Stanley Cup contender tiers: Bruins lead the way, but Oilers, Avs aren't far behind
The long, arduous march to the Stanley Cup Finals is about to begin, and some challengers are better equipped for the task than others.
The NHL regular season has come to a close and now the battle for the Stanley Cup is ready to begin.
In order to take stock of this year's combatants we've divided them into tiers based on our impression of their chances of winning a title. There's some inherent subjectivity here, but there is no concerted effort to single out your favorite team and disrespect them.
Tier 1: The record setters
The Stanley Cup playoffs are more unpredictable than many other sports, and the Bruins are far from invincible, but this club deserves a tier of its own.
FiveThirtyEight gives the Bruins a 37% chance of hoisting the Cup, which is an astounding number for any individual team. It seems warranted, though, for a team with a goals-for percentage of 63.4% at 5-on-5.
Yes, this team is a PDO monster, but that's largely due to the unbelievable goaltending of Linus Ullmark — a Vezina favorite with a save percentage of .920 or better in 15 of his last 17 games and outstanding season-long numbers.
The wheels don't seem likely to fall of for the veteran Swede, and if he stays as locked in as he's been this year, Boston will be incredibly hard to beat.
Tier 2: Star power and analytics darlings
This group is a combination of star-studded squads and those possessing underlying numbers that seem likely to portend significant playoff success.
This ranking is undoubtedly giving Colorado more credit than it deserves solely based on the 2022-23 regular season.
That seems reasonable considering the injury issues this team suffered through. We also saw this group win it all last year.
You could nitpick the bottom of the roster or Alexandar Georgiev's lack of playoff chops, but the Avs are the favorites in the Western Conference until further notice — even with Gabriel Landeskog unable to return for the postseason.
We're absolutely sold on the Oilers as true Cup contenders, thanks in large part to revamped defense that should give Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and the lads up front enough room for error to do their thing.
Stuart Skinner is a question mark in net, but he's given Edmonton every reason to believe in him so far.
This team is also finishing the season on absolute heater, going 18-2-1 since March 1.
Carolina's ability to dominate the puck possession game and allow fewer shots than any team in the NHL makes them extremely dangerous. The Hurricanes rank first in the league in expected goals at 5-on-5 at nearly 60 percent.
This group has won at least one playoff round in four consecutive seasons thanks in large part to its ability to control the game. As usual, the question is whether a lack of elite finishers will hold them back.
The Devils have come extremely far in a short period of time, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't be taken seriously.
Jack Hughes has arrived as a superstar, Nico Hischier gives them another blue-chip center, and the addition of Timo Meier lends New Jersey even more offensive punch.
Like the Hurricanes, this team is also an analytics darling ranking behind only Carolina in expected goals at 5-on-5 while ranking in the top-three in both shot share and goal share.
They are one of many teams on this list with a goaltender who's unproven in the NHL playoffs, but outside of that it's tough to poke holes in this squad.
6. Dallas Stars
Dallas has a number of the hallmarks of a sneaky-strong Cup contender. The Stars have excellent goaltending plus a tantalizing mix of young guns and veteran experience up front — and a true No. 1 defenseman in Miro Heiskanen, who's seen his offensive output explode this year.
The Stars have lived up to their talent during the season, too, boasting the best goal differential in the Western Conference (+67). The possession metrics here are more good than great, but that's less an issue for a club with elite special teams units.
Dallas ranked in the top five on both the power play and the penalty kill during the regular season.
Tier 3: Not underdogs, not favorites
If one of these teams won the Cup no one would be shocked, but each of them would have to pull a few upsets to get the job done.
7. Toronto Maple Leafs
If you believe the Maple Leafs are truly cursed you could put them 16th on this list, and it is awfully difficult to envision them beating the Lightning then the Bruins (assuming Boston tops the Florida Panthers).
That doesn’t mean Toronto doesn’t deserve some credit for another excellent season — and a solid haul of deadline additions headlined by 2019 Conn Smythe winner Ryan O’Reilly. This isn’t the most explosive edition of the Maple Leafs in the Auston Matthews era, but it’s one of the most defensively sound, ranking seventh in the NHL in both shot and goal suppression.
If goaltender Igor Shesterkin had repeated his remarkable 2021-22 season, the Rangers would be much further up this list.
