NFL against the spread picks: Maybe we can get some good games this weekend

Last weekend was a massive disappointment for the NFL and its fans.

The 19-point average margin of victory was the highest for wild-card weekend since 1981, NFL.com said. All four favorites covered easily. The one positive? We got a bunch of good teams for this weekend’s games. And the Houston Texans, too.

Let’s just hope we get some competitive football this weekend. There are three great matchups, and the fourth one might be interesting if you are concerned about who covers the spread (all the lines are from the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em, as always).

Falcons (-5) over Seahawks: I think any of the three marquee games could end up as the best game of the weekend, and maybe even the entire playoffs. This matchup was really good when the Falcons almost won at Seattle earlier this season.

I figured the line would be lower. Seattle is a brand name, a recent staple in the playoffs, and I don’t think the Falcons have had the national exposure you’d expect from a No. 2 seed. But the line shows there’s a lot of respect for the Falcons’ offense, and for good reason. Matt Ryan should be the MVP of the NFL this season, Julio Jones is arguably the best receiver in football and the Falcons were tied for fourth in the NFL at 4.6 yards per rushing attempt. I like the Seahawks, and it wouldn’t shock me if they won on the road. But I still don’t think their offensive inconsistency is entirely fixed, and without Earl Thomas in the lineup, I think Atlanta can hit some big plays downfield (Greg Cosell looked at that dynamic and more in his Xs and Os breakdown of Saturday’s games here).

Patriots (-16) over Texans: I hate taking double-digit favorites in the NFL, and I should really hate it in the playoffs, but this line still doesn’t even seem high enough (to be honest, I don’t feel great about any pick this week because there are good cases to be made for both sides in each game).

I get why someone would pick the Texans, but you’ll never feel comfortable about it. According to OddsShark the Patriots have covered the spread five games in a row. They’ve covered the spread five straight times against the Texans. The Patriots are rested. The coaches have had an extra week to prepare. With Jacoby Brissett at quarterback earlier this season they beat the Texans 27-0. The one way Houston could pull off a monumental upset is to win the turnover battle, and Tom Brady has two interceptions in 12 games. I don’t know how the Texans score enough points to keep this interesting.

There’s almost no doubt the Patriots win. If the Texans win, it would be the second-biggest upset in NFL history, in terms of point spreads. I think the Patriots cover, too.

Packers (+4.5) over Cowboys: I settled on Green Bay early in the week, but I’m less confident about it now. After thinking about how Dallas dominated the first matchup and how Jordy Nelson’s injury could impact Green Bay’s offense, I’m wondering if we’re ignoring that Dallas was really good all season and is playing a team it beat soundly already.

I’ll stick with the Packers because 4.5 points is a lot for Aaron Rodgers, given how well he’s playing. But it’s still a big challenge for the Packers to keep Dez Bryant and Ezekiel Elliott from making big plays (Cosell discussed that and the Chiefs-Steelers game here). Like every other game this week, I can easily talk myself into the other side.

Steelers (+1.5) over Chiefs: I pick every game because it’s fun and a challenge, but it doesn’t mean I have a strong opinion on all 267 NFL games over a season. This is a prime example.

I think if you played this game 100 times, each side would win 50 times. It’s a great matchup. The Chiefs are a very good team. Their offense has an explosive element with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. The defense has stars at every level. Arrowhead Stadium is a really tough place to play. Andy Reid has a phenomenal record coming off a bye.

However, I’ll pick the Steelers because their offense is really hard to defend. Go figure, the team with perhaps the best running back and best receiver in football is a tough matchup. They’re the hotter team at the moment. But it’s a tough call, like all this weekend’s games are. Hopefully that means we’ll get three good games, to go along with Houston-New England.

Last week: 2-2
Season to date: 132-120-8

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
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