Cam Newton, Panthers paying heavy price for Moneyball-like approach
Coming off a Super Bowl loss, the Carolina Panthers were about salary-cap discipline. General manager Dave Gettleman preached patience and measure. And when it came to making roster decisions – like letting All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman walk away – everything was about the overall financial design.
“You have to balance the needs of the team now with the needs of the team in a couple of years,” Gettleman told Yahoo Sports in June. “You have to plan. I’m very methodical and intentional about what I do [and] about the decisions we make. You have to be that way with the salary cap, because it’s going to cost you.”
Nearly four months later, Carolina is sitting at an inexplicable 1-3 start and there are key phrases that resonate from that moment:
The needs of the team now, versus the needs of the team in a couple years.
It’s going to cost you.
The Panthers have needs now. And the conservative offseason has been costing them. Not just against the Atlanta Falcons. Not just against Julio Jones, who caught 12 passes for an absurd 300 yards. No – there have been a handful of other problems, too. And their existence has plenty to do with the strict financial design that has left the Panthers with weak spots.
Start with Norman, the flawed but aggressive cornerback who thrived on facing elite players and coming up in pressure situations for the Panthers. The same Norman who allowed a touchdown to Cleveland Browns wideout Terrelle Pryor on Sunday, but made amends by sealing the Washington Redskins win with a late fourth-quarter interception deep in Cleveland territory.
In the eyes of the Panthers, Norman was an imperfect match. He lacked elite speed. He had a colorful disposition and attitude. He was expensive. At the end of the day, the argument was they couldn’t give a player like that a franchise cornerback deal. So the Panthers and Gettleman deemed Norman expendable and saw other ways to use his salary slot. They let him go and then extended offensive tackle Michael Oher. They tried (and failed) to get a long-term deal done with Kawann Short. Mostly, they planned for the future – 2017, 2018, 2019 – because in Gettleman’s book, you can’t deviate from the long-term outlook.
But the Panthers should be built to consistently contend for the Super Bowl right now. And teams sometimes have to sacrifice a little down the road to maximize a championship window in the immediate future. After all, what’s the use of stretching out a Super Bowl window if you don’t occasionally take an over-the-top shot to win a title within it?
The Panthers could have taken some more shots this offseason. They could have made a few more moves, spent a few more million and not left anyone second-guessing about the imperfections that are becoming more apparent on the roster. Instead Carolina is grappling with this: a 1-3 team that is looking like an inconsistent facsimile of the Super Bowl edition; a pair of subpar offensive tackles; a thin and mediocre set of running backs; a franchise quarterback in Cam Newton who is getting hammered; and a defensive secondary that is seemingly only as good as the front seven makes it.
And lest we forget the plan – a roster that is almost $19 million below the salary cap. That’s great for later, but it isn’t paying big dividends right now.
None of this is meant to completely skewer Gettleman’s approach. He’s not the first general manager to stick to his guns when it comes to the overall health of his salary structure. Particularly considering some absurd contracts being doled out last offseason, including the $75 million deal the Redskins gave Norman. Gettleman certainly wasn’t the only spendthrift general manager in the league this offseason. His discipline in that respect is admirable, as is his penchant for always keeping an eye toward the future.
But there are other admirable qualities that can define general managers and franchises, too. Things such as measured cap flexibility, picking spots, recognizing vital moments and exceptions. The Panthers haven’t seemed to show a great embrace of those approaches. That saved them a lot of money this season and set them up for the future. But it has also cost them right now. And not just in the case of Norman.
Clearly, Norman would have been a useful piece against the Falcons. While he has been up and down for the Redskins, he has consistently challenged the man across from him. He has made some big plays and brought a refreshed mentality to the Redskins secondary. That could have been useful for the Panthers.
Norman may not even be the biggest problem for the Panthers. Not with Newton getting drilled consistently and finally (inevitably) entering the concussion protocol after taking a blow to the head against the Falcons. The same offensive tackles who looked terrible against the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl have been just as problematic this season.
Ask other pro personnel evaluators about Oher, who was out with a concussion Sunday. What they tell you is this: He’s a mediocre player who is viewed by the Panthers as serviceable largely because he doesn’t require an elite left tackle salary. He is cost-efficient. Sound familiar? And right tackle Mike Remmers, who filled in for Oher on Sunday? One personnel evaluator told Yahoo Sports on Sunday that Remmers likely wouldn’t be a starting tackle for most other NFL teams.
That’s what is protecting the franchise quarterback and defending league MVP. A cost-efficient but mediocre left tackle. A right tackle who is viewed elsewhere as a backup. Meanwhile, the running back depth behind the oft-injured Jonathan Stewart continues to be the less-than-inspired duo of Fozzy Whittaker and Cameron Artis-Payne. The defensive front seven has its own brand of problems, too – with few impact edge rushers to speak of.
Every problem can’t be fixed in one offseason. Not in the era of exploding free-agent contracts. But there were some economical options on the table, and the Panthers had the money to plug in upgrades. Left tackle? How about the extremely team-friendly deal doled out to Russell Okung by the cap-strapped Denver Broncos? He could have been pursued by the Panthers but wasn’t. Right tackle? How about the extremely team-friendly deal signed by Mitchell Schwartz with the Kansas City Chiefs? He’s another option who could have helped in Carolina, but never got a sniff.
Running back depth? Matt Forte signed a team-friendly deal with the New York Jets and has been a superb value. LeGarrette Blount – with a perfectly fitting pounding style – has been a steal for the New England Patriots on a one-year deal. Christine Michael? Ronnie Hillman? Lance Dunbar? All available options. None explored.
Hindsight is 20-20 in all of this. And even at 1-3, the Panthers should still be a team that is fighting for the playoffs until the end of this season. But this is a franchise that should be consistently elite at this point. Instead, it’s struggling to protect its most valuable asset and showing signs of fatigue in spots that either could have been upgraded or were allowed to get worse because of money.
It all boils down to this: What’s more important right now – the Panthers’ $19 million in cap space and expanding the Super Bowl window, or the beating being absorbed by Newton, which risks the entire championship opportunity in 2016 and beyond?
When sharing his mindset about the cap and the long-term plan for the Panthers, Gettleman said something telling about his tenure as general manager. He goes to sleep every night believing he learned a little more. Maybe a little more about his roster, or a little more about his coaches. Maybe a little more about himself.
As he put it, “As soon as you stop learning, it’s the old saying, ‘If you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse.’ ”
The Panthers seem to have gotten a little worse since the Super Bowl loss. The cap space is in great shape, but parts of the team aren’t. Surely there’s some kind of lesson inside that.
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