Unfortunately for New York, he's been merely human this year, which makes it harder for a team with middling possession metrics to win it all.
If he catches fire, this squad could be truly dangerous, though. The Rangers' top two lines are extremely potent and the additions of Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko give New York an abundance of firepower.
A defense corps headlined by Adam Fox is nothing to sneeze at, either.
There’s a decent chance that putting the Lightning this low will end up as a ridiculous choice after they dispatch the Maple Leafs for the second consecutive season.
Still there’s only so much credit this team can get for its past accomplishments. This year Tampa Bay had just 98 points to its name and a goal differential (+29) closer to the wild-card Panthers (+17) than its first-round opponent (+57). Add in an injury to key deadline addition Tanner Jeannot, and this group just doesn’t look as scary as it normally does.
That is relative, though. The Lightning are still at least moderately scary.
This feels a little bit low for a team with 111 points that will be boosted by the return or Mark Stone, but the Golden Knights aren't as convincing as some of the other top teams in the NHL.
Vegas ranks outside the top 10 in the NHL in both scoring and suppressing goals, leading to a differential (+43) that is ninth among playoff teams. Their possession metrics are also middling as they concede more shot attempts and scoring chances than they produce at 5-on-5.
We like the Golden Knights' forward depth, and the success they've had this season can't be dismissed outright — but this group's underlying numbers don't impresses, and they're missing top goaltender Logan Thompson.
Tier 4: Underdogs
Cinderella stories can happen in the NHL, but this trio would need plenty of breaks to bring home a championship.
11. Seattle Kraken
The Kraken are a fantastic story, but they don’t seem to have the top-end talent to fuel a deep run. That said, Seattle has admirable depth, some of the best possession metrics in the NHL, and nothing to lose.
Only the Bruins have a better 5-on-5 goal share, and the Kraken have outshot their opponents by 7.4 shots per game since March 1. You could make a case for this squad, but a Stanley Cup is a lot to ask from this unproven group.
12. Minnesota Wild
Minnesota has flown under the radar for most of the season neither exceeding expectations or falling short of them.
It’s possible that Filip Gustavsson has some playoff magic in him, and Kirill Kaprizov is as dangerous as ever, but there’s a lack of wow factor here — compounded by the absence of Joel Eriksson Ek.
13. Florida Panthers
Matthew Tkachuk has played like a superstar this season, the team’s overall talent level is strong, and Alex Lyon has provided stability in the crease recently.
Even so, it doesn’t seem wise to get too caught up in this team’s strong finish. There’s a reason this group produced only 92 points on the season and was called soft by Keith Tkachuk in late March.
Many of their issues were between the pipes, but as well as Lyon is playing, he’s a 30-year-old journeyman who never topped 11 games in five NHL campaigns before 2022-23.
Despite the Kings' solid point total, there just aren't many compelling reasons to believe in this team.
An impressive power play has helped keep this offense afloat, but this group is built on depth scoring and possession competence rather than game-breaking skill. Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty are still impact players, but it would be impossible to claim they haven't seen better days.
Goaltending has been an issue all year and the duo of Joonas Korpisalo and Pheonix Copley doesn't inspire confidence. We'll keep them out of the lowest tier out of respect for their 104-point campaign, but a first-round date with the Oilers is likely to spell their doom.
Tier 5: It would take a miracle
In a literal sense one of these teams could win it all. Don't put your money on either.
15. Winnipeg Jets
Outside of Connor Hellebuyck’s work between the pipes, nothing about this team screams contender. Kyle Connor wasn’t able to replicate his remarkable 2021-22, the Mark Scheifele-Blake Wheeler combo isn’t nearly as effective as it used to be and the defense corps is just fine.
There have been more impressive iterations of essentially this same team in the past and it would be surprising to see this version be the one to break through. Winnipeg went 11-8-1 in its final 20 games with a +3 goal differential and feels like club treading water rather than a wild-card sleeper.
Like Winnipeg, the Islanders can claim the edge in net against most opponents thanks to the presence of Ilya Sorokin.
Outside of that they'll be hard pressed to keep up with the NHL's elite teams. Even after adding Bo Horvat during the season, this club is lacking blue-chip talent up front and on the blueline.
The Islanders are the only playoff team that scored fewer than three goals per game during the regular season, and they also gave up more shots than they put on goal. New York will go as far as Sorokin can drag them, which probably won't be far.
