NFL draft: After Jamie Collins trade, Browns still loaded with 2017 picks
The Jamie Collins trade was a surprise to most, and it was one of only a handful of trades in the past few weeks that involved 2017 draft picks. Even still, there were important ramifications that will help shape next spring’s draft outlook.
As one personnel executive noted to Shutdown Corner privately last week, trades are difficult for a many reasons, but one of the biggest is that teams don’t want to mortgage their futures for non-quarterbacks. The 2016 NFL draft, which featured few trades involving 2017 picks, also demonstrates how teams value future selections. But when the Browns saw the chance to land a versatile player who instantly becomes their most talented defender, they jumped.
Even with Collins slated for free agency and likely to command a massive salary, the Browns felt it worth the risk. If Collins were to walk, the Browns almost certainly would receive a third-round compensatory pick in return in 2018. If the Browns can keep Collins long term, we absolutely must weigh whatever they do next spring with the trade they pulled off this week before the deadline.
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The fact that the Browns could acquire a top-tier talent such as Collins and avoid giving up one of their first- or second-round picks is a huge win for Paul DePodesta, Sashi Brown and Cleveland’s front office. Right now, the Browns would be picking first and 20th overall in Round 1, 33rd and 50th overall in Round 2, and 65th overall to start the third round.
Reports are the Browns will ship either their expected third-round compensatory pick (which they’ll receive for losing Alex Mack) or their fourth-rounder to the New England Patriots in the Collins deal, which will be only a few selections apart (compensatory picks are tacked onto the ends of rounds, and there typically are only a handful at the end of Round 3). Compensatory picks can be traded for the first time in 2017.
The Browns are loaded again with picks next spring — they had 14 this year and all of them initially made the opening 53-man roster. As things stand now, they will own five of the first 65 picks, owning the Philadelphia Eagles’ first-round pick (from the Carson Wentz trade) and the Tennessee Titans’ second-round choice (Jack Conklin-Corey Coleman trade), along with the first pick in each of the first three rounds.
They also should get more compensatory picks for letting their top four free agents walk this offseason, plus they have New England’s fifth-rounder (trading their sixth) in the Barkevious Mingo deal. The Browns could end up with double-digit draft picks once more, and this regime has shown a freewheeling willingness to package them, too.
Now you can see why they’d want to hang onto left tackle Joe Thomas — at least for now. This will be a very young team with uncertainty at quarterback no matter what direction they go next season, and the draft till is already well-stocked. The Browns might not be able to get commensurate value in return for Thomas in the form of a player, or multiple players.
Head coach Hue Jackson is a creative offensive mind who has beautifully manufactured a run game and sprung some movement in the passing game with Terrelle Pryor, Duke Johnson and Gary Barnidge. Corey Coleman returning will give them another big-play option, although adding another big receiver would be nice. But even with Jackson’s strong endorsement of Cody Kessler and the steadying presence of Josh McCown, the Browns almost certainly will need to add a quarterback to the mix from early in the draft.
But even with Collins in the mix, they need a ton of defensive help. You get the vague idea right now that if the Browns were faced with picking a quarterback first overall of a franchise building block on defense, such as Texas A&M pass rusher or Alabama defensive lineman Jonathan Allen, they might choose the latter. They also need off-the-ball linebacker and secondary help in a big way.
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Here’s a look at how the draft order in Round 1 currently shapes up, with teams listed with their record through Week 8 (or the record of the team whose pick it owns). The number in parentheses is opponent’s win percentage, which is the first tiebreaker to determine draft order:
1. Cleveland Browns — 0-8 (.525)
2. San Francisco 49ers — 1-6 (.510)
3. Chicago Bears — 2-6 (.559)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars — 2-5 (.463)
5. Carolina Panthers — 2-5 (.510)
6. Indianapolis Colts 3-5 (.500)
7. New York Jets — 3-5 (.558)
8. San Diego Chargers 3-5 (.590)
9. Baltimore Ravens — 3-4 (.435)
10. Tennessee Titans — via Los Angeles Rams 3-4 (.462)
tied-11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 3-4 (.500)
tied-11. Miami Dolphins — 3-4 (.500)
13. New Orleans Saints — 3-4 (.567)
14. Arizona Cardinals — 3-4-1 (.466)
15. Cincinnati Bengals — 3-4-1 (.549)
16. Tennessee Titans 4-4 (.459)
17. Detroit Lions — 4-4 (.484)
18. Buffalo Bills — 4-4 (.508)
19. Washington Redskins — 4-3-1 (.483)
20. Cleveland Browns — via Philadelphia Eagles 4-3 (.481)
21. Green Bay Packers — 4-3 (.538)
22. Pittsburgh Steelers — 4-3 (.566)
23. New York Giants — 4-3 (.570)
24. Atlanta Falcons — 5-3 (.534)
25. Houston Texans — 5-3 (.581)
26. Seattle Seahawks — 4-2-1 (.413)
27. Eagles — via Minnesota Vikings 5-2 (.481)
28. Kansas City Chiefs — 5-2 (.500)
29. Denver Broncos — 6-2 (.444)
30. Oakland Raiders — 6-2 (.475)
31. Dallas Cowboys — 6-1 (.442)
32. New England Patriots — 7-1 (.435)
Next week, we’ll put together our second mock draft for 2017. A lot has changed over the past few weeks and months to reshape the current draft situation. But we know that the Browns will be big players no matter what.
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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at edholm@yahoo-inc.com or follow him on Twitter!
