Predicting where all remaining Pac-12 teams could end up
Let me start by saying I am not declaring that the Pac-12 Conference is dead. I am not pushing for a world where one of the most storied and historic conferences in the nation crumbles to the ground and disbands after the strongest teams in the league defect for greener grass.
All I’m doing is acknowledging a world in which that outcome is possible — a world that seems more and more likely with each passing day.
A year ago, the USC Trojans and UCLA Bruins knocked the conference off-balance by announcing their departure to the Big Ten. A week ago, the Colorado Buffaloes knocked the Pac-12 to the mat by announcing their departure to the Big 12. On Wednesday, the Big Ten took aim with the knock-out punch — an announcement that it was considering further expansion. All eyes were on both the Oregon Ducks and Washington Huskies, plus the Stanford Cardinal and California Golden Bears, should they be feeling greedy.
I’m not here pushing for teams to leave the Pac-12 conference and play their football elsewhere; it’s a reality that has become impossible to ignore over the last 13 months.
At this rate, you could reasonably convince me that in a week’s time, there will be only a handful of teams remaining in the Pac-12, with some of the top remaining teams taking off for greener grass. So should these defections continue to happen, and it ultimately end in the death of the Pac-12, where would everyone go?
Here are my predictions:
Arizona Wildcats
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Big 12: 100%
Other: 0%
Reasoning: Arizona has been the leading candidate to be the next Big 12 school from the Pac-12. While it seems the remaining Four Corner schools will go together, I think the Wildcats are leading the charge. It’s Big 12 all the way for Zona.
Arizona State Sun Devils
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Big 12: 100%
Other: 0%
Reasoning: Where Arizona goes, I think Arizona State will follow. They will likely be a package deal, and should the Big 12 be OK with expanding to more than 16 teams, ASU would likely be in the mix.
California Golden Bears
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Big Ten: 60%
Independent: 30%
Mountain West: 10%
Reasoning: It wouldn’t shock me if Cal was one of the teams to go to the Big Ten. It also wouldn’t shock me to see it go independent. It is right on the bubble of being a big enough name to go to the Big Ten, and I think being in a Berkley, California, market (San Francisco) will help. However, there is also a chance it is left standing in a diminished Pac-12 and have to settle for a Mountain West merger in the end.
Oregon Ducks
Photo courtesy of Ethan Landa
Big Ten: 95%
Pac-12: 5%
Reasoning: A slam-dunk decision. The Ducks are arguably the biggest brand in the Pac-12, and they are continually at the top of the rankings. Oregon is among the teams best suited to compete in the Big Ten, and reportedly among the conference’s top targets when it comes to expansion. Should an invite not come from the Big Ten, though, I do see a world in which Oregon rallies everyone in the Pac-12 and tries to stick it out until the next realignment cycle.
Oregon State Beavers
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Mountain West: 98%
Other: 2%
Reasoning: Of all the teams left in the Pac-12, the Beavers might be in one of the toughest spots. They are not a big enough brand or in a big enough market to get an invite to the Big Ten or the Big-12, and they aren’t academically elite enough to go independent. In the end, I think OSU will be left standing as one of the final teams in the Pac-12 and be forced to merge with the Mountain West.
Stanford Cardinal
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Big Ten: 50%
Independent: 50%
Reasoning: It just feels right that Stanford would go the Notre Dame route and go independent, doesn’t it? It is a prestigious institution that could do well on its own. If it needed a home, though, I could it fitting in the Big Ten. It brings the academics, the history and a Palo Alto media market. That’s valuable.
Utah Utes
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Big 12: 98%
Pac-12: 2%
Reasoning: You can lump Utah with the other Four Corner schools in the Pac-12 that are most likely to head to the Big 12. If Arizona and Arizona State leave, there’s almost a 100% chance Utah follows. However, some recent reporting from 247Sports’ Jason Scheer shows Utah has been hesitant to leave the Pac-12. Much like Oregon, I do think there is a world where the Utes stay as a tentpole program in the Pac-12 and rally everyone else around.
Washington Huskies
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Big Ten: 100%
Other: 0%
Reasoning: If Arizona and Arizona State are tied at the hip, I believe Oregon and Washington are stuck together as well. The two are reportedly the leading candidates to go to the Big Ten, per Wednesday’s reporting, which makes sense. Washington has a national brand and the Seattle media market. They are undoubtedly to be one of the most coveted free agents on the board should the Pac-12 break apart.
Washington State Cougars
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Mountain West: 98%
Other: 2%
Reasoning: Much like Oregon State, it’s not a great time to be Washington State. It isn’t big enough or in a big enough market to get an invite from one of the power conferences, which will likely leave it without a seat at the table in the end, forced to merge with the Mountain West.
