Cousins is probably the most gifted of the three but his age (32 years old) disqualifies him from serious consideration. Garoppolo and Carr are both 29, which is still a little too old to make them worth rebuilding around. Stafford's age would have made him an exception to this rule because he's a far better passer but if Fitterer is really determined to make a trade he should be shooting for someone more dynamic than these guys.
Verdict:
While it's technically true that trading for any one of these three QBs would be a step up from Bridgewater, the gains wouldn't be great enough to justify the deal. We'd rather let Teddy try again and see if he can build on some of the good things he did in 2020. His age (28) and year of experience with the Panthers' receivers makes him a more qualified candidate.
Close but no cigar: Sam Darnold, Carson Wentz
Jerry Habraken, The News Journal
This next group consists of two guys: Jets quarterback Sam Darnold and Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz. Darnold is entering his fourth year in the NFL and his job as the starter is clearly in jeopardy. New York holds the No. 2 pick in the draft this year, which will almost certainly be used on a QB prospect. Assuming Lawrence goes at No. 1, the Jets will have their pick of Wilson, Fields or Lance. There's a possibility the Jets will want to give Darnold a chance to show what he can do without Adam Gase. Other quarterbacks have taken a big leap after they get out from under his pernicious influence. Ryan Tannehill is perhaps the best example. His transformation since going to the Titans is interesting enough to make Darnold worth more than a passing glance. The trouble with Darnold is that it's tough to say how much of an upgrade he'd be over Bridgewater, if at all. There's potential there, but his production to date is a bit of a yellow flag, even considering the horrible handicap that is playing for the Jets. He's only thrown 45 touchdowns to go with 39 interceptions so far and completed less than 60% of his passes. He has averaged 6.6 yards per attempt and has a career 78.6 passer rating. It's easy to envision Darnold's numbers improving in Carolina with a potent receiver corps and Joe Brady calling the shots. Still, they might only be in Bridgewater territory. Still, we don't hate the idea of bringing him in. Darnold is just 24 years old, his salary cap number in 2021 is under $10 million and picking up his fifth-year option would keep his price low for at least another season. As for Wentz, he has far more upside than Darnold - to say nothing of Carr, Cousins or Garoppolo. At his peak in 2017 he was a legitimate MVP candidate before the knee injury that began his downward trajectory. When he's healthy there's no question Wentz has the physical tools to play at a high level in the NFL and with the right coaching he might be able to get back there. That said, the mental side of his game looks utterly broken. At times in 2020 he looked like Brett Favre at the tail end of a sleepless 72-hour energy drink binge. Put it another way: Wentz tried to do too much and frequently wound up making embarassing mistakes as a result. Wentz also has a monstrosity of a contract to contend with - his cap number in 2021 alone is over $34 million and he still has three more years of similar cap hits after that. We know Wentz's ceiling far exceeds Bridgewater's. However, his basement is also clearly much lower.
Verdict:
Offering the Jets a mid-round pick for Darnold is worth considering. However, there are much bigger fish to fry out there. In Wentz's case, taking on his contract and hoping 2017 wasn't a fluke is too great of a gamble. Until somebody proves his issues can be fixed, Teddy is the better option.
Maybe, just maybe: Tua Tagovailoa
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
In the unlikely event that Watson does get traded, Miami is the most likely destination. The Dolphins have a history of making big deals with Houston and are loaded with good picks and highly-tradeable assets, including last year's No. 5 overall selection, former Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa posted video game numbers under Nick Saban in college, including 87 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 10.9 yards per attempt and a career passer rating just under 200. He also did damage with his legs, totaling 340 yards and nine touchdowns as a rusher. Tua has all the assets you want in a modern quarterback. His speed, mobility and big-play arm gives him about as much upside as any young passer in the league. That said, Tagovailoa's rookie year was bit underwhelming. He started out as a backup behind Ryan Fitzpatrick, who wound up having a better season. Once he got to play, Tua didn't flash much. In nine games, he went 6-3 but that had a lot more to do with Miami's suffocating defense than anything Tagovailoa was doing. He completed 64.1% of his throws, averaged just 6.3 yards per attempt and finished with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions. Clearly, the Dolphins coaching staff was trying not to put too much on Tua's plate. The gameplan called for a lot of checkdowns and dumpoffs, so it's difficult to say exactly where Tagovailoa's ceiling is right now. There is still oodles of potential there, though. With another offseason to catch up to the speed of the NFL game and a thicker playbook to work with, Tua may yet turn into something special at this level. It's also not hard at all to imagine him thriving in Joe Brady's offense.
Verdict:
Tagovailoa is a superb trade target based on his youth, contract, athletic profile and upside. The problem of course is that it will cost a ton of draft capital to get him. It may take another first or multiple mid-round picks for Miami to even consider a deal, even if they land Watson. Tua is a gem in this crazy 2021 QB situation and nobody would be in any position to complain if the Panthers somehow pulled this off. However, there are others who may offer more value.
