The NFL’s Week 17 Overreaction Index: AFC playoff contenders edition
Week 17 is in the books and the playoff pairings are set. That gives us a chance to kick off Super Wild Card Weekend (note, are we indeed contractually obligated to call it that?) here at Touchdown Wire.
In our weekly Overreaction Index pieces we’ll take some initial looks at all 14 of the playoff contenders. Here is a look at the AFC teams striving for a trip to Tampa Bay. Which of these seven is going to head to Florida in February?
(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
The Indianapolis Colts, thanks to a win in the season finale and a loss from the Miami Dolphins, are headed to the postseason. But can they stick around? They do have a few things working for them. Their defense is good enough to slow down some of the better offenses they’ll potentially see over the next few weeks. Julian Blackmon has been a revelation at the safety spot and Kenny Moore is one of the NFL’s best slot defenders. On offense, Jonathan Taylor has emerged as the running back Indianapolis hoped they were getting and has been impressive in pass protection as well. T.Y. Hilton is still a threat in the downfield passing game and Frank Reich can still dial up some creative ways to attack in the passing game. That, coupled with the rest of the conference, will be enough. The Indianapolis Colts are heading to the Super Bowl. Verdict: Big overreaction. A few weeks ago I would have lumped the Indianapolis Colts in with the rest of the contenders. Heck early last Sunday I would have moved them closer to the top. But a breakdown in the second half against Pittsburgh is a sign of what could befall them in the playoffs. Philip Rivers has been good at times, and bad at others. Earlier in the season there were even rumblings that the Colts should make a move to Jacoby Brissett. Now they get news that Anthony Castonzo is out for the season. Plus, when you look at what they’ve done in bigger games, losses to the Titans and that loss to the Steelers do stand out. Hard to trust this team given the other teams in the dance with them.
(Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports)
Kevin Stefanski is going to get his fair share of Coach of the Year votes for what he has done this season in Cleveland. He inherited a team that looked to be heading in the wrong direction and turned things around almost overnight, getting the Browns into the playoffs. He has worked wonders with Baker Mayfield, perhaps altering his career arc in the process. Beyond that, Cleveland has the kind of pieces that tend to cause problems in the post-season for opponents: A stout running game. A defense that can get after the passer led by Myles Garrett. An offensive philosophy that can wear down the opposition. We saw it with the Tennessee Titans last year, and we are going to see it this season from the Browns. Believe it Dawgpound, the Cleveland Browns are heading to the Super Bowl. Verdict: Big overreaction. Like perhaps many of you, I wanted to believe in the Browns. But recent form has me rethinking that belief. Yes, Cleveland has been hampered by a COVID situation but losing to the New York Jets in a pivotal game - even with the absences they had on both sides of the football - is tough to understand. Even this week playing a Pittsburgh Steelers squad resting some key players, the Browns managed just a two-point win in a must-win atmosphere. Perhaps they get everyone back and make a deep run but until that happens, I just cannot buy in.
(Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports)
Could the Baltimore Ravens have figured things out just in time? After limping to three-straight losses when November gave way to December, the Ravens have won five-straight games to finish the season strong and fight back into the playoffs. Along the way their offense seems to have come together, with the Ravens putting 34 points on the board against the Dallas Cowboys and 47 points on the Cleveland Browns in perhaps the “Game of the Year.” Then in Week 17 you saw the offense become a bit more aggressive downfield, which is a good sign for them. Last year the Ravens entered the playoffs as the top-seed in the conference and were one-and-done. That changes this year. The Baltimore Ravens are headed to the Super Bowl. Verdict: Medium overreaction. Despite their strong finish you have to give it some context. The only team they beat down the stretch with a winning record was the Cleveland Browns. Beyond that, when you watch the Ravens offense you still see signs that not everything is quite right. Lamar Jackson remains an incredible, dynamic quarterback and is still must-watch each week, but the passing game seems off. Prior to Week 17 Jackson seemed reluctant to take some chances down the field Now he did take some shots on Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals, but if that cautious nature reappears in the playoffs, it is going to hold Baltimore back in the postseason.
