There are only 3 ways for Cowboys to screw up No. 10, picking Parsons is one of them
It wasn’t a pleasure-filled journey to get here, but here we are. The Dallas Cowboys are sitting pretty with the No. 10 overall pick after a 6-10 campaign that saw almost every available body have to be used due to injuries. Dallas employed four quarterbacks, umpteen offensive line combinations, their top three free agents all off the roster by midseason and just a myriad of things going wrong stemming all the way back to the hiring of Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator.
Whew. It was a lot. But the NFL draft is a saving grace from a lost season. The Cowboys have a top-10 pick in a draft that seems to be QB-top heavy and without a need for a QB as Dak Prescott is locked in for the next three and likely four seasons. To compound the joy, the Cowboys are loaded on talent on offense and, while they can always add more, are in a prime position to take defense when most of the teams above them will be focusing on grabbing weapons in attempts to catch up to where Dallas already is.
That means there are very few ways the Cowboys can screw this up. In fact, I can only think of three.
Preferred Options
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It's hard to argue against the theory there are five prime candidates for the Cowboys to select from. In some order, the majority of the fans would be happy or at least understand the logic behind selecting TE Kyle Pitts, OTs-who-can-start-at-guard Rashawn Slater and Penei Sewell and of course the top two corners of Patrick Surtain and Jaycee Horn. There really is only one doomsday scenario when Dallas is not able to select one of those five. With nine picks in front of them and the first three almost guaranteed to be QB-QB-QB, the addition of LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase leaves just five slots remaining before the Cowboys are on the clock. The expectation, but not guaranteed, is that a fourth quarterback or one of the two Alabama wideouts will join that group. The more from that trio who jump into the top 9, the better the options are for Dallas. But in that doomsday scenario where all five are gone, what happens then?
Acceptable Consolation Prizes
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In that wipeout scenario, there are still some top-level players who would be acceptable choices for Dallas. Northwestern CB Greg Newsome II is seen in some circles as very close to Surtain and Horn. Alijah Vera-Tucker out of USC is seen as the top guard prospect and has tackle experience. Out of the two Alabama receivers, Jaylen Waddle seems like he would be the top choice to add to a dominating group of receivers that is only missing the blazing speed element. At this point, the Cowboys could also consider trading back in the draft. They'd likely, depending on how far back they go, would be able to still grab one of these names or several others that make sense later in the first round.
Potential Mistake No. 1
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The one major thing the Cowboys can absolutely not do is to trade up in this draft's first round. Later on? Sure, when the price isn't as steep, but the loss of draft capital required to trade up in the top 10 is just a dumb idea unless a team is looking to acquire a quarterback. The trade value charts are screwed in a top-heavy way and non-QBs just don't impact the quality of a team an iota of how QBs do. If there's a trade in the top 10, it's almost always smarter to be the team going down instead of up unless a QB is involved. More to the point, Pitts is a unicorn that could send the offense into the stratosphere, but the quality of (presumed) defender Dallas would be walking away from seems not worth it. Jerry Jones hinted at as much during the predraft presser so unless a move up came with a discount, it should be out of consideration.
Potential Mistake No. 2
(AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
With so much top notch talent available, the Cowboys cannot sit at No. 10 and select one of the players with high grades on tape, but with questionable medicals. That means that, at No. 10, they cannot take Caleb Farley the cornerback from Virginia Tech nor can they take Miami edge rusher Jaelan Phillips. Farley missed a year and has had multiple back surgeries. Backs don't really get better, and though the stories of what he played through in 2019 are remarkable and speak to his dedication and desire, it's too big of a risk despite doctors saying he'll be good to go for the regular season. While Farley could easily be the most talented corner of the group, the decision should be about the floor of the prospect and his injury risk means his floor is getting limited snaps from him over a rookie contract, and questions about a second one. As for Phillips, he medically retired due to a litany of concussions suffered at UCLA, and those aren't the only medical issues he's had. Later in the first round? That makes a bit of more sense. He fits even better as a second-round pick. Despite him clearly being the most talented edge rusher in the draft, the Cowboys are going to need to look elsewhere if they stick at No. 10.
Potential Mistake No. 3
(AP Photo/Barry Reeger)
Here's why linebackers don't matter. They are heavily dependent on the play around them, more so than any other position on the defense. Teams can have top-flight defenses without great-to-elite linebacker play, that can't be said for any of the other position groups. The NFL does a hideous job of identifying the top linebacker prospects. Have some been found in the top 10? Certainly, but it's a position with a horrible hit rate. As for Parsons specifically, he has limited experience at the position and he took a year off which makes it even harder to gauge his progress. He's a physical beast with insane athleticism, but he's so green with linebacker responsibilities, he doesn't really know how to hone those abilities for the position and is more than a bit of a freelancer. Can he develop into a monster? Certainly. Will it be fast enough to be worth the No. 10 overall pick in comparison to a stud elsewhere and one of the other qualified linebackers later on? Not likely.
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