Week 10 Fantasy Over/Under: Is another Dez disaster in the forecast?
Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don’t, and you’re painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here’s our view on six intriguing over/unders for Week 10.
Donning the DFS cap, what commodity is terribly UNDERVALUED in Week 10?
Dalton – KAPRI BIBBS ($10). That price is the minimum, and Bibbs should approach even snaps with Devontae Booker this week against a Saints defense that’s allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season. I have Bibbs as a top-20 RB this week, so he’s extremely undervalued at this price.
Liz – DARREN SPROLES ($18). Ryan Mathews may be getting the goal line, but Darren Sproles is getting the touches. Like it or not, the 33-year-old pinball is Philly’s No. 1 RB. His chances of producing are good in Week 10, as he’ll face a Falcons squad that has given up the 7th most receiving yards to RBs over the past 4 weeks. FF: 56 rushing yards, plus 6 catches for 49 receiving yards
Brad – KAPRI BIBBS ($10). I reached out to a couple Broncos insiders this week inquiring about the tightening RB timeshare. The consensus: Devontae Booker would head up a 60-40 split this week with Bibbs netting between 11-13 touches. If the case, he’s an extraordinary value. The Saints are giving up 4.5 yards per carry, 155.3 total yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game to RBs. A final output in the 60-65 total yards, one-TD range is certainly reachable.
Conversely, what DFS option is the most OVERVALUED in Week 10?
Liz – RANDALL COBB ($25). Yes, he’s scored in three straight weeks, but his target share has been around 25 percent for the whole of the season. Last week he was targeted just two times. Plus, he’s been dealing with a hamstring issue. I’d rather have Davante Adams ($22), who’s seeing more snaps and a similar number of high-value targets in the red area of the field.
Brad – TY MONTGOMERY ($22). Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams and now James Starks … How exactly will the hybrid earn enough touches to justify his price? Though the matchup isn’t overly intimidating, I believe this is the week he takes a backseat. Topping 70 combine yards could be a stretch.
Scott – CHRISTINE MICHAEL ($23) is starting to get marginalized in the Seattle offense, and we know they can’t block anyone, either. What we saw from the Seahawks last week could be the shape of the offense to come. Even in seasonal, I don’t really trust Michael.
DUMPSTER DIVING. With shovel in hand, what player under 25-percent started should fantasy owners insert into their lineups?
Brad – VERNON DAVIS. LA’s Lance Kendricks has received considerable love this week, and deservedly so, but the reborn Davis, even with Jordan Reed in uniform, has been a point of emphasis in Washington’s passing attack. Minnesota DBs Xavier Rhodes and Terrance Newman have been incredibly stingy this year, which means the TEs could be the offensive focus. The Vikes have given up a healthy 63.9 yards per game to the position.
Scott – LANCE KENDRICKS is merely *owned* in 16 percent of leagues, for some reason. He’s been a volume monster for three weeks and the Jets coverage is a mess — not just on the flanks, but also down the seam. Kendricks is also a DFS steal at $11.
Brandon – J.J. NELSON/JOHN BROWN. Time to get those Cardinals back in your lineups, folks. It’s 49er week, and that’s cause for celebration if you own Arizona starters (like Nelson and Brown). The 49ers have allowed a league-high 15 TD passes to the WR position. Nelson (now the starter ahead of Michael Floyd) and John Brown, both with blazing speed, could emerge from this one with long gainer touchdowns.
Down on Bourbon Street a true ‘Clash of the Titans’ is slated to take place between New Orleans’ prolific passing attack and Denver’s ‘No Fly Zone.’ Keeping in mind Philip Rivers is the only QB to log multiple vertical strikes versus the Broncos this year, Drew Brees passing TDs 1.5.
Scott – OVER. Sounds like Aqib Talib is out again, and New Orleans has too many weapons to contend with. Offense is more likely than defense to dictate outcomes in the NFL, especially on the Superdome racetrack.
Brandon – OVER. Brees at home is about as bankable as it gets in fantasy and, yes, even against Denver’s “No-Fly Zone” defense. Brees has finished as QB1 in each of his past nine home contests. With CB Aqib Talib still out for the Broncos, I’m betting Brees lands among the top 12 QBs once again, and he’ll have to throw for at least two scores to make that happen. I have him forecasted for something in the neighborhood of 285 yards and 2 TD passes.
Andy – OVER. Brees has thrown a ridiculous 35 touchdown passes over a dozen home games in the past two seasons, so he can have a sub-standard performance and still exceed this total. With no Talib in the mix for Denver, that defense is a bit more vulnerable. I’m not in the business of betting against Brees in the dome.
Since returning from injury, Dez Bryant has been a rollercoaster ride of inconsistency. Coming off a one-catch performance in Cleveland, receiving yards this week at Pittsburgh 84.5.
Brandon – OVER. Dallas game flow and offensive philosophy (run the ball down people’s throat, get a lead and let rookie QB Dak Prescott conservatively milk the clock to the finish line) have contributed to curbing Bryant’s fantasy value. When Dallas can impose its running will, Bryant is going to likely play a backseat role. This week, though, you get a Pittsburgh offense that can put points on the board, especially at home. I can see this being one of those rare occasions where the Cowboys will have to pump up the volume in the passing game and take some shots downfield (not just the short and intermediate routes that is Prescott’s wheel house). I think the game sets up well for Bryant to go over the number here.
Andy – OVER. Last week, facing a not-so-competitive opponent, Dallas delivered a run/pass ratio of 42 to 28. Game-flow didn’t favor a huge target total for Dez. This week, we can expect significantly more from Bryant. Don’t be surprised if he sees double-digit targets, producing 90-plus yards and at a spike.
Dalton – OVER. Despite the poor performance last week, Bryant looks healthy again, and the over/under in this game is 50 points. The Steelers have yielded the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, so Dallas will have to lean on the pass likely more than usual.
Kenneth Dixon played on a season-high 29 snaps last week versus the Steelers. In a contest only #TequilaThursday revelers could enjoy, total touches for the rookie versus Cleveland 12.5.
Andy – UNDER. Dixon clearly had more than a cameo role in the gameplan against Pittsburgh, but, unfortunately, he did next-to-nothin’ with his 11 touches (13 yards). Obviously this week’s matchup is much friendlier, but Dixon has given his team no reason to further increase his usage. Terrance West hasn’t been bad (4.0 YPC), though he also produced a dud against the Steelers. I think Dixon should see 9-12 touches against Cleveland, but I’m not going to assume another jump in workload.
Dalton – UNDER. He’s yet to see 10 carries in a game during his early career, although to be fair the script for Thursday night does suggest Baltimore could have many rushing attempts as double-digit favorites. Still, Terrance West remains the favorite for touches in the Ravens’ backfield.
Liz – OVER. The bad news is, Kenneth Dixon did a whole lot of nothing in Week 9, averaging just 1.4 YPC vs. the Steelers. The good news, however, is that he was a bigger part of the Ravens game plan, touching the ball just five fewer times than Terrance West. He’s got the Browns’ barely there defense on a short week. There’s no better shot of Dixon producing than on Thursday night.
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