Injury Risks: The Fateful Eight
Injuries are a part of the NFL way of life. Even the brawniest of players are at considerable risk to the hazards of being the human equivalent of a crash-test dummy. But, no doubt, some players are more predisposed to doctor visits than others. Here are eight players that, while offering plenty of fantasy football upside, come with a buyer-beware label because of their high health risk – draft with caution, and definitely buy insurance:
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Julian Edelman, NE, WR – Edelman’s game lends itself to nostalgic recollection, which is why he tends to go higher in fantasy drafts than he should. He plays with reckless abandon, catches nearly everything thrown his way and can create separation in a phone booth. He’s clutch, he’s a receptions Hoover … you get the idea. But what many seem to lose sight of on draft day is his inability to stay on the field consistently. Since he entered the league in ’09, he’s sustained at least four concussions, and suffered fractures to his hand (twice), his forearm, his foot (twice) and has sprained his ankle three times. A few of those injuries contributed to him finishing outside the overall top 25 receivers in fantasy each of the past two seasons. Even in his ’13 campaign, the one time he managed to play all 16 games, he finished 18th at the position, which is right about where his ADP sits at in ’16 drafts. That is basically assuming a best-case scenario for Edelman, and that’s just a reckless leap of faith.
Jamaal Charles, KC, RB – Charles has cemented his place as one of the truly great talents at RB in NFL history, with a yards per carry mark (5.5) and many eye-popping performances to prove it. But don’t let that cloud your thinking come draft day. Think about the facts here. This a running back that has had most of two of the past five seasons wiped out because of ACL injuries. He’s also staring at his 30th birthday in December, and he has wore down plenty of tread in the three mostly healthy seasons prior to last year’s second ACL bombshell, averaging right at 300 touches in that span.
Considering that Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West stepped up impressively in Charles’ absence to help lead KC to a 11-2 record (including a playoff victory) to close out the ’15 season, it’s highly unlikely that we’ll see the Chiefs lean on JC for anything close to 300 touches in ’16. As the No. 16 overall player off the board in average Yahoo drafts, I’m advising that you spend your money elsewhere unless you can land him at a little more rational price.
Arian Foster, Mia, RB – The Foster buzz is building steadily now that he’s landed a gig in Miami – he’s top five in ADP gain over the past two weeks – one that looks like it could result in a lead role in the Fins’ backfield. But, even if that is the case, we have to question how long it will last before something physically gives out on the soon-to-be 30-year-old. Foster might have the softest soft tissue in the league, suffering a myriad of maladies – back, groin, hamstring, achilles – leading to an average of more than five missed games per season over the past five years. Any would-be Foster owner needs to prepare a spot on the backend of their virtual roster for his backfield backup Jay Ajayi.
Mark Ingram, NO, RB – Ingram’s coming off rotator cuff surgery, an injury that cost him the final four games of the ’15 season. It adds to an extensive list of health issues that he’s had to deal with in his NFL career, a list that now sounds like the name of a children’s exercise song – hand, shoulder, heel, toe. Those ailments have caused him to miss in the range of 3-6 games in four of his five seasons in the NFL. On a per game basis, Ingram has become a borderline elite fantasy option over the past two seasons, and taking on a major role in the passing game last season added some serious PPR juice to the equation. But, at only 5-feet-9 inches, and also short on elusiveness, he tends to take on a lot of contact.
Says Ingram about preparing his body for the rigors of the game: “You do everything in your power: You train hard, you do all your lifts to prevent injury, deep tissue massage, cold tub, dry needling, fast work, muscle activation techniques, chiropractor, stretching, yoga, pilates, you just do a wide variety of things to make your body flexible and durable so you can make it through a season like that, but a lot of things still have to go your way.”
Unfortunately, we’ve come to a point where we have to assume that, at some point, Ingram will again fall out of favor with the health gods, wiping out at least a few games from his ’16 slate.
Keenan Allen, SD, WR – If Allen ever decided to follow Prince’s lead and change his name to a symbol, a “?” would be the most fitting. Stretching back to his final year of college, Allen has been a training room regular. While at Cal, he had ankle surgery in the spring of ’12, and closed out the calendar year by suffering a PCL tear that cost him his final three games of his senior season. In his three seasons in the NFL, he’s landed on the injury list with a hyperextended knee and shoulder issue (rookie season), ribs, groin, ankle and collarbone (an injury which cost him the final two games of his Year 2 campaign), and a hip injury followed by a season-ending kidney laceration last season. Given his injury history and his limited TD upside (just 8 TDs in his past 22 regular season games), Allen has to rank as one of the most perilous draft selections of the first two rounds.
Jordan Reed, Was, TE – After playing 15 games in each of the past two seasons, Rob Gronkowski has passed the torch to Reed as the standard-bearer of injury risk at the TE position. A 87/952/11 stat line in ’15 has moved Reed into the elite conversation among fantasy tight ends, and he’s currently going inside the top 40 of average Yahoo drafts as the second TE off the board (behind Gronk). But Reed did miss two games last season after suffering a concussion, an injury that he sustained at least twice in college and twice in his rookie year (costing him six games that season). He also missed five games in ’14 because of a hamstring injury and had a stem cell knee procedure after that season concluded. This summer, Reed sat out mini-camp with an ankle issue and missed the Redskins’ first preseason game because of a thumb injury. So, while Reed possesses difference-making athleticism and is in a system that will look to cater to those skills, a high target load only increases his considerable health risk. And, frankly, there’s no comfort to be found in owning a player that has suffered at least five concussions since college.
Jonathan Stewart, Car, RB – Remember when the fantasy community used to cry for Stewart’s freedom from the chains of his platoon with DeAngelo Williams? Well, we’ve now come to find out that a platoon is exactly what this fragile back needs. After a healthy first four seasons with Carolina, Stewart has missed 21 games over the past four seasons, including at least 3 DNPs in each of those campaigns. Adding insult to injury is the fact that when Stewart is on the field, he’s seeing his featured role upside diminished by a QB (Cam Newton) that has a propensity to call his own number at the goal line (Newton has rushed for a total of 43 TDs in his five seasons). Given the realties of the situation, you can’t draft J-Stew with the expectations for anything more than 1,000 total yards and 5-7 TDs.
Ryan Mathews, Phi, RB – If you are counting on more than a dozen games from Mathews, consider yourself an extreme optimist. In his six-year career, he’s averaged right at four DNPs a season, and has only once played more than 14 games. With a clear opportunity to ascend to a lead back role in Philly with DeMarco Murray gone to Tennessee, Mathews has already battled the injury imp this summer, tweaking his ankle while working out on his own in late July. Mathews’ draft day price isn’t exorbitant, typically clocking in around pick No. 70, but you may want to consider instead much cheaper backfield mate Darren Sproles – the veteran is getting ringing endorsements from the Philly media this summer and could wind up handling one of the biggest workloads of his career. He’s shaping up as the real sleeper in the Philly backfield.
