Shuffle Up: Jay Ajayi, Circle of Trust
Shuffle Up season is here, my friends. Here’s the idea — how would we rank fantasy players if the season were starting right now?
A few caveats up front. The prices are unscientific in nature, merely used as a way to compare players within their position. I do not compare prices outside of position — a price of a quarterback is only meant to be considered within his positional class. I am generally far less expectant with injury-returning players, so don’t be surprised when I like them less than you do.
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Every Shuffle Up is done from scratch. I think it’s counterproductive to justify an old, dated list. I want my current opinions. I considered a modified PPR scoring system for the field players.
And of course, you’ll disagree with plenty on this list — that’s why we have a game in the first place.
I’ll do quarterbacks and wide receivers in the even weeks, running backs and tight ends for the odd weeks. You can figure out kickers and defenses on your own (keep streaming, streamers; those positions are rarely worth holding for extended periods, and matchups are critical in those streaming decisions).
Comments will follow later in the day. For now, here are your prices. I reserve the right to edit this list as the day goes along; win the debate, you might win the rank.
Have a strong disagreement, with a reason attached? Catch me on Twitter: @scott_pianowski.
Running Backs
$46 Ezekiel Elliott
$45 David Johnson
$45 LeVeon Bell
$42 Melvin Gordon
$41 DeMarco Murray
$40 Jay Ajayi
$38 LeSean McCoy
$31 Latavius Murray
$31 LeGarrette Blount
$31 Spencer Ware
$30 Devonta Freeman
$28 Jordan Howard
$25 Matt Forte
I’d holding onto Ajayi with two hands and you should be, too. It’s not that he’s untradable — anyone is tradable in the right context — but you better like the return. And about that rest of season schedule that some are concerned about? What’s the worry?
You did see the Niners in Week 12, right? Ajayi has already cut his teeth against Buffalo and the Jets. Arizona’s been good in fantasy points allowed, but the Cardinals are merely ninth in run defense DVOA — not an easy draw, but certainly not something I’d use to take me away from a good player. Offense controls outcomes more than defense in the NFL, and also consider how strong Miami’s offensive line has been this year. Barring injury, Ajayi should be a solid, set-and-forget RB1 the rest of the season.
$19 Frank Gore
$17 Jonathan Stewart
$17 Lamar Miller
$15 Theo Riddick
$16 Jeremy Hill
$15 Doug Martin
$14 Mark Ingram
$14 Devontae Booker
$14 Robert Kelley
$14 Todd Gurley
$13 C.J. Prosise
Not only is Kelley one of those “are we sure he’s good?” players, he’s also facing a terrible schedule for the rest of the season. Green Bay, Dallas, Arizona, Philadelphia and Carolina all slot 11th or better in run defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders . . . Because Prosise is holding the baton and Thomas Rawls is off an extended absence, I have to give Prosise the edge until Rawls definitively shows he’s back and ready for a heavy workload. Yes, the cut of Christine Michael does infer that Seattle feels pretty good about Rawls, but I’ve been impressed with Prosise’s tape against New England and New Orlenas . . . There’s nothing special about Hill, but he has a definitive role on an offense that could be sneaky-good now that Tyler Eifert is back. At least Hill will get opportunities to punch in the short touchdowns . . . May we all age as well as Frank Gore. He’s scored a touchdown in six of his nine starts, and he has the Indy backfield to himself. No. 2 running back Robert Turbin is stuck on 18 rushing attempts.
$12 Isaiah Crowell
$12 Rashad Jennings
$10 Ryan Mathews
$10 Carlos Hyde
$10 Thomas Rawls
$9 Giovani Bernard
$8 Terrance West
$7 Kenneth Dixon
$7 James Starks
$7 Tevin Coleman
$7 Bilal Powell
$6 Christine Michael
$5 Mike Gillislee
$5 Duke Johnson
$5 Darren Sproles
$5 Chris Ivory
$5 *Dion Lewis
$4 Tim Hightower
$3 Derrick Henry
$3 Matt Asiata
$3 Damien Williams
$3 James White
$3 Kapri Bibbs
Maybe Booker wasn’t that good all along (color me guilty of overrating him). He’s still stuck at 3.8 YPC and hasn’t broken a run longer than 20 yards all season. He’s been ordinary as a receiver, not bad, not great . . . Asiata is sixth in the league in goal-line opportunities, in part because he’s so lousy at converting them . . . You wonder if there’s more to the Michael story than simply Seattle getting healthier at the position. Maybe it was Michael’s inability to work on special teams. Green Bay has opportunity for Michael, but do you trust Mike McCarthy to unlock any running back’s upside?
$2 Orleans Darkwa
$2 T.J. Yeldon
$2 Alfred Morris
$2 Chris Thompson
$2 Jeremy Langford
$2 Charcandrick West
$2 Andre Ellington
$2 DuJuan Harris
$2 Peyton Barber
$2 Jerick McKinnon
$1 Adrian Peterson
$1 Paul Perkins
$1 Robert Turbin
$1 Wendell Smallwood
$1 DeAndre Washington
$1 Dwayne Washington
$1 Benny Cunningham
$1 Kenneth Farrow
Tight Ends
$31 *Rob Gronkowski
$31 Greg Olsen
$27 Jimmy Graham
$25 Delanie Walker
$23 Jordan Reed
$22 Tyler Eifert
$19 Travis Kelce
$19 *Martellus Bennett
Bennett would get a theoretical bump if Gronkowski misses time, though we also have to recall how much blocking Bennett did early in the year, when Gronk wasn’t availavble . . . I’d immediately have Kelce in the mid-20s if he had a different quarterback. If Tony Romo doesn’t go to Denver next year, could Kansas City possibly have interest?
$16 Eric Ebron
$16 Jason Witten
$14 Zach Miller
$14 Antonio Gates
$14 Cameron Brate
$11 Kyle Rudolph
$8 Zach Ertz
$7 C.J. Fiedorowicz
$6 Julius Thomas
$5 Coby Fleener
$5 Charles Clay
$5 Vernon Davis
$5 Will Tye
It might be hard to trust Fiedorowicz after you saw Ryan Griffin score last week, but I’d stay the course. CJF has five or more targets in six straight games, and the Texans have the second-easiest remaining tight-end schedule, per Player Profiler. In formats where second tight ends are needed or we care about pricing, Fiedororowcz is still of interest to me . . . Fleener’s snap share is dwingling to nothing, as Josh Hill is a better blocker. The Saints don’t trust Fleener that much as a receiver, either.
$4 Vance McDonald
$4 Gary Barnidge
$4 Jack Doyle
$4 Jesse James
$3 Dennis Pitta
$3 Hunter Henry
$3 Ladarius Green
$3 Lance Kendricks
$2 Virgil Green
$2 Austin Hooper
$1 Jared Cook
$1 Dwayne Allen
$1 Clive Walford
$1 Ryan Griffin
$1 Jerell Adams
$1 Jacob Tamme
$1 Josh Hill
