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NFL against the spread picks: Chiefs-Falcons is a huge game for both teams

Frank Schwab
NFL writer

This week might not be the best for compelling matchups, but there will be a good one in Atlanta.

The Atlanta Falcons are one game ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South. The Kansas City Chiefs’ dramatic overtime win over the Denver Broncos puts them one game behind the Oakland Raiders in the AFC West. Even though this is one of those odd non-conference games between two teams with little history against each other, it has enormous ramifications for both.

It’s also strength vs. strength. The Falcons have had a great year on offense, as one of three NFL teams averaging more than 400 yards per game. The Chiefs defense was pretty good even before getting Justin Houston back, and Houston announced he was all the way back last week with three sacks at Denver.

There has to be some concern about how the Chiefs rebound after playing 75 minutes of football last week in high altitude. But I still like them to at least cover the 3.5-point spread (it’s +4 in the SuperContest, and I’m making Kansas City one of my five picks). This seems like a team that could get really hot down the stretch with most of their pieces back. I think they end up catching the Raiders for the AFC West title. Sunday could be a nice step toward that. Enjoy this game; it’s the best of Week 13.

Justin Houston adds a new dimension to the Chiefs defense. (AP)
Justin Houston adds a new dimension to the Chiefs defense. (AP)

SUPERCONTEST

Lions (+6) over Saints: Making a little run up the Team OddsShark standings after a decent past few weeks. And now that I’ve said it out loud, I’m sure the 1-4 week is coming. As for this game, I was a little surprised by this line. The Lions aren’t a great team, and they’ve boosted their record with miracle win after miracle win, but they’re not bad. There will be a ton of points scored. (Lions are -5.5 in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em, which I use for my season record.)

Broncos (-4) over Jaguars: I’m not traveling down this road with the Jaguars again. I know the line is moving toward the Jaguars. I know Trevor Siemian is banged up. But I don’t want to pick the Jaguars, look up on Sunday and realize I’m riding with Blake Bortles against Denver’s defense. (Broncos are -5 in Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

Rams (+13.5) over Patriots: The Patriots haven’t looked dominant for a few weeks now, and Rob Gronkowski is out of the picture too. The Rams underachieve, but we all know they’re capable of playing well against good teams. This just feels like a game that will be kind of ugly.

Steelers (-6.5) over Giants: I’ve said that I don’t believe the Giants are as good as their record, and a tougher schedule will bring them back to earth. So I suppose I have to pick the Steelers here. (Steelers are -6 in Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

And here are the other Week 13 picks:

Vikings (+3) over Cowboys (picked Thursday): Well there’s a lucky backdoor cover. And can we finally figure out how to expand replay review? On a two-point conversion, Sam Bradford was hit in the face mask and officials told him he wasn’t hit in the face mask. It should have been a penalty. It was obvious and easy to review, so why can’t we change things to allow a challenge there?

49ers (+1) over Bears: Maybe Matt Barkley has given the Bears some kind of momentum. And it’s possible that Jordan Howard rushes for a ton of yards against that defense. But I think the 49ers have played better lately with Colin Kaepernick and they’re hungry to break their losing streak after some close calls.

Eagles (-1.5) over Bengals: The Bengals don’t have many offensive weapons, and they don’t have much to play for either. Not a good combination.

Packers (-6.5) over Texans: Maybe Green Bay finally found some rhythm in their offense last Monday night. And when they’re right, they usually play really well at home.

Dolphins (+3) over Ravens: Interesting game. Miami has played well lately. Baltimore has a good defense. Close game, so I’ll take the points.

Bills (+3) over Raiders: I think this is a tough game for the Raiders. I’m also not sure if Derek Carr will be affected by his right pinkie injury. He finished last week’s game with the adrenaline flowing, but we’ll see if there’s any ill effects going forward. Even if Carr is fine, the Bills are a pretty good team and have Sammy Watkins back to provide some big plays for the offense.

Redskins (+2.5) over Cardinals: I have a little concern about Washington’s run defense against David Johnson. But Washington has been the better team overall for a while now, this game is huge for their playoff changes, and I’ll pick them to get it done against a reeling Cardinals team.

Buccaneers (+3.5) over Chargers: I like the Chargers but it seems like picking a hot Buccaneers team and more than three points is the right move.

Seahawks (-6.5) over Panthers: It’s hard to pick Seahawks games. Their peak is incredible. Yet, when they’re bad, they are really bad. I just wonder when the last-place Panthers tap out this season.

Colts (-2.5) over Jets: It’s hard to trust either team. You’d assume the Jets will have a tough time rebounding after losing a heartbreaker to the Patriots last week. And the Colts have a little extra rest.

Last week: 9-5-2
Season to date: 84-88-5
SuperContest: 3-1-1 last week, 30-28-2

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!