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NFL MVP, ROY and awards rankings: There are three legit MVP candidates right now

Frank Schwab
NFL writer

Some years, the NFL MVP favorite is pretty clear by December. That’s not the case this year.

There are good candidates, but the race at this point comes down to three players. There can be cases made for others, though it’s an annual tradition for people to make bad MVP arguments to be contrarian. There could be a player or two have a great finish and become legitimate factors in the race by the end (especially New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees if the Saints make a run at the playoffs, or Derek Carr of the Oakland Raiders if he has a big statistical finish), but right now three are in a clear lead.

Here are the three and the argument for and against each:

Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott – I wrote a few weeks ago that Elliott likely wouldn’t win, and I believe that. It’s not due to Elliott’s resume, but voter tendencies. A rookie hasn’t won the MVP award since 1957, the first time MVP was given out. The last 22 MVPs have checked one of three boxes, without fail:

1. Quarterback
2. Running back who sets a single-season touchdown record
3. Running back who rushes for 2,000 yards.

Elliott is very unlikely to break a touchdown record or hit 2,000 yards. Elliott would be a total outlier of an MVP, based on how voters always give out the award.

But he has a great case this season, especially since there’s no easy quarterback to vote for. Elliott has 1,199 rushing yards for a surprising 10-1 team. Since we can’t give the award to the Cowboys offensive line, and Dak Prescott is not a legitimate MVP candidate, if you are swayed by the Cowboys’ great season then Elliott is the pick. Per OddsShark, Bovada is listing Elliott as the favorite at three-to-one odds. But voters haven’t picked anyone like Elliott in a long, long time.

Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan – Ryan will fight preconceived notions. Let’s be honest: It’s hard to wrap your head around Ryan being the NFL MVP. But his resume is MVP-worthy. His 3,516 yards is third in the NFL. He leads the NFL, by far, at 9.3 yards per pass. He’s third in the NFL in touchdown passes (26) and second in rating (114.3).

But Ryan probably needs to put the race out of reach, because guys like Elliott and the next guy on this list will get a lot more publicity, and Ryan will fight perception because he wasn’t great the last few years. If we’re breaking down the race honestly that will probably factor in, even though it’s not fair.

New England Patriots QB Tom Brady – Brady’s problem is he missed four games. No player has ever missed four games and won NFL MVP. But he has the name recognition, the team around him that can put up a great record, and he has great per-game stats. But he can’t have many quiet games. The loss to the Seahawks (no touchdowns, one interception) hurt. But if the Patriots win out (possible), they’ll be 11-1 with Brady. Brady leads the NFL with a 116.7 rating, and that would be the fifth-best mark of all time. Brady will probably be the easiest to vote for, but he also has the smallest margin for error playing a maximum of only 12 games.

Ezekiel Elliott is a legitimate MVP candidate (AP)
Ezekiel Elliott is a legitimate MVP candidate (AP)

Here’s the MVP ballot going into Week 13:

1. Brady – The tipping point might be Dec. 18 at Denver. If he can have a huge game against that defense and the Patriots win, a late flourish like that will be important in the vote.

2. Elliott – I think it would be fun if Elliott won. He would be a deserving MVP. I just keep thinking about voting history and it doesn’t look good for him.

3. Ryan – I don’t think there’s any real separation between the top three. I think Ryan has a fantastic case.

4. New Orleans QB Drew Brees – I’d love to see Brees win an MVP, and he has the numbers for it. But the Saints’ team success will be held against him. I don’t think it’s right that a bad defense should be held against him in the voting, but we all know it will. Let’s put it this way: Brees isn’t the reason the Saints are under .500.

5. Oakland Raiders QB Derek Carr – The problem with Carr isn’t that he hasn’t played well, or hasn’t had had clutch moments, or that his team isn’t fantastic. He has all of that in his favor. But if you’re comparing him to fellow quarterbacks Brady, Ryan or Brees, he hasn’t been been better in any key individual measure. He could still get there, but he’s not in that top tier yet.

Defensive player of the year: I know New York Giants safety Landon Collins is getting a lot of buzz, even some strange MVP buzz, and while he has been excellent he’s not the best defensive player in football. That’s Denver Broncos linebacker Von Miller. Miller leads the NFL with 12.5 sacks, 2.5 more than anyone else, and affects opposing offenses on every play.

The ballot: 1. Miller. 2. Collins. 3. Los Angeles Rams DT Aaron Donald.

Coach of the year: I’m stubborn on Patriots coach Bill Belichick, because he’s the best coach year after year. But it’s time to recognize that Cowboys coach Jason Garrett has done the best job to date this season, taking a rookie backfield to a 10-1 record.

The ballot: 1. Garrett. 2. Belichick. 3. Oakland Raiders coach Jack Del Rio.

Offensive rookie of the year: I wonder if the vote breaks down this way: If Elliott wins MVP or offensive player of the year, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott will get those votes for offensive rookie of the year. But I don’t see how an MVP favorite doesn’t win offensive rookie of the year.

The ballot: 1. Elliott. 2. Prescott. 3. Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz.

Defensive rookie of the year: San Diego Chargers defensive end Joey Bosa is really good, but over his last four games he has just a half of a sack. So he has been passed by Atlanta Falcons safety Keanu Neal, who has been a consistent force for a first-place team.

The ballot: 1. Neal. 2. Bosa. 3. Atlanta Falcons LB Deion Jones.

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!