Packers at Cowboys: A rookie quarterback goes against the NFL's hottest star
Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Dallas Cowboys (13-3)
Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET on Fox
PACKERS AT A GLANCE
Key Player: WR Randall Cobb. We all know who THE key player is for the Packers, but we’ll be discussing him plenty. Cobb had a monster year in 2014, signed a big contract and has been banged up and not as productive since. But a healthy Cobb put up three touchdowns against the Giants last Sunday. The Packers need him to play like that if Jordy Nelson is out or limited with a rib injury. Aaron Rodgers might be great, but he still needs guys who can get open.
Why they’ll win: Come on, you know the answer …
Why they’ll lose: As well as Rodgers as played (and if you want to further understand how locked in he is, read this Greg Cosell breakdown of Rodgers’ unbelievable performance last weekend) it’s still a team with limitations. The running game has been patched together with a fullback, a guy wearing No. 88 and someone the Seattle Seahawks decided to cut late this season. If Nelson doesn’t play or isn’t 100 percent – and really, how could he be with broken ribs that put him in the hospital last week? – then the Packers’ receiving group is less formidable. And the defense still has a depleted secondary that allowed 354, 353, 332 and 295 passing yards the last four games. Rodgers is great, but it’s easy to argue the Cowboys are the better team.
Keep in mind: The first time the Packers played Dallas, they allowed a season-high 191 rushing yards. The Packers’ run defense started very well, and has been decent but not great since. They allowed 4 yards per rush, tied for 12th in the NFL. They have allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in 12 of 17 games this season, which is a little promising. The Packers need to make sure Ezekiel Elliott doesn’t crush them on the ground.
COWBOYS AT A GLANCE
Key players: CB Morris Claiborne and DE Demarcus Lawrence. The Cowboys have been without Claiborne for nine games and Lawrence for four. Both returned to practice this week. Assuming Claiborne returns from his groin injury and Lawrence has recovered from his back injury, they could provide huge boosts in coverage and in the pass rush. Those two areas are important against the Packers.
Why they’ll win: Aaron Rodgers can’t make plays if he’s not on the field. The Cowboys were, predictably, very good in time of possession this season. They were second in the NFL, behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Dallas is set up very well to control the clock with Ezekiel Elliott pounding away in the running game behind his big offensive line. That might be the best defense against Rodgers.
Why they’ll lose: We can’t ignore that Dak Prescott is a rookie making his first career playoff start. Not that Prescott didn’t play in any big games in the SEC, but starting against the Packers as the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs is a world away from the Egg Bowl (apologies to anyone in Mississippi who is offended). Rookie starting quarterbacks are 8-15 in the playoffs in NFL history. It’s true that none of those rookies played as well as Prescott (23 touchdowns, four interceptions, rookie record 104.9 rating), and maybe he’ll continue to be an outlier in the playoffs too. But it’s still scary to have a rookie quarterback under center in the playoffs.
Keep in mind: There will be a lot of pressure on the Cowboys. They have not been past the divisional round since January of 1996. The last time they got a first-round bye was 2007, and the New York Giants came to Dallas and upset them. Add in the pressure of perhaps their two most important players, Prescott and Elliott, being rookies in their first playoff game, and it will be a tense game for the Cowboys.
OUTLOOK
This is a marquee matchup in every way. These are two storied franchises, with two of the best fan bases in the NFL. There’s plenty of star power on each side, with perhaps the NFL’s hottest star at quarterback for Green Bay. The Cowboys earned a No. 1 seed this season, without question. They are a good, balanced and well-coached team. But they got a tough draw here. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Rodgers played another perfect game and the Packers moved on.
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
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