Why Alabama will win the National Championship Game
The first rematch in BCS and College Football Playoff history is here. After the seasons that Alabama and Clemson have had plus the key figures from Alabama’s 45-40 win in 2016 who will play on Monday night, we can make a convincing case for each team to raise the national championship trophy. Here’s why we think Alabama will win along with insight from Ben Jones of Alabama Rivals site TideSports.com. For our case for Clemson, click here.
– Points off turnovers. Alabama’s defense is not only the best in the country in terms of yards allowed, it also has an incredible propensity to turn opponents’ turnovers into touchdowns. Linebacker Ryan Anderson’s interception return of Washington quarterback Jake Browning was the 15th defensive or special teams touchdown Alabama has scored this season. No. 2 Ohio State has seven defensive touchdowns and no one else has more than five.
“We feel like we can really change the game by getting turnovers and scoring on them,” defensive lineman Jonathan Allen said.
Defensive back Eddie Jackson, who has missed the past six games because of a season-ending injury suffered vs. Texas A&M, has three touchdowns himself. That’s as much or more than 109 FBS teams, including Clemson (3).
Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson’s stats stack up with most everyone else in the country. But the high number of passes he’s thrown (523) has led to a lot of interceptions. Watson’s 17 interceptions — including two vs. Ohio State — put him second in the country to Purdue’s David Blough. There could be an interception or two out there waiting for the Tide defense.
– Clemson has a tough task ahead to scheme an effective running game against an Alabama defensive front that may be better than it was last year. Allen’s monstrous season has been a huge part of that along with linebackers Reuben Foster and Tim Williams and others.
Just two opponents have rushed for over 100 yards vs. Alabama in 2016. The most effective team was Ole Miss, which averaged a whopping 3.2 yards a carry. It took the Rebels 33 carries to log just 106 yards.
Clemson has had under 100 rushing yards in a game just once this season. And it — perhaps not coincidentally — came in the team’s loss to Pitt. Oh, and Alabama’s defensive front should be fresher too. Coach Nick Saban said Sunday that he felt his team played a bit tired in 2016.
“Last year it was a little bit of a tough management with the number of time you had between the season and the first playoff game and then the time we had from the playoff game, and I thought our team was a little bit tired,” Saban said. “We played a little bit tired in the game last year, didn’t seem like we had the juice. Maybe we practiced a little bit too much.”
A week ago, Alabama stifled a Washington team that ran the ball well all season and threw the ball efficiently with Browning. If it can force the Clemson offense to be one-dimensional, The Tigers may be in trouble.
TideSports.com’s take: “Washington was a really, really good offense and they could barely get the ball past midfield against Alabama. There was a two-quarter period where they didn’t move the ball past midfield. They just were backed up and couldn’t do anything. They were running into a wall the entire time. If you think that Alabama’s defense can do something like that again, then you think that Alabama can score enough points to win this game.”
– Quarterback Jalen Hurts brings a rushing dynamic to the field that Alabama didn’t have at quarterback in 2015. While Derrick Henry had over 150 yards rushing in Alabama’s win last season, Clemson kept him in check save for a 50-yard run. The Tigers were able to focus on containing Henry in the run game because quarterback Jake Coker wasn’t the running threat that Hurts is.
While Hurts may not go downfield nearly as often as Coker did last year, his presence allows Alabama to call more run-pass options and puts pressure on a Clemson defense that has been prone to giving up big plays. If Clemson doesn’t play with the same discipline it showed vs. Ohio State, Hurts could have a big game on the ground.
“Well, it’s like any offense that they have a dual threat quarterback,” Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables said. “When things break down, he’s the trump card. Those guys are hard to account for and they stress you out in both your coverage package and your pressure package and what you’re doing up front.
“You really have to account for him like it’s option football. And then, at the same time, he’s a guy that can improvise and buy time. So in the back end [of the Clemson defense], they’re going to have to play — they have to be prepared to cover for a while.”
– By now you know the story behind Steve Sarkisian’s elevation to offensive coordinator at Alabama. And while there are some risks to making a coaching change in the lead up to the national title game, it can also be beneficial to Alabama too. Don’t discount the Tide trying a couple things that Clemson hasn’t seen on any Alabama film so far, especially given its poor passing performance against Washington.
Saban made a couple seemingly risky decisions in last year’s title game; remember the onside kick? He and Sarkisian may have a couple of secrets to unveil if Clemson gives them specific defensive looks.
“I think so many times with [Saban], we give him too much of a conservative approach at times,” Sarkisian said. “I don’t, but I think sometimes the perception of him is that.
“Actually, he really is an aggressive mannered coach. He’ll do things aggressively. He likes to play the game aggressively.”
TideSports.com’s take: “I don’t think it helps Alabama necessarily that Lane Kiffin is gone. Some people might think that it’s a net gain for them. Overall I think when you look at Lane Kiffin over the last three years and the offenses he’s run, it’s hard to say that it helps Alabama that he’s gone. If you want to be confident in Alabama, it’s real easy to look at the Washington game and say that’s an aberration. This is a team that’s averaged 40 points a game this year this year and the offense has averaged 33 points a game. Even against some really good defenses they’ve been able to score.”
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Nick Bromberg is the assistant editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
