Week 6 fantasy preview: What to expect from Cam Newton?

Let’s preview this week’s NFL action by first focusing on the games that are expected to produce the most real and fantasy points before I go around the league to highlight the key players we should be watching and why.

[Week 6 rankings: Overall | FLEX | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | K]

Panthers at Saints (O/U: 53): The big story here is what will Cam Newton ($40) be going forward? Will the concussion cut the rushing volume and really hamper his value by making him more passing-dependent because he has a poor cast of receivers other than the ethereal Greg Olsen ($28). If Cam does run, he of course is more susceptible to another concussion given he just had one. So it’s lose-lose, to me. Kelvin Benjamin ($32) is not reliable (eight catches last three games).

The Saints of course are at home and the Panthers pass defense is very shaky given their decision to let one of the game’s best corners leave. So expect a Drew Brees ($41) and Brandin Cooks ($28) explosion.

Chiefs at Raiders (O/U: 48.5): Derek Carr ($36) is upside-down in TD percentage and yards per pass attempt but he’s been consistent in being an outlier so we just may have to believe it. Tom Brady is an example of a quarterback who for most of his career consistently outperformed YPA expectations when it came to throwing TDs. The Raiders like to throw from in close — 12 passes and just seven runs inside the five. Carr has four of his TDs here. And Michael Crabtree ($30), sort of the poor-man’s modern-day Cris Carter, is the primary beneficiary.

The big story for the Chiefs is Jamaal Charles ($30), who says he’s 110 percent so I guess he’s the one guy better after a catastrophic injury. Okay, him and this guy. I root for Charles but a soon-to-be 30-year-old running back coming off his second reconstructed knee has to prove it and everyone seems to just expect it. A bad bet. Alex Smith ($37) is so bad that I have no faith Kansas City can exploit a Raiders defense that’s been terrible. Smith is ruining Jeremy Maclin ($28), not exactly surprising. But you have to use Maclin here.

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Bengals at Patriots (O/U: 47.5): I think this is a bad spot for A.J. Green ($34) owners as Bill Belichick is going to make sure Green doesn’t beat him. He rarely allows his team to get beat by the obvious guy. So then what is the Bengals’ Plan B? Gio Bernard ($18)? Come on.

New England is a matchup nightmare with the two tight ends now, a set teams throw much better out of historically. Teams rarely have two tight ends who can actually be receiving weapons, so this is mostly a matchup issue in getting the extra defensive back off of the field. I never understood why Martellus Bennett ($18) was outside of the top 12 in most draft rankings. I’m not saying he’s going to hold as the second-best one going forward with Rob Gronkowski back, but he will be top five. I am worried about ($25) Julian Edelman’s WR2 viability in PPR. He needs a show-me week.

Week 6 notes

-The Giants have to do something different with Odell Beckham Jr. ($33). I’d put him in the slot, where it’s much easier to operate than outside the numbers. The passer rating to slot targets is about 12 percent higher than overall and the slot receivers aren’t the best receivers on the team. So what would happen if you put your best receiver in the slot? Seems like a no brainer but only 7 percent of Beckham’s targets are from the slot vs. 94 percent for Sterling Shepard ($23). Scott Pianowski and I also talked at length about Ben McAdoo and the Giants offense on our Breakfast Table Podcast.

-DeAngelo Williams ($13) is a zero now in the Steelers offense with just one touch last week. But you can’t cut him because Le’Veon Bell ($38) is such a high injury risk. I know his owners don’t want to hear it but his last two seasons ended prematurely with major knee injuries.

-Cameron Meredith ($14, 9 catches, 130 yards last week) is not starting officially according to the depth chart but had 95.5 percent of snaps. Eddie Royal ($19) had 56.1 percent. I’d post some combine stuff but with receivers, there is no correlation between any combine measurable and professional success. This doesn’t mean there is not a minimum level for viability, of course.

-We finally get to see Colin Kaepernick ($20) in a Chip Kelly offense but Kelly was minimizing expectations by saying that Kaepernick, who is lighter and now a vegan, is not the player he was in 2013. Even his arm strength reportedly has declined. But I’m still keeping an open mind. Maybe Chip is doing the soft-sell.

-LeSean McCoy ($35) is third best with 23.5 percent missed or broken tackles on his 85 carries. (Eddie Lacy is at 25.9 percent but has just 54 totes and David Johnson is at 24.2 percent).

-Jordan Matthews ($31) has just 30 targets. And even though this leads the team, it’s very disappointing. He’s at nine yards per target, too, which is good and no other Philly WR is close. He’s a hold but I need to see a 10-target game to feel good about him as a WR2 going forward. His slot percentage is also way down but still very good at 60 percent of targets.

-I love Tevin Coleman ($18) in the slot. He’s a big play receiver even though he’s a running back. He’s averaging an absurd 18.4 yards on 17 catches and an even more ridiculous 15 yards on 21 targets. The last RB to average more yards per catch on at least 15 receptions was Curtis Dickey for the Colts in 1983. I think Coleman can be the new Lenny Moore. Linebackers can’t cover him in space.

-Christine Michael ($24) is 26th of 38 in percentage of runs that have a missed or broken tackle. If you buy this stat, and why shouldn’t you, Michael may be overrated as a pure talent. But his touch floor makes him a valuable fantasy asset.

-I’d sell Randall Cobb ($17) if I could and I’d buy Lacy ($21), whose ankle injury doesn’t seem serious.

-I had a chance to buy Lamar Miller ($28) at a discount and it wasn’t steep enough so I passed. I have zero interest at anything approaching August ADP.

-Pencil in David Johnson ($38) for 100 receiving yards against the Jets, who just can’t cover running backs. And Carson Palmer ($30) and the Cardinals should put up 40 points vs. New York.