Tennessee Titans
(Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports)
The Tennessee Titans crashed the AFC playoffs a season ago, knocking off the New England Patriots and then the Baltimore Ravens en route to a surprise appearance in the AFC Championship Game. Could they reach the summit this season? The Titans have some of the ingredients back to make another such run and perhaps get over that final hurdle. Derrick Henry remains a force in the running game and on Sunday became just the eighth running back in league history to eclipse 2,000 yards in a season. Ryan Tannehill is one of the NFL’s most efficient passers and has put up elite numbers yet again, and the emergency of Corey Davis alongside A.J. Brown has given the passing game another boost. They’ll reach that summit. The Tennessee Titans are going to Tampa. Verdict: Medium overreaction. You’ll notice that in that writeup I said nothing about the defense. Because if there is a glaring issue on the Titans right now, it is that defense. It was not too long ago that the Cleveland Browns hung 41 on them, but just look at some of their scores down the stretch. They gave up 26 points to the Colts in a win, the 41 points to Cleveland, 25 points to Detroit in a win and another 40-burger to the Packers in Week 16. They gave up 35 against Houston in the finale. Unless the path breaks exactly right for them the Titans will see Buffalo and/or Kansas City along the way. That does not bode well...
Pittsburgh Steelers
(Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)
A few weeks ago the Pittsburgh Steelers were considered anything but true contenders in the AFC. They had lost three-straight games, the offense looked inept, and even the defense was scuffling a bit. That all changed in Week 16. The Steelers roared back in a comeback victory over the Indianapolis Colts, clinching the AFC North and putting Mike Tomlin in a position to rest his starters in the season finale. It might be recency bias, it might be their defense, it might be the fact that Ben Roethlisberger showed us something in that comeback, but perhaps we wrote the obituary for the Steelers a few weeks too early. The Pittsburgh Steelers are your eventual AFC Champions. Verdict: Medium overreaction. While all of that might be true, it is hard to view the Steelers as the best team in the conference given what we have seen from the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs this season. The questions about Roethlisberger and the passing game remain, and while the defense is solid the Steelers are going to be facing better offenses in the playoffs than what they saw from Cincinnati and Washington. They’ll need to show us more in the postseason.
Kansas City Chiefs
(AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
They are the defending Super Bowl Champions. They have the best record in all of football. The weapons on the offensive side of the football are plenty. They will enjoy home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They have Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy dreaming up exotic ways to attack you with all of those weapons. Their starters will be rested for the post-season. They have Patrick Mahomes. The other six playoff teams in the AFC do not. Face it, the Kansas City Chiefs are heading back to the Super Bowl. Verdict: Minimal overreaction. Despite all of the above, it is hard to ignore that nagging thought in the back of my mind: The Chiefs have not played well down the stretch. And another AFC contender has played better football during the same time. Yes, the Chiefs beat the Buffalo Bills earlier this season, but Super Bowls are not determined in the fall. They are won in the winter. Maybe Kansas City is going to revert to their great form from earlier in the year during the playoffs. They remain so dangerous on the offensive side of the football. Their defense is good enough to win a championship. Maybe they have lulled us into this false sense of impending failure. Or maybe it is very hard to repeat.
Buffalo Bills
(Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports)
Their defense is playing better. Josh Allen is an MVP candidate. Stefon Diggs is perhaps the best acquisition of the past off-season, and the Buffalo Bills have won the AFC East for the first time in 25 years. That alone might make them favorites in the AFC, but there is more. The Bills might be playing the best all-around football of any team in the NFL right now. If you look around the AFC landscape, every other team has shown a weakness or two down the stretch, including the Kansas City Chiefs. Buffalo, however, has kept rolling since mid-season. Circle the wagons friends and set a course for Florida. The Buffalo Bills are headed to the Super Bowl. Verdict: No overreaction. Heading into 2020 the biggest question facing the Buffalo Bills was quarterback Josh Allen. Could he be good enough for this team, given the weapons around him and what Buffalo has assembled on the defensive side of the football. Forget “good enough,” Allen is a certified MVP candidate. His progression from “fun QB to watch” to guy who makes you mutter “this freakin’ guy'' in astonishment has been incredible. If I’m placing a bet right now, the chip is landing on the Bills.
