High Fives: Ambassadors of 'Quan

Top 5 players, at least 30 years old by end of ’16, with more in their fantasy tank than expected

1. Brandon Marshall — He’s becoming the Mariano Rivera of football, the player that will burn you every time you try to predict that he’ll start an age-related decline

1. Brandon Marshall – Coming off of a career year, Marshall is the clear favorite for this category. His first two years in any new city have a honeymoon feel to them. With Fitzpatrick back, he’ll be a top 12play again in 2016

1. Tom Brady — Showed no cracks in the dam at 38 as a he ranked top-10 in several key categories. Believe this is his best arsenal to date.

2. Antonio Gates — Ageless wonder’s QB is motivated to get Gates 8 TDs in ’16 to break all-time TD record for TEs – I won’t doubt they can make it happen

2. Carson Palmer – Returning from a second ACL tear, Palmer had a revelatory season in 2015, scoring 36 TDs. I wouldn’t expect top-five fantasy numbers again this year, but there’s no denying the excellent shape he is in and the numerous weapons he’s surrounded by.

2. Arian Foster — Know what you’re thinking, dude would break a bone in pillow fight, but Foster has displayed renewed vigor in camp. In Gase’s offense, should see 16-18 touches/game. Worth dice roll.

3. Justin Forsett — Lots of competition in BAL but expect the vet to keep them at bay as he holds the trust trump card – elite in pass pro, excellent hands and no lost fumbles since ’09

3. Darren Sproles – Reports out of Philly maintain that Sproles appears to be the best RB on the Eagles squad. While he’s more of a role player than a feature back, his ability to produce in the passing game, and in PPR formats, is incendiary.

3. Rashad Jennings — Was a workhorse down stretch last season. Last three games, 63 touches. Averaged 4.4 ypc on year. He’s clear touch frontrunner in rock solid NYG offense.

4. Anquan Boldin — He’s a tiger-blooded warrior – in a pass-happy DET offense that will no longer center around Mega-Tron, I expect Boldin to have a very pleasant bounce-back campaign

4. Frank Gore – In 11 years he’s put up 8 1,000+ rushing yard efforts – just missing his 9th last season. With little depth behind him – and one of the most highly regarded work ethics in the league – the Inconvenient Truth continues to present top 30 appeal.

4. Anquan Boldin — Every year we wait for the inevitable decline, but he remains one of the toughest and steadiest receivers in game. Will have ample opportunities in DET.

5. DeSean Jackson —Still one of the top deep threats in NFL, you can get him cheap – has delivered WR2 level FAN PPG in his 2 seasons in WAS and changing of guard to WR Doctson unlikely to happen this season

5. Anquan Boldin – Last year’s slump had more to do with the dumpster fire in San Fran than Boldin’s ability. A top 25 FF producer the 3 years prior to 2015, Boldin has late-round appeal in Detroit… especially if Eric Ebron can’t stay healthy

5. Gary Barnidge — Not convinced he was the Gary Numan of TEs, a one-hit wonder. Secondary profile very impressive. Undervalued at post-100 ADP.

Top 5 players, at least 30 years old by end of ’16, with less in their fantasy tank than expected

1. Jamaal Charles — Turning 30 in December, and after 2 lost seasons in his past 5 because of major knee injuries, count on a sizable workload reduction in ’16

1. Justin Forsett – His build, age, and injury history won’t allow for workhorse volume. Given the depth of the Ravens’ backfield it’s highly unlikely he’ll ever return to 2014 form.

1. Jamaal Charles — Two major knee surgeries in last five years means his workload will be managed. Spencer Ware is sure to be thorn in JC’s side.

2. Julian Edelman — Easy guy to root for given his slot mastery and kamikaze style, but I’m not touching him in drafts as he’s the most likely player being drafted in the top 50 to miss significant playing time in ’16

2. James Jones – Re-signed by an injury ravaged Packers squad last year, it became clear that Jones could no longer separate. His addition to the Chargers has more to do with adding a veteran presence than being a serviceable substitute in the stead of Stevie Johnson.

2. Frank Gore — I shouldn’t doubt this guy, but at 33, one would assume his legs would waive a white flag any day. Very affordable but also very avoidable.

3. Matt Forte — Lots of mileage, soon to be 31 and looking at giving away a hefty amount of touches to B. Powell – not the kind of cloud I like hanging over a top 40 pick

3. Andre Johnson – A stud in his prime, it’s clear he’s in the twilight of his career. After massively underwhelming in Indy last season, he’s moved to the Titans’ run-first offense – That doesn’t exactly make for a late-career renaissance.

3. Tony Romo — Zeke Elliott was handpicked to help alleviate pressure on Romo. His general fragility and Dallas’ commitment to run arrow to an average season.

