Here’s why '12 draft grades for Broncos, Seahawks and 49ers were comically bad
In 2012, critics panned the Denver Broncos' draft class, calling it the definition of mediocrity. Defensive end Derek Wolfe over Devon Still or Jerel Worthy was a mistake. Quarterback Brock Osweiler made no sense. Defensive end Malik Jackson was undersized. And linebacker Danny Trevathan, well, most had to double-check the spelling of his last name. It was pegged as a draft class of hard-working players who didn't have much buzz. And the average grade on it was exactly that – average.
And that "C" assessment? Four years later, it's below average. Garbage, really.
For all the NFL fans who are poring over draft reports for the next few weeks, eagerly anticipating that first grade on their team's class, keep this one in mind. Four years ago, analysts who loved the Broncos' picks were nonexistent. And now? Well, let the NFL checkbooks do the talking. Four of Denver's seven picks from that class – Wolfe, Osweiler, Jackson and Trevathan – recently inked new contracts that include a whopping $108.5 million in guaranteed money. The "C" draft class landed an "A+" in finances.
This is why it has become the standard to wait four years to get an accurate assessment on an NFL draft. It typically takes one full rookie contract (four years for most draft picks) to get a handle on how it all washed out.
We know the story with Denver. Those four players all played a major part in a Super Bowl-winning season. One re-signed during the season (Wolfe), and the other three departed via lucrative free-agent contracts. Looking four years into the rearview mirror, it was a fantastic draft class. It also includes two other players who will be on NFL rosters next season: running back Ronnie Hillman and safety Omar Bolden. Even offensive lineman Philip Blake will be on a field this year, playing in the Canadian Football League. That's impressive for any draft.
With the Broncos' draft class in mind, here's a look at a few notable highlights from the 2012 draft – now that we've actually got a body of work to pass judgment …
Best class: Seattle Seahawks
Much like the Broncos, this class initially got a frigid reception. The composite grade from five of the major websites covering the draft averaged out to about a C-minus, a scorching example of why instantly grading NFL draft classes is perilous. In hindsight, Seattle's draft was an A-plus, leaving a lot of egg on the faces of critics (and fans, who graded the class a "C" on NFL.com).
Three picks were instant hits and significant foundational pieces to a Super Bowl win: Linebacker Bruce Irvin (first round), linebacker Bobby Wagner (second round) and quarterback Russell Wilson (third round). Seventh-round defensive end J.R. Sweezy was converted into a solid offensive guard and started three seasons (including both Super Bowl appearances) before departing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a coveted free agent. Meanwhile, sixth-round cornerback Jeremy Lane has been injury prone, but had some moments. And fourth-round defensive end Jaye Howard has been a productive NFL starter for the Kansas City Chiefs. Unfortunately, Seattle cut him after a disappointing rookie season, allowing him to blossom elsewhere.
But here is what is amazing about this class: the other four picks in the class – running back Robert Turbin (fourth round), linebacker Korey Toomer (fifth), safety Winston Guy (sixth) and defensive end Greg Scruggs (seventh) – all played in the NFL last season. That means Seattle's entire 10-player draft class was on a roster four years later. There aren't many double-digit draft classes that last four NFL seasons. That, along with the star power, makes this one special.
Worst class: San Francisco 49ers
There are bad classes, and then there is the total crash and burn. The latter describes the 49ers' 2012 draft. The numbers spelling out the futility of this haul are stunning: seven players drafted notched a combined four NFL starts with the Niners. Zero players were on San Francisco's roster last season. The class contributed almost nothing to the Niners. They traded a third-round pick in a deal that netted a 2013 fifth-rounder from the Indianapolis Colts, a pick that eventually became defensive end Quinton Dial. But even the solid rotational defensive end from the 2013 class couldn't save this dud.
The damage starts at the top and doesn't get much better. First-round pick A.J. Jenkins was traded to the Chiefs after only one season (for Jon Baldwin, who started one game for San Francisco). Three other picks never made it beyond one year on the Niners' roster: safety Trenton Robinson (sixth round), offensive lineman Jason Slowey (sixth) and defensive end Cam Johnson (seventh). Knee injuries kept linebacker Darius Fleming on injured reserve for the balance of two years, but he was released after never playing a regular-season game. Second-round running back LaMichael James got some limited touches but never caught on and was released after playing in 15 games over slightly more than two seasons. That leaves guard Joe Looney as the redeeming piece of the class. He played 19 games in three seasons, starting four.
The initial grades of this class? Fans rated it a B on NFL.com, and analysts from five of the biggest outlets covering the draft averaged out to roughly a C+. In hindsight, far too optimistic.
Biggest late-round success: Josh Norman, Carolina Panthers It took a few years for him to round into elite form, but getting Norman in the fifth round (143rd overall) was a massive win for the Panthers. Particularly considering the most hyped cornerback in the draft came off the board at No. 6 overall – the massively disappointing Morris Claiborne to the Dallas Cowboys. Carolina's draft wasn't strong top-to-bottom, but it landed two All-Pros who make all the difference: Norman and first-round linebacker Luke Kuechly.
Biggest early round failure: Justin Blackmon, Jacksonville Jaguars
Blackmon came off the board fifth overall and hasn't played in two years due to substance-abuse issues. His 20 total games in 2012 and 2013 showed flashes of brilliance, but for Jacksonville that makes this pick only all the more painful. Blackmon swore off drinking after his rookie season, but it continued to be a problem. He ultimately had three substance-related arrests before the NFL suspended him indefinitely in the middle of the 2013 season. There's no telling if he'll ever seen an NFL field again.
Pick that set a franchise back: Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
There's no need to rehash one of the roughest draft trades in history, outside of remembering that the Redskins traded three first-round picks and one second-rounder to St. Louis for the right to draft Griffin. RG3 is in Cleveland this coming season and didn't see the field for Washington last season. In the right hands, those picks could have set the Redskins' future up nicely. Instead, Griffin was amazing and then a whole lot less … and everyone got fired. Except for the team owner, of course.
Pick that saved a franchise's butt: Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins
It's unclear if there was a saving grace for the massive Griffin trade, but taking Cousins in the fourth round (102nd overall) of the same draft might be it. Cousins showed some big strides last year, dominating a lot of mediocre teams. The Redskins will (begrudgingly) pay him almost $20 million next season to prove he's the franchise cornerstone. If he is, this could bail out the Griffin failure.
Three more thoughts
• From the standpoint of starting quarterbacks, 2012 was a good year. Five picks are locks to start next season: Andrew Luck (Colts), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Ryan Tannehill (Miami Dolphins), Kirk Cousins (Redskins) and Brock Osweiler (Texans). Two more quarterbacks will compete for a starting job next season – RG3 in Cleveland and the Los Angeles Rams' Nick Foles. To move into the fifth year of a class and potentially have seven starters at quarterback from one draft is pretty strong.
• The offensive tackle class in 2012 turned out to be less than spectacular. But there was a wealth of good starting guards, including Kelechi Osemele (drafted by the Baltimore Ravens), David DeCastro (Pittsburgh Steelers), Kevin Zeitler (Cincinnati Bengals), Brandon Brooks (Houston Texans) and Jeff Allen (Chiefs).
• Don't always buy into the "you can always get a running back in the draft" theme. Here were the ones taken in the top three rounds in 2012: Trent Richardson (first round), Doug Martin (first), David Wilson (first), Isaiah Pead (second), LaMichael James (second), Ronnie Hillman (third) and Bernard Pierce (third). Of those seven players, Martin is the only bona fide starter in that bunch heading into next season. And even Martin is a gamble after sandwiching two great years around two awful ones.
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