Steelers-Chiefs preview: Slowing down Pittsburgh's Big 3 easier said than done
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC
STEELERS AT A GLANCE
Key Player: RB Le’Veon Bell. The man whose patient run style makes him, Bell says, the NFL’s version of Stephen Curry will be the workhorse in this game. He’s coming off a Steelers playoff record 167 rush yards against the Miami Dolphins, was a monster down the stretch of the regular season (before sitting out Week 17) and averaged a career-high 8.0 yards against the Chiefs in the first meeting this season.
Flat out: The Chiefs have to have a plan to bottle him up somehow. They didn’t have Justin Houston, who is expected to play, for the first meeting and are a much better run defense with him on the field. Bell could get 30 touches easily — he’s averaging 27 carries since mid-November — and doesn’t look tired.
The Chiefs will need to bring population to the ball defensively and play with discipline. Bell’s patience and lethal hesitation moves on screens, draws, traps, counters and power runs can drive a defense batty. That’s tougher to do now that instinctive linebacker Derrick Johnson is done for the season with an Achilles injury.
QB Ben Roethlisberger (foot) is banged up, and though he’s expected to be fine for this game, the Steelers have shifted more toward Bell being the focal point of the offense. Plus, Roethlisberger’s home-road splits over the past two seasons — more than 50 pass yards and nearly two TDs fewer per road game — are notable.
Why they’ll win: The Steelers are lethal on offense, but they also have played much better defense down the stretch. For the season, they rank 10th in points allowed and fourth in red-zone defense, which is a great turnaround considering they allowed 27 points or more four times in the first half of the season. In the past eight games, including last week, the Steelers have allowed 20 points or fewer five times.
This is not a Chiefs offense that consistently grinds out yards; they had middling ranks this season in yards per game and first downs and were third from the bottom in red-zone scoring percentage. In two of the past four games at Arrowhead Stadium, they’ve lost games by a 19-17 score against two non-playoff teams.
And, of course, with Bell, Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown — even if Chiefs corner Marcus Peters is in his hip pocket, or there’s safety help — the Steelers have quick-strike ability. Shall we talk about the 22-0 first quarter the last time these teams met? That was about as dominant a 15 minutes as we’ve seen from one playoff team against another this season.
Why they’ll lose: The Chiefs have matchup problems with tight end Travis Kelce, running back Spencer Ware and returner-receiver Tyreek Hill. That’s their version of the Big Three, and they can stretch the field in a lot of ways. Steelers cornerback Justin Gilbert was surprisingly effective against Kelce in the first matchup, helping hold him to five catches for 25 yards and a long grab of 9. But you can bet the Chiefs will try to get him going early.
Ware isn’t Bell, but he can run inside and out, be effective in “wildcat” type packages and catch the ball well. Hill has been the ultimate difference-maker this season with the best yards-to-snap ratio in the NFL and a monster on kick and punt returns. He played a mere 18 offensive snaps in the first meeting as he was still learning his responsibilities at the time. We think he has now.
Don’t forget, too, that the Chiefs are a big-play defense — especially with Houston on the field. Roethlisberger throws some balls up for grabs, and taking it away is what the Chiefs do better than almost anyone else.
Keep in mind: The Steelers were 4-3 against postseason teams this season, including last week’s playoff victory. The Chiefs were 4-2 against playoff teams. Alex Smith will be playing in his sixth postseason game, Roethlisberger his 19th. The two head coaches, Andy Reid and Mike Tomlin, have coached in Super Bowls and have a combined 34 games of playoff experience between them. This is a huge game in a loud stadium in what should be fun viewing. There’s a 60 percent chance of snow falling at some point on Sunday.
KANSAS CITY AT A GLANCE
Key Player: QB Alex Smith. There’s no question the Chiefs need a strong performance in this measuring-stick game for him. There’s no question Smith’s at a flashpoint in his career and the kind of quarterback people like to assume can’t win the big one. But he has raised his game in the playoffs in the past — 11 touchdowns to one interception — and has his best team as the starter since the 2011 San Francisco 49ers.
The Steelers turned up the heat last week defensively, and Smith can’t force the issue too much. Get the ball out quickly and into the hands of his playmakers, and he should be set up for success. The Chiefs typically win the field-position game with their defense and special teams, and Smith’s job will be to help finish drives with touchdowns and not field goals.
Smith has not been nearly the runner and scrambler this season as he has been in years past, and if the Steelers stick primarily to zone coverage it’s likely that won’t be a big factor here either. But he also can move around effectively within the pocket and escape the potent rush of James Harrison, Stephon Tuitt, Bud Dupree and others.
Why they’ll win: The Chiefs have a strong front and a terrific back end. They might not erase everything the Steelers do on offense, but they have the playmaking ability to change the game quickly. If Houston is healthy and the pass rush can pick things up, the Chiefs can harass Roethlisberger in what should be a loud environment.
The Steelers will try to minimize that effect by going to the quick game, but the Chiefs have faced hurry-up offenses before and have enough depth and savvy to handle that kind of tempo. Peters might not shadow Brown — they tend to play their sides — but the Chiefs can counter with help from All Pro safety Eric Berry, who is one of the best at what he does.
Even if it’s not a banner day for the Chiefs offense, they can win this game with big enough plays in all three phases.
Keep in mind: Reid has a career coaching mark of 16-2 with an extra week to prepare for an opponent, and there are few better coaches at creating game plans to eliminate an opponent’s strength. The Chiefs will have an advantage in that respect, even though many prominent Steelers rested in a pseudo-bye in Week 17 and are largely healthy — outside Roethlisberger’s foot — heading into this one.
OUTLOOK
The Week 4 matchup has little bearing on what happens in this game, as much has changed since then and the venue is different. But it’s a reminder how quickly the Steelers can strike. The Chiefs know they need to prevent playing from behind early, and the Steelers have more than just Bell and Brown to throw to — someone such as Eli Rogers could easily step up and make a back-breaking play to tilt the game.
The Steelers are one of the hottest teams in football, winners of eight in a row, but the Chiefs will be prepared for one of the biggest games at Arrowhead in years. Smith might not be on Roethlisberger’s level as a playmaker but has enough weapons around him to be an effective performer.
The Chiefs’ balance presents a real challenge for the Steelers, and we could see Hill affecting the game in a major way. Also, look for Jeremy Maclin to make a play or two after what has been a frustrating, injury-plagued season against a Steelers secondary that’s young and prone to a hiccup or two.
One hidden factor: Reid and Tomlin occasionally will make curious game-management decisions, so one or two key fourth-down decisions or clock-handling mixups could shift the tide at the end of the half or the game in a pressure situation.
Related NFL coverage on Yahoo Sports:
Podcast: Your complete NFL playoff preview
Subscribe to Grandstanding • iTunes • Stitcher • Soundcloud
– – – – – – –
Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at edholm@yahoo-inc.com or follow him on Twitter!
