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Week 11 Start/Sit: Hill, yeah, and Hill, no

Brandon Funston
Tyreek, not Jeremy, is the Hill you should be looking for in Week 11. (Getty)
Tyreek, not Jeremy, is the Hill you should be looking for in Week 11. (Getty)

As we head into Week 11 of the 2016 NFL season, here are 12 players to give extra consideration to when filling out your lineups – six that are looking better than usual, and a half dozen that are looking worse:

(Note: Atlanta, Denver, San Diego and the New York Jets are on bye in Week 11)

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STARTS

QB – Colin Kaepernick, SF ($27) – Have legs, will travel in fantasy football. Such is the case for Kaepernick, whose 228 rushing yards over four starts has helped propel him to a No. 7 ranking among the QB position in fantasy points per game (minimum four starts). In fact, his rushing yards in that four-game span is one more than that of Rams running backs Todd Gurley (227 rush yards in past four games). Facing New England’s soft defensive front, one that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game to the QB position, Kaepernick could push 75-plus rushing yards, and he’ll likely have ample garbage time to pad his passing numbers as well. For those Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers owners, Kaepernick could be a top 10-level replacement.

RB – Thomas Rawls, Sea ($14) – Seattle head coach Pete Carroll said that Rawls will “play considerably” this week, his first game active since suffering a fractured fibula in Week 2. What “considerably” means is open to interpretation, obviously, but Seattle generally errs on the side of caution when it comes to bringing players back from injury, and that appears to be the case with Rawls, who drew praise from Carroll for how he practiced last week in advance of the New England game. Facing a Philly defense that allows a healthy 4.3 YPC, look for a now healthy Rawls to split duties with C.J. Prosise, handling in the neighborhood of a dozen or more carries, including any goal line work. For a team that has generated the 11th-most goal line rush attempts at the RB position, I expect Rawls to splash pay dirt to go with 50-60 rushing yards against the Eagles.

RB – Rob Kelley, Was ($17) – “Fat Rob” definitely deserves more love, as he’s still only the 27th-most started RB this week in Yahoo leagues, and he’s a mere $17 in Yahoo DFS. That’s a surprise considering he’s averaging 21.5 carries and 92 rushing yards in his past two games as Washington’s leading man in the backfield. His matchup this week against Green Bay might, on paper, appear to be a difficult one. But after starting the season as a completely lock-down run defense, the Packers have softened up like Brie cheese of late, allowing four running backs to reach at least 17 fantasy points over their past five games. With another heavy workload coming behind one of the better run blocking offensive lines in the league, Kelley has another good shot at 80-plus yards and a TD on Sunday.

WR – Eli Rogers, Pit ($15) – The Steelers are dealing with a myriad of injuries in their receiving corps. Receivers Markus Wheaton (shoulder) and Darius Heyward-Bey (foot) are expected to sit (again) this week against the Browns, while Sammie Coates is looking like he’ll play, albeit with two broken fingers. With Browns top corner Joe Haden likely to be focusing much of his attention on Antonio Brown, there should be a huge opportunity for Rogers to step up against the weaker elements of a Cleveland secondary that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the WR position. Rogers is in a great position to reach double digit fantasy points for the third straight game.

WR – Tyreek Hill, KC ($18) – Hill has emerged as a threat in the KC passing game over the past month, averaging 74.8 yards from scrimmage (including 15.8 rush YPG) in that four-game span. With fellow Chiefs wideout Jeremy Maclin out last week with a groin injury, Hill received a season-high 13 targets, hauling in 10 of them for 89 yards. Maclin has yet to practice this week and is trending towards another DNP, which should keep the Chiefs’ speedy rookie in the line of fire against a Tampa Bay defense that allows the second-most fantasy points per game to the WR position.

TE – Eric Ebron, Det ($16) – Ebron is averaging 7 catches and 85.5 receiving yards in his past two games, yet he’s still just the 15th-most started TE in Yahoo leagues headed into Week 11. Ebron’s facing a Jacksonville defense that might be giving some owners pause since it has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position in ’16. But the Jags have been more generous of late, giving up a combined 203 yards and two touchdowns to the position over their past three games. In this pass happy Detroit offense, Ebron offers the kind of upside that makes him TE1 worthy.

[Week 11 rankings: Overall | FLEX | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | K]

SITS

QB – Derek Carr, Oak ($31) – Carr started the season on a roll, clocking in as the No. 8 QB in fantasy points per game through the first five weeks of the season. But over the past five weeks, he ranks as just the No. 19 QB. And his Week 11 matchup (Houston) doesn’t bode well for getting out of his recent fantasy funk, as the Texans allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the QB position. Only Andrew Luck, who finished as the No. 9 fantasy QB in Week 6, has reached QB1 status against the Texans this season. You’d best keep your Carr in the garage this weekend.

RB – Jeremy Hill, Cin ($20) – Hill has scored a TD in three straight games, but his goal line efforts have been his saving grace in fantasy, as he’s averaged 3.8 yards per carry or less in seven of nine contests and has finished with less than 50 rushing yards five times. Facing a rested Buffalo defense that has limited New England and Seattle running backs to a combined 28 carries for 68 rushing yards (2.4 YPC) in its past two games, and welcomes two-time Pro Bowl DT Marcel Dareus back this week, Hill is looking like a very risky proposition.

RB –James Starks, GB ($14) – Starks is cheap enough in DFS, but in Yahoo leagues he’s 22nd in RB Start% this week, which is showing a lot of faith in the leader of the NFL’s least productive fantasy backfield. Starks returned from a knee injury last week to tally 10 touches, 44 total yards and a fantasy-saving receiving TD against the Titans. This week he’ll face a Washington defense that has allowed the third-fewest yards from scrimmage to the RB position since Week 5. The ‘Skins also haven’t allowed a TD reception to a RB this season, which doesn’t bode well for Starks, who has scored more times through the air (4) than he has on the ground (2) over his past 30 regular-season games.

WR – Jordan Matthews, Phi ($18) – Matthews ranks just 39th among receivers in fantasy PPG since Week 2, he’s questionable with a back injury and he’s facing the sixth-best defense in fantasy (Seattle) vs. the WR position. Despite all these negatives, Matthews still ranks 19th this week in Start% at the WR position. The odds of winning on a Week 11 Matthews dice roll are pretty slim.

WR – Rishard Matthews, Ten ($21) – Another Matthews to be concerned about this week, Rishard has been a TD machine of late, reaching painted grass six times in his past six games. But he’s doing it in a manner that suggests his pay dirt proclivity is not sustainable. During this six-game run, Matthews is averaging a modest 5.5 targets, 4.0 catches and 50.5 yards. And he’s cashed in on just about every red zone opportunity that has come his way, turning six RZ targets into five touchdowns. This week, Matthews will face a Colts defense that has allowed just eight WR touchdowns in their nine games, including holding Matthews to a meager 4/37/0 line in Week 7, the only game during Matthews’ six-game scoring binge in which he didn’t find the end zone.

TE – Cameron Brate, TB ($16) – Last week, I warned you that TE Greg Olsen could be in trouble against Kansas City, and that proved to be the case. This week, it’s Brate that’s in trouble, as he heads to Kansas City. Brate has scored 8-plus fantasy points in three straight games, thanks to a TD in each of those contests. The Chiefs, though, have allowed just one tight end TD this season, and no TE has reached 8 fantasy points against them. Kansas City is also riding a streak in which it has not allowed a double-digit fantasy scorer at the TE position over its past 35 regular-season games.