Getting warmer: Jalen Hurts
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Word on the street is that Carson Wentz wants out of Philadelphia and a lot of teams around the league are rumored to have interest. The recent hiring of Nick Sirianni as head coach would seem to suggest that the Eagles would prefer to keep Wentz and try to fix his issues rather than trade him away. That said, it's hard to tell what the Eagles are really up to these days. When teams are in chaos there's opportunities to take advantage. While it seems unlikely that Philly would be willing to part with Jalen Hurts after just one year, we can't rule anything out at this point. Like Tua, Hurts put up some ridiculous passing stats in college - especially after he left Alabama for Oklahoma his senior season. In 56 total games as an amateur he posted 80 touchdown throws, 20 picks, 9.1 yards per attempt and a 162.6 passer rating. Hurts was far more prolific on the ground, too - racking up a remarkable 3,274 yards and 43 touchdowns. Among current QBs, Hurts' game most resembles Kyler Murray, who is already a top-10 QB in our opinion and has a future league-MVP ceiling. Hurts took his lumps as a rookie, as well though. In four games as a starter he went 1-3, throwing just six touchdowns to go with four interceptions and an ugly 41 QBR. He also only completed 52% of his passes and averaged a mediocre 7.2 yards per attempt. That said, Hurts pulled off some incredible throws and demonstrated a flair for making plays in the clutch. He produced in the run game, as well - posting 25 first downs, three scores and 354 yards on just 63 rushing attempts (5.6 YPC). On the field Hurts looks dynamic, fast and aggressive-minded, in other words, everything Teddy Bridgewater is not.
Verdict:
It's hard to predict what will happen with Hurts and Wentz. Both may have robust trade markets for different reasons, but Hurts is obviously the preferred choice given his age, rookie contract and arm talent. There's still one other guy who could be a better bargain, though.
Now we're talking: Gardner Minshew
Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports
Nothing is certain under the sun, least of all in the NFL draft. However, Trevor Lawrence going to Jacksonville at No. 1 overall is as close to a guarantee as it gets. That means we have likely seen the last of Gardner Minshew starting for the Jaguars. Unlike Hurts or Tagovailoa, Minshew (25) has no truly gaudy college numbers to boast of. He put in his first two college seasons at East Carolina University. There he totaled 24 touchdowns, 11 picks and 127.1 passer rating. Then he transferred to Washington State, where he posted 38 touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 70.7% completion rate as a senior. After his time with the Cougars, Minshew slipped to the sixth round of the 2019 NFL draft, where the Jaguars picked him at No. 178 overall. Since then, Minshew has started 20 games, compiling a 7-13 record. His NFL production has been respectable if not overwhelming or eye-catching. Minshew's posted 37 touchdowns, 11 picks, 7.2 yards per attempt and an only-0average 93.1 passer rating. Those stats can be deceiving, though. Jacksonville has fallen on hard times since their 2017 squad pushed the Patriots to the brink in the AFC Championship. They lack playmakers at too many positions to even count, which was the main reason they finished 1-15 this year and wound up with the first pick in the draft. Minshew has a strong rapport with the underrated D.J. Chark, but there's no true WR1 on their roster. Truth is, he could have done a lot more with a receiver corps as stacked Carolina's. Some of the advanced stats suggest Minshew's a diamond in the rough, too. According to Pro Football Focus, he had the NFL's third-highest passer rating against the blitz this season. In addition to being sharp against pressure, Minshew is far more accurate than his completion percentage suggests and his on-target throw % was among league leaders all year. On film, Minshew has a gorgeous deep ball and plays the position fearlessly, if a little reckless at times. His aggressive instincts are worth encouraging though, especially after the checkdown parade we just witnessed from Teddy Bridgewater. Overall, his game is still a bit raw. However, in the right situation Minshew could have a shocking breakout type of season similar to the one Josh Allen just had in Buffalo. Minshew would be a grand bargain from a contract perspective, as well. His total cap hits over the next two years come out to less than $2 million, which means Carolina could easily make room for him without having to move Bridgewater and his ill-conceived bridge QB deal. Even better, dealing for Minshew might only require one mid-round pick.
Verdict:
Admittedly, there are other young QBs on this list who are superior athletes with a higher ceiling. That said, Minshew has enticing qualities and has made enough flashy throws to convince us that he can be a well above-average starter in the NFL. With the right pieces around him, he might even be a Pro Bowler. Trading for Minshew is exactly the kind of low-risk, potential high-reward move that championship teams make. There may be no other player who could offer this franchise more overall value in a trade. [vertical-gallery id=633600]
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