4. Steve Smith — It takes a lot for me to ever doubt Smith, and “a lot” can be defined as returning, at age 37, to a crowded BAL receiving corps after suffering a double rupture of his Achilles tendon

4. Tony Romo – Suffering from back stiffness as a result of clavicle surgery, Romo hasn’t been able to get into proper football shape. After a certain age, conditioning becomes crucial. Without it, the injury bug is more likely to bite

4. Matt Forte — Speculation of a near even timeshare with Powell should raise eyebrows. People are overpaying for him in RD4 of non-PPR leagues.

5. Victor Cruz — Once one of my faves, I don’t think he has anything left, at least anything that is above a replacement level WR

5. LeGarrette Blount – The hip injury suffered late in ’15 remains a concern, as does the return of Dion Lewis

5. Larry Fitzgerald — Incredibly consistent producer, but if he hauls in another 100-plus receptions, Katy Perry will accept my advances.

Top 5 players that will most outperform their current ADP

1. Tyrod Taylor — With a true game-breaking stud WR in Watkins and the potential to lead QBs in rush yards, Taylor has legit top 12 potential (was No. 7 in FAN PPG in ’15) falling often outside the top 20 signal callers on draft day

1. Matt Ryan – Had a year to adjust to Kyle Shanahan’s offense, and even created his own camp during offseason to work on everything from schemes to fundamentals. A cerebral and competitive talent, Ryan’s floor will become steady again in 2016.

1. Melvin Gordon — Surface numbers from rookie season are eye-piercing, but ranked top-10 in tackles avoided per attempt. Profits significantly.

2. Thomas Rawls — We already know he fits like a Beast-Mode glove into the SEA run scheme and he’s off the PUP list and looking good for a Week 1 return from ankle injury – No. 15 RB in Y! ADP has legit top 5 RB ceiling

2. Mohamed Sanu – Forget the drops in 2014 and remember the two 100+ outings he put up when A.J. Green and Marvin Jones were sidelined. He’ll be lining up opposite one of the league’s most dynamic receivers in an offense that notched the eighth most pass attempts in 2015. A 70-700-5 season is completely within reach.

2. Sammie Coates — Value on rise with numerous bits of propaganda written, but still a bargain around pick No. 100. Love size/speed blend. WR3 potential.

3. Carlos Hyde — In the Rawls range for ADP, he has huge volume potential in Kelly-run system if he can stay healthy, and he has ability to make something out of nothing (a nice trait if SF O-line issues remain)

3. Rishard Matthews – Kendall Wright appears to be made of paper mache, DGB can’t be trusted, Taje Sharpe is a rookie, and Andre Johnson is past his prime. Matthews is a polished route runner who is bound to emerge as Marcus Mariota’s most consistent target.

3. Josh Ferguson — Diminutive, incredibly agile, versatile and bursty, rookie, though undrafted, exactly what Colts need. He’s this year’s Dion Lewis.

4. Sterling Shepard — Back-end WR3 ADP, but he’s a ready-made WR talent that could see plenty of looks opposite attention-grabber ODB in NYG’s heavy pass attack

4. Jordan Cameron – 2013 feels like a long time ago, but it’s proof that Cameron can produce. Still a metrics freak, Cameron now has Adam Gase – who has a history of elevating the TE position – calling the shots in Miami.

4. Carlos Hyde — Offensive line and defense are concerns, but will routinely work up lathers in Chip’s offense. Stays upright, lands in 325-350 touch range.

5. Frank Gore — Not expecting anything special, just a high volume workload in what should be a top 10 offense – that’s worth much more than his No. 26 RB ADP suggests

5. Bruce Ellington – Expected to man the slot in Chip Kelly’s up-tempo system, Ellington could catch upwards of 65-70 balls in 2016. Relish in his late-round glory, PPR enthusiasts.

5. Tyrod Taylor — Rodney Dangerfield All-Star gets no respect. Finished top-10 in points per game last year. Scoring duality and healthy Watkins say BUY!

Top 5 players that will most underperform compared to their current ADP

1. Julian Edelman — A top 20 WR in ADP that I expect will finish outside top 30 because of DNPs – at this point, it’s not IF he’ll get injured, it’s WHEN

1. Allen Robinson – There’s no disputing Robinson’s talent, but he’s currently being drafted at the top of his value. With a more focused run-game and improvements on defense, the Jags’ passing offense is in store for a regression.

1. Devonta Freeman — Fantasy’s reigning RB king soon to sport tarnished crown. Averaged 3.1 ypc from Week 9 on. Coleman’s role growing.

