Olympic swim trials reveal hard truth about how U.S. stacks up against competition

OMAHA, Neb. – Michael Phelps said a fond goodbye to American fans Saturday night. Maya DiRado continued to have us at hello. Katie Ledecky and Nathan Adrian were the long and short of freestyle greatness, respectively.

Those swimmers cemented their status as the stars of the Olympic trials – Phelps (100-meter butterfly), DiRado (200 backstroke) and Ledecky (800 freestyle) winning their third events of the meet, and Adrian (50 free) winning his second. They own American swimming in 2016.

Will they own the world next month at the Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro? That’s a tougher question.

Beyond the taut drama, close races, surprise finishes and emotional reactions that make this such a compelling event, here is a reality check: this has not been a terribly fast meet. The hard part is still to come.

With 24 of 26 events complete, zero world records have been set and just one American record broken (Josh Prenot in the 200 breaststroke). In a meet where everyone not named Katie Ledecky is theoretically rested and primed to perform at the highest level (she can save the taper for Rio), only 18 percent of the swimmers have beaten their entry times – 14 percent of the females and 20 percent of the males.

It should be noted that those numbers aren’t much different from the 2012 trials. Records were scarce then, too, and only 17 percent of swimmers posted best times. That might simply be the opportunity cost of turning this swim meet into a spectacle that plays out in a basketball arena in front of 14,000-plus fans.

“I think that’s what trials will do,” Phelps said of the depressive effect on times. “I think there are a lot of people that, the lights come on and it’s a different experience.”

The lights in Rio are even brighter. And the competition keeps getting faster.

With the times recorded here, American men are first in the world in 2016 in just two events: Prenot in the 200 breaststroke and Ryan Murphy in the 100 backstroke. American women are first in four: Ledecky in the 200, 400 and 800 freestyles, and Lilly King in the 100 breaststroke.

If you predict a medal count based on 2016 times, the U.S. would have six individual golds, nine silvers and eight bronze. Figuring all six American relays would win medals – not a sure thing, but a reasonable guess – that raises the presumptive total to 29.

In London in 2012, which was a dominant American performance, the medal total was 31. So this year could be comparable. But there was a heck of a lot more gold in the London equation: 16 of them, with nine silver and six bronze.

Thus the next month will be a critical interlude. Swimmers are eternally optimistic that the next swim will be the best one – tinker with mechanics, clean up a start or turn, sharpen the focus, settle the nerves, and watch the magic happen. It’s not always true, of course, but for the Americans it needs to be if they want to maintain global hegemony in the sport.

The one male Olympian who theoretically could take the biggest step forward is none other than Phelps. He hasn’t approached his best times from last summer, when he was No. 1 in the world in the 100 fly, 200 fly and 200 IM. Right now he is second, sixth and second internationally in those events.

“I know if I want to be anywhere on the [medals] podium, some of those times are going to have to be a lot faster,” he said.

Does he have a plan for rediscovering his surprise 2015 speed?

“Bob [Bowman] does,” Phelps said, referring to his coach of the past 20 years. “I hope he does. If not I’m going to have to fire him.”

That was a joke, of course. But Phelps wasn’t joking when he dropped an intriguing tidbit Saturday night when I asked him about his potential relay participation. He’s a lock to be on the medley relay as the butterflyer, but he may find a way onto the 400 and 800 free relays as well.

“It’s up for debate,” he said. “I might time-trial a 100 free tomorrow morning. … I know there is interest from other guys doing the 100 as well, so we could fire up a full heat tomorrow, which would be fun. See how I feel tonight and how I sleep and tomorrow morning. We’ll see. Obviously I would love the chance to be on a relay. … It would probably be coach’s discretion whether or not I’m on the 800.”

The goal of the time trial would be to post a time that demanded Phelps’ presence on the 400 free relay. As for the 800 being left to the coach’s discretion – Bowman is the U.S. men’s coach, which certainly could enhance Phelps’ chances of being a discretionary addition.

Since time trials were invented, they have been low-wattage affairs between competition sessions that are attended by family members only. Phelps could produce the first actual time-trial throng in swimming history Sunday.

On the women’s side, Ledecky doesn’t even need to swim to her best times to be a multi-gold medal favorite in Rio. But expect her to perform at a higher level there and possibly take down her own world records in the 400 and 800 freestyles.

Ledecky burst out quickly in the 800 tonight, raising expectations of a world record, but fell off the pace by the halfway mark. She said she could never get her kick into high gear, a possible casualty of her ambitious schedule over the past week.

In addition to winning the 200, 400 and 800 and claiming a spot on the 800 free relay, Ledecky tried to add the 100 free and 400 free relay to her plate to go for six medals in Rio. But she faltered in the 100 free final, finishing seventh and now needing a coach’s boost for relay inclusion.

Just having the individual 100 out of her way should increase her chances of a memorable Olympics. Less could be more.

“You take three rounds of the 100 out and my schedule sets up a little easier in Rio,” Ledecky said. “So that’s good.”

If there is one swimmer America should be able to count on in Rio, it’s Katie Ledecky. Everyone else needs to step up their game at least a little from Omaha in order for the U.S. to own the Olympic swimming podium as usual.