2. Michael Floyd — Looks like a WR1 but typically posts WR3 digits – never more than 66 catches, 1.054 yards or 6 TDs in any of his 4 full seasons – draft John Brown instead

2. Arian Foster – Foster may look good in camp now, but I maintain that the bulk of his production will come on passing downs. #TeamAjayi

2. Allen Robinson — Extremely talented receiver, but scored 11 of his 14 TDs when Jags were trailing. D advancements and Ivory’s presence inside red-zone imply he tops out in 8-10 TD range.

3. Tyler Eifert — Already regret drafting him in one of my leagues that drafted in July -he’s been the type of player that you should bet “later” rather than “sooner” on his injury return ETAs

3. Josh Gordon – Been away from the game for nearly 2 calendar years. And when he returned in 2014 he looked awfully rusty. Yes, his ceiling is high, but with a 4-game suspension and questions under center, I’m not willing to pay a Round 5-6 draft price.

3. Kelvin Benjamin — Dangerous assumption he picks up where he left off from 2014. Entirely possible Funchess outshines him.

4. Tom Brady — Math is easy for this one – he’s going top 10 in QB ADP, but QBs that play 12 games or fewer, with very few exceptions, don’t finish up in the QB top 20

4. Kelvin Benjamin – In the year that Benjamin spent recovering from an ACL tear, Cam helped bring fellow sky-scraper WR Funchess along. After a year in which Newton did so much with so little, Benjamin no longer appears to be the team’s most obvious option. I just don’t see him being a top-15 target magnet.

4. Jamaal Charles — Avoiding at all costs in drafts due to recent knee troubles and rumblings his workload will be reduced. May only net 14-15 touches per game. And Ware a GL gremlin.

5. Jeremy Langford — He’s a mediocre running talent in a likely crowded platoon behind a suspect O-line

5. Tyler Eifert – Last year was the year to own Eifert. Targeting him in the late-sixth to early-seventh rounds of 12-team exercises is chasing points, especially when considering his lingering ankle issue.

5. Jonathan Stewart — Simply don’t understand the love affair. Perpetually dinged and poached at GL by Cam. He should not be trusted.

Top 5 players that you are buying their preseason hype

1. Sterling Shepard — I started on the bandwagon so pretty easy for me to ride the buzz – NYG now has 2 WRs with cat-like quicks, great hands and excellent route running skills

1. Terrance West – I was digging on Buck Allen’s value, but news of West’s 15 pound weight loss and resulting explosiveness has me intrigued. Back in his hometown and in Marc Trestman’s offense, I’m keeping a close eye on West’s preseason showing.

1. Josh Ferguson — Made splashy play nearly everyday in camp. Will be ‘binky’ for Luck. Bank on 50-plus catches.

2. Brandin Cooks — In Year 3, in a can’t-miss situation in Nola – I’m fine paying the expectant mark up here

2. Eddie Lacy – A notorious slow-starter, I do expect Starks and Lacy to open the season in a timeshare. But if the weight stays off, I foresee some positive bounce-back action.

2. Sammie Coates — Wheaton doesn’t exactly move the meter. Baseline talents and measurables quite good. Recall, Martavis averaged 8.4 tgt/g last year.

3. Sammie Coates — His talent is evident and he’s best fit to fill a Martavis Bryant role – if coaches are saying he’s made huge strides in his development from Year 1 to now, I’m in

3. Sterling Shepard – One of my favorite players coming out of this year’s draft, it doesn’t surprise me to hear that Shepard has been blowing it up in camp. In an offense that pushes the pace, and working opposite OBJ, Shepard’s situation couldn’t be better.

3. Sterling Shepard — Lightning quick feet, wide route tree, reliable hands — former Sooner is about to boom working opposite OBJ. Bank on WR top-30 season.

4. Kevin White — I’m big on Jeffery too – it’s not a pick ’em for me as I think Chicago is going to be ripe for volume in the passing game this season whether it wants to be or not, and I’m buying both Jeffery and White

4. Marvin Jones – The tallest, fastest, and most elusive starting receiver on Detroit’s roster, Jones’ red zone appeal is obvious. A #petplayer of mine since his 2013 breakout, Jones’ reported chemistry with Matt Stafford has me gridiron giddy.

4. Corey Coleman — Currently bothered by tender hammy, but has turned heads with dynamite camp. Explosive and more polished than originally advertised.

5. C.J. Anderson — Denver media member says he could roll up 1,500 yards – hey, I can see it as DEN will run a ton, and Anderson has been a stud when healthy

5. Kevin White – Call it a homer pick, but with Alshon Jeffery playing under the franchise tag, White could be the team’s future. He has yet to do it in pads, but given the Mountaineer’s dazzling athleticism and widely respected work ethic, I’m willing to take a chance on his upside.

5. Terrance West — Believe Ken Dixon will eventually play major role in Ravens backfield, but West looking increasingly likely to start. Fantastic